Another NFL season is upon us, with these predictions coming a tad bit late following Thursday night's opener, a 16-7 Giants victory over Washington. Here's how I see this season playing out, although these picks mean little seeing as how I picked a Cincinnati/New Orleans Super Bowl last year and both teams failed to qualify for the playoffs. Hopefully I'll fair a little better in 2008:
AFC East:
1. Patriots
2. Jets
3. Bills
4. Dolphins
Outlook: Even with the addition of Brett Favre and stronger teams in Buffalo and Miami, the Patriots remain the cream of the AFC crop. Say all you want about the defense being old and Tom Brady being injured, but it's hard to turn your back on a team that was one defensive stand away from finishing 19-0 in February. New England didn't undergo much change this offseason unlike the rest of the division and with the easiest schedule in the NFL, they could make another run at history. Although that is unlikely, there is little doubt here that they will sit atop an improved AFC East once again.
AFC North:
1. Steelers
2. Bengals
3. Browns
4. Ravens
Outlook: Many feel after last season's 10-6 showing that Cleveland will finally break through and win the North. Not me. Take a look at the Browns starting secondary: Eric Wright, Sean Jones, Brodney Poole and Brandon McDonald. If you think that is a playoff-caliber secondary, you have another thing coming. The NFL is a league of quarterbacks and it's becoming more of a "throw the ball and stop the pass" league than the flip side. Maybe they'll prove me wrong by shutting down the passing machine that is the Dallas Cowboys in Week 1, but probably not. I'm also not convinced Derrick Anderson is anything more than a one hit wonder. The Steelers are still the team to beat in the North. They have the best quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger, the strongest running game and one of the league's most underrated receiving corps, led by one of my favorites, Hines Ward. They also have the defense to keep them in games against high powered offenses that show up on their schedule, such as Indy, Dallas, San Diego and New England. The same cannot be said for the other three teams in this division.
AFC South:
1. Colts
2. Titans
3. Jaguars
4. Texans
Outlook: You wonder when the South standings are going to be shaken up and although I have the Colts winning the division, this could be the year. Peyton Manning is hurt, as is Jeff Saturday and Marvin Harrison is old. The defensive front is still small, Dwight Freeney is still overrated and they start two linebackers that I've never heard of. The pick simply came down to Manning being better than Vince Young and David Garrard because aside from that I like both the Titans and Jaguars more than the Colts. They sport two of the league's top defenses and have a few sleepers on offense. Chris Johnson, the Titans 1st round pick in April, has looked dangerously explosive during the preseason. Jacksonville's starting receivers, Jerry Porter and Troy Williamson, come to town with baggage, but both have ability and have been given the fresh start they had been seeking. As for the Texans, they'll go down as one of the best last place teams in NFL history. It's too bad they are stuck in such a loaded division.
AFC West:
1. Chargers
2. Raiders
3. Broncos
4. Chiefs
Outlook: There isn't much to debate here. The Chargers are arguably the best team in football and the Raiders, Broncos and Chiefs could all find themselves drafting in the top-10 next April as I can't see any of them finishing above .500. The only question is how early will the Chargers clinch the division title. New England wrapped up the East before December last season and it wouldn't be a surprise if LT and the Bolts did the same in '08.
NFC East:
1. Cowboys
2. Redskins
3. Giants
4. Eagles
Outlook: Like the AFC South, this division has four playoff-caliber teams, but unlike the South, there is no question who the best team in the East is. The Dallas Cowboys are loaded. They added Zach Thomas and Adam Jones to the defense giving them something like 28 Pro Bowlers on the roster. If they don't at least represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, this season is a failure, plain and simple. I think Wade Phillips, Jerry Jones, Tony Romo, TO and every Cowboys fan on earth would tell you the same. As for the other three teams, they'll all battle one another for one of the two wild cards. I don't see three teams from this division making the playoffs and if I had to choose right now, I'd take the Redskins over the other two. Jason Campbell is poised for a breakout year, although he certainly didn't look the part Thursday night, and he has a few weapons in Clinton Portis, Santana Moss and tight end Chris Cooley. The defense added future Hall of Famer Jason Taylor to an already solid front seven. As long as they don't fall behind early while adjusting to new head coach Jim Zorn's system, they should have enough to hold off the Giants and Eagles.
NFC North:
1. Vikings
2. Packers
3. Lions
4. Bears
Outlook: If Adrian Peterson can stay healthy for all of the 2008 season, the Vikings should win this division race which is primed to be one of the NFL's closest in 2008. It might not be that close, but for some ungodly reason, Tavaris Jackson is still their starting quarterback. But the defense is still loaded with playmakers and ball control and solid defense will take you a long way in the NFL. For the first time in almost two decades, Brett Favre will not be under center for Green Bay, but don't expect the wheels to fall off as a result. Aaron Rogers is ready and he'll have help from Donald Driver, Ryan Grant and a solid defense. The Lions started 2007 6-2 and made Jon Kitna look like a genius on his preseason call that they would win 10 games. That was before they dropped their last eight and proved him to be the idiot that he is. I can't quite figure out why Detroit is so bad all the time because they really do have talent, however, I can't pick them any higher until that talent actually accounts for more wins. And in other news, the Chicago Bears, who were in the Super Bowl 18 months ago, actually had a quarterback competition between Kyle Orton and Rex Grossman this summer. Orton, Grossman, Orton, Grossman.. does it even matter? And Daunte Culpepper retired from football this week because he can't find a job. That's rather puzzling when analyzing the Bears quandary.
NFC South:
1. Saints
2. Panthers
3. Buccaneers
4. Falcons
Outlook: The Saints stole Jeremy Shockey this summer and could end up with the best record in the NFC, even though Dallas is the team to beat. That's because the South plays the NFC North and the pitiful AFC West this season so they should pile up the wins even though they aren't as good as the record may show. We'll have to wait until January to find out. The Panthers, because of the same reason, should squeeze in to the last playoff spot despite not being better than teams such as the Packers and Giants who could be on the outside looking in. But don't overlook Carolina. They have Jake Delhomme back, along with two solid running backs in DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. We all know what Steve Smith can do once he returns from suspension and they sport the best defense in the division. The Bucs have enough talent to stay in the playoff picture for much of the season and the Falcons will still be horrible, but will be more fun to watch and see how they ruin Matt Ryan's career before it even had a chance. Too bad, he really has the makings of a star.
NFC West:
1. Seahawks
2. Cardinals
3. Rams
4. 49ers
Outlook: The NFC West is much like the AFC version with Seattle being the only playoff-caliber team in the division, much like San Diego is in the AFC West. The Cardinals have some talent on offense, but Anquan Boldin wants out and Kurt Warner is 100. They say they won't trade Boldin because they are going to make a run at the playoffs, but the Cardinals have zero chance of making the playoffs. None. Zilch. Zippo. If the 'Hawks can get their receivers healthy, they should have another good season, and here's hoping they do since it's supposedly the last for one of the game's best coaches in Mike Holmgren. And real quickly, since this really doesn't deserve much attention, the 49ers spent their summer deciding who would be the quarterback between 1st pick bust Alex Smith, JT O'Sullivan and Shaun Hill. Why didn't Drew Olsen get a fair shot? He is afterall on the roster and looking at those names, that seems to be the only requirement. But I digress. Why on earth wouldn't they bring in Culpepper for a look? Just a look. I'd be willing to bet my well being that he could walk in next week and be a better option than any of those three. Just a hunch.
AFC Playoffs:
1. Patriots
2. Chargers
3. Steelers
4. Colts
5. Titans
6. Jets
Just Missed: Jaguars
NFC Playoffs:
1. Cowboys
2. Saints
3. Vikings
4. Seahawks
5. Panthers
6. Redskins
Just Missed: Packers, Giants
Wild Card:
Steelers over Jets, Titans over Colts
Vikings over Redskins, Panthers over Seahawks
Divisional:
Patriots over Titans, Chargers over Steelers
Cowboys over Panthers, Saints over Vikings
Conference Championships:
Chargers over Patriots
Cowboys over Saints
Super Bowl:
Cowboys: 27
Chargers: 21
MVP: DeMarcus Ware
Awards:
MVP: Tony Romo
Coach of the Year: Sean Peyton
Offensive POY: Adrian Peterson
Defensive POY: DeMarcus Ware
Offensive ROY: Darren McFadden
Defensive ROY: Leondis McKelvin
Comeback POY: Ricky Williams
NostraDTMus
Saturday, September 6, 2008
Saturday, August 9, 2008
Pulse on Fins/Jets following QB upgrades
The Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets, already one of the NFL's more storied rivalries, just got a bit more venomous after some serious movement on the quarterback carousel. Sports' most annoying legend, Brett Favre, finally settled his beef with the only franchise he had ever played for and was shipped to the Big Apple to complete a very active offseason for the Jets. As a result of Favre's arrival, New York released veteran starter Chad Pennington after he led them to three playoff appearances in his eight seasons there. Roughly 36 hours later, Bill Parcells brought Pennington, the quarterback he drafted while leading the Jets eight years ago, to Miami to end their quarterback competition that was going nowhere. Round and round we go.
The events of the past few days have changed the Dolphins/Jets Week 1 battle from the week's most meaningless train wreck of a game between two bottom feeders into one of the more intriguing games in the opening stanza of the 2008 season. Favre alone would create a media circus, but Pennington starting for his old rival against the team that kicked him to the curb hours after the acquisition makes it all the juicier. My money is still on the J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets, as it would have been had Favre stayed in Mississippi and Pennington, or Kellen Clemens or Vinny Testeverde were starting for the Gang Green. But how much better do the changes under center in Miami and New York really make these two teams that were 0-12 and 2-9, (dis)respectively, the last time they met in Miami? Let's have a looksy.
Start with the Jets. Bringing Favre to town instantly makes them a playoff CONTENDER. He does not assure them of a playoff spot nor does he make them one of the top three favorites to come out of the AFC this season. New York out-spent every team in the NFL by a wide margin this offseason, but more often than not, they overspent on the free agents they brought in. Giving $30M+ to thirty-two year-old Alan Faneca? Undoubtably a move that makes the team better today, but they will regret that contract in two years. Giving Calvin Pace $32M? One rule to follow when trying to build a successful franchise is you never give a dime of your money to a free agent defender from the Arizona Cardinals. Lastly, maybe the worst signing of the offseason was the 5-year, $25.5M contract they gave ex-DETROIT LION OL Damien Woody. After losing his job at center last season, the Lions moved Woody to right guard. He apparently was so bad that he was benched and placed on the inactive list for three games. Jets management felt it would be a good idea to throw millions at Woody and put him at right tackle, a position he has never played in his life. So to recap, the Jets overpaid on a lineman in his mid-30's, and players from the Lions and Cardinals. Well, at least they're bringing in winners.
Anyway, I really digressed there. The point is, the money the Jets are giving Favre may be the only money they get a return on. However, Faneca, at least for a season, will make New York's O-line formidable, which will give Favre enough time to throw to his new receivers. Laveraneus Coles and Jerricho Cotchery rarely get much TV time, but are two of the better pass catchers in the NFL. They go from good to possibly great playing with Favre. The offense has other playmakers such as running backs Thomas Jones and Leon Washington, so offense won't be the problem. For all the money they spent, the Jets didn't do much to upgrade the defense, which ranked 18th and allowed 22 points per game last year.
If Favre has another year like 2007, the Jets will be able to win by outscoring teams. With that being said, the 2005 and 2006 versions of Favre are not as distant as they may seem so that's a dangerous strategy to play on. My guess is Favre plays below the level he played at last season, but much closer to that than 2005-06. He and his new team will be aided by one of the NFL's easier schedules that has them playing the NFC and AFC West, with conference games against NO-D Cinnci and Denver, which should bring enough wins to squeeze New York into the playoffs. Prediction: 10-6, 2nd in AFC East, #6 seed in AFC.
There isn't as much to debate with Pennington and the Dolphins because his presence doesn't turn Miami into a playoff team or even a contender for the Wild Card. This much is true about Pennington: he is experienced, a great leader and, when healthy, extremely accurate. In fact, he is the most accurate passer in NFL history, and he should be because he rarely throws passes over 15 yards since his arm isn't strong enough to do so. He brings a 32-29 record as a starter and the aura of someone who has, ya know, actually been in the playoffs the past six years. The biggest problem is that Pennington has been a Dolphin killer throughout his career, meaning that he is now playing for the team in the division that he was guaranteed to beat twice this season. He was 1-7 as a starter in 2007. The one win? A 31-28 victory over the Fish, in which he accounted for three touchdowns (2 passing, 1 rushing). He had just eight touchdowns in the other seven games he started.
The thinking here is Pennington is a major upgrade over Josh McCown or Jon Beck and will fit nicely into Miami's run-first offense. And he doesn't have to worry about his weak arm affecting the offense because the Dolphins don't have any receivers that can stretch the field anyway, making his dink and dunk style an effective one for this team. His accuracy and leadership should help Miami win a few of the seven games they lost by three points or less in 2007. If nothing else, his presence will allow rookie Chad Henne to watch and learn on the sideline for a year, rather than being thrown into the fire too early. Prediction: 6-10, 4th in AFC East.
DTM
The events of the past few days have changed the Dolphins/Jets Week 1 battle from the week's most meaningless train wreck of a game between two bottom feeders into one of the more intriguing games in the opening stanza of the 2008 season. Favre alone would create a media circus, but Pennington starting for his old rival against the team that kicked him to the curb hours after the acquisition makes it all the juicier. My money is still on the J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets, as it would have been had Favre stayed in Mississippi and Pennington, or Kellen Clemens or Vinny Testeverde were starting for the Gang Green. But how much better do the changes under center in Miami and New York really make these two teams that were 0-12 and 2-9, (dis)respectively, the last time they met in Miami? Let's have a looksy.
Start with the Jets. Bringing Favre to town instantly makes them a playoff CONTENDER. He does not assure them of a playoff spot nor does he make them one of the top three favorites to come out of the AFC this season. New York out-spent every team in the NFL by a wide margin this offseason, but more often than not, they overspent on the free agents they brought in. Giving $30M+ to thirty-two year-old Alan Faneca? Undoubtably a move that makes the team better today, but they will regret that contract in two years. Giving Calvin Pace $32M? One rule to follow when trying to build a successful franchise is you never give a dime of your money to a free agent defender from the Arizona Cardinals. Lastly, maybe the worst signing of the offseason was the 5-year, $25.5M contract they gave ex-DETROIT LION OL Damien Woody. After losing his job at center last season, the Lions moved Woody to right guard. He apparently was so bad that he was benched and placed on the inactive list for three games. Jets management felt it would be a good idea to throw millions at Woody and put him at right tackle, a position he has never played in his life. So to recap, the Jets overpaid on a lineman in his mid-30's, and players from the Lions and Cardinals. Well, at least they're bringing in winners.
Anyway, I really digressed there. The point is, the money the Jets are giving Favre may be the only money they get a return on. However, Faneca, at least for a season, will make New York's O-line formidable, which will give Favre enough time to throw to his new receivers. Laveraneus Coles and Jerricho Cotchery rarely get much TV time, but are two of the better pass catchers in the NFL. They go from good to possibly great playing with Favre. The offense has other playmakers such as running backs Thomas Jones and Leon Washington, so offense won't be the problem. For all the money they spent, the Jets didn't do much to upgrade the defense, which ranked 18th and allowed 22 points per game last year.
If Favre has another year like 2007, the Jets will be able to win by outscoring teams. With that being said, the 2005 and 2006 versions of Favre are not as distant as they may seem so that's a dangerous strategy to play on. My guess is Favre plays below the level he played at last season, but much closer to that than 2005-06. He and his new team will be aided by one of the NFL's easier schedules that has them playing the NFC and AFC West, with conference games against NO-D Cinnci and Denver, which should bring enough wins to squeeze New York into the playoffs. Prediction: 10-6, 2nd in AFC East, #6 seed in AFC.
There isn't as much to debate with Pennington and the Dolphins because his presence doesn't turn Miami into a playoff team or even a contender for the Wild Card. This much is true about Pennington: he is experienced, a great leader and, when healthy, extremely accurate. In fact, he is the most accurate passer in NFL history, and he should be because he rarely throws passes over 15 yards since his arm isn't strong enough to do so. He brings a 32-29 record as a starter and the aura of someone who has, ya know, actually been in the playoffs the past six years. The biggest problem is that Pennington has been a Dolphin killer throughout his career, meaning that he is now playing for the team in the division that he was guaranteed to beat twice this season. He was 1-7 as a starter in 2007. The one win? A 31-28 victory over the Fish, in which he accounted for three touchdowns (2 passing, 1 rushing). He had just eight touchdowns in the other seven games he started.
The thinking here is Pennington is a major upgrade over Josh McCown or Jon Beck and will fit nicely into Miami's run-first offense. And he doesn't have to worry about his weak arm affecting the offense because the Dolphins don't have any receivers that can stretch the field anyway, making his dink and dunk style an effective one for this team. His accuracy and leadership should help Miami win a few of the seven games they lost by three points or less in 2007. If nothing else, his presence will allow rookie Chad Henne to watch and learn on the sideline for a year, rather than being thrown into the fire too early. Prediction: 6-10, 4th in AFC East.
DTM
Monday, July 21, 2008
Taylor To Washington Bittersweet Move For Dolphins
He deserves thanks, appreciation and respect for all of the skill and passion he showed on the field, and for all of the class he showed off of it. The Dolphins traded Jason Taylor on Sunday, and, yes, it was a very good trade. But that doesn't mean it has to feel good.- Greg Cote of the Miami Herald.
Jason Taylor, the face of the Miami Dolphins franchise since Dan Marino's retirement in April 2000, was officially introduced as the newest member of the Washington Redskins yesterday. Despite the inevitability of the situation, the Taylor trade is as bittersweet as they come. Bitter because No. 99 was the best player on the team since Danny Boy left and, aside from the reality of Miami's bleak situation, gave fans and teammates hope that his presence alone could deliver a victory on any given Sunday. Bitter because his departure leaves those once hopeful fans with no justifiable reason to actually watch this season. Bitter because it is now official that Taylor joins a group of Dolphins greats that left town without a championship, underlining the fact that management wasted the elite years of his career. And bitter because his career in South Florida could not have ended any worse with a 1-15 finish in his farewell season and seven months of animosity between he and the new regime that had fans and analysts questioning his loyalty and love for the game. Loyalty? Miami hasn't been to the playoffs since the 2001 season and has had five head coaches in that six year span. If Taylor didn't have loyalty in his blood, don't you think he would've bolted for another city three or four years ago?
Now to the sweet part of the deal. Miami netted a second round pick in 2009 and a sixth round pick in 2010. Sweet. Taylor is the game's best pass rusher and one of the five best defenders in football. He is someone that teams spend an entire week game planning around and there aren't many players on the defensive side of the ball you can say that about. He has 100.5 sacks in the post-Marino years (2000) and second place is not close. Recently retired Michael Strahan is next with 89, a full season's worth of sacks behind JT. All that gets you a second round pick and a player who will be one of the team's first cuts in the summer of 2010? Sweet.
The great thing about all this is that it got Taylor out of Miami and gives him a chance at the storybook ending his illustrious career deserves. As nice as it would've been for him to finish with a 4-12 bang in aqua and orange, it would be much more fitting if he were to go out on top by bringing the Lombardi Trophy back to the nation's capital. The opportunity is there. The Redskins have a good, young quarterback in Jason Campbell, an explosive bunch of young receivers, a game-changer at running back in Clinton Portis and, now, an even better defense than the one that finished the 2007 season ranked eighth overall. Experts say Taylor doesn't help the 'Skins much because he's going to the worst team in the NFL's best division. Uh, what about the Philadelphia Eagles makes them better then Washington, who actually made the playoffs last year? And flukes aside, I'll take them over the New York Giants any day of the week in 2008. Dallas is the team to beat in the NFC East, but the Redskins will make the playoffs and, as the Giants demonstrated last winter, once you get there anything is possible.
It was said on a few occasions yesterday that this is a terrible deal for Washington because Taylor isn't the same player as he was two years ago. Well that makes sense because in 2006, the year he was named the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year, he upped the ante by recording an obscene 13.5 sacks, 10 forced fumbles, 4 fumble recoveries, and returned two interceptions for touchdowns. How could anyone expect a 33-year old to put on an encore performance better than that on a 1-15 team that had Matt Roth (who?) playing opposite end? Since when was his 2007 production of 11 sacks, 4 forced fumbles and an interception returned for a touchdown considered pedestrian? How many ends or linebackers would love to say they had those numbers and made a Pro Bowl? On a 1-15 team! That statement is simply idiotic. Taylor will give the organization every bit of energy he has on every down he plays this season. He'll celebrate the wins and mourn the losses, just as he did much too often the last few years in Miami. The trade injects him with new life, something he did not have at the end of last season and now there's no limit to the havoc he can wreak. The Redskins added a revitalized playmaker that instantly turns their defense from good to great and makes them a legitimate contender in the NFC.
On a side note, after leading one of the NFL's top defenses for 11 years in Miami, Taylor and Dallas Cowboys middle linebacker Zach Thomas will both finish their careers in the same division, on opposite sides of the league's most bitter rivalry. The two best defenders in Dolphins history will fight twice, maybe three times a year for the ultimate career achievement that both deserve to add to their legacy. Go get 'em boys. Let the Miami organization feel some bit of satisfaction and relief that, despite wasting most of your prime years, you left town just in time to add the one missing piece to Hall of Fame-worthy careers.
DTM
Jason Taylor, the face of the Miami Dolphins franchise since Dan Marino's retirement in April 2000, was officially introduced as the newest member of the Washington Redskins yesterday. Despite the inevitability of the situation, the Taylor trade is as bittersweet as they come. Bitter because No. 99 was the best player on the team since Danny Boy left and, aside from the reality of Miami's bleak situation, gave fans and teammates hope that his presence alone could deliver a victory on any given Sunday. Bitter because his departure leaves those once hopeful fans with no justifiable reason to actually watch this season. Bitter because it is now official that Taylor joins a group of Dolphins greats that left town without a championship, underlining the fact that management wasted the elite years of his career. And bitter because his career in South Florida could not have ended any worse with a 1-15 finish in his farewell season and seven months of animosity between he and the new regime that had fans and analysts questioning his loyalty and love for the game. Loyalty? Miami hasn't been to the playoffs since the 2001 season and has had five head coaches in that six year span. If Taylor didn't have loyalty in his blood, don't you think he would've bolted for another city three or four years ago?
Now to the sweet part of the deal. Miami netted a second round pick in 2009 and a sixth round pick in 2010. Sweet. Taylor is the game's best pass rusher and one of the five best defenders in football. He is someone that teams spend an entire week game planning around and there aren't many players on the defensive side of the ball you can say that about. He has 100.5 sacks in the post-Marino years (2000) and second place is not close. Recently retired Michael Strahan is next with 89, a full season's worth of sacks behind JT. All that gets you a second round pick and a player who will be one of the team's first cuts in the summer of 2010? Sweet.
The great thing about all this is that it got Taylor out of Miami and gives him a chance at the storybook ending his illustrious career deserves. As nice as it would've been for him to finish with a 4-12 bang in aqua and orange, it would be much more fitting if he were to go out on top by bringing the Lombardi Trophy back to the nation's capital. The opportunity is there. The Redskins have a good, young quarterback in Jason Campbell, an explosive bunch of young receivers, a game-changer at running back in Clinton Portis and, now, an even better defense than the one that finished the 2007 season ranked eighth overall. Experts say Taylor doesn't help the 'Skins much because he's going to the worst team in the NFL's best division. Uh, what about the Philadelphia Eagles makes them better then Washington, who actually made the playoffs last year? And flukes aside, I'll take them over the New York Giants any day of the week in 2008. Dallas is the team to beat in the NFC East, but the Redskins will make the playoffs and, as the Giants demonstrated last winter, once you get there anything is possible.
It was said on a few occasions yesterday that this is a terrible deal for Washington because Taylor isn't the same player as he was two years ago. Well that makes sense because in 2006, the year he was named the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year, he upped the ante by recording an obscene 13.5 sacks, 10 forced fumbles, 4 fumble recoveries, and returned two interceptions for touchdowns. How could anyone expect a 33-year old to put on an encore performance better than that on a 1-15 team that had Matt Roth (who?) playing opposite end? Since when was his 2007 production of 11 sacks, 4 forced fumbles and an interception returned for a touchdown considered pedestrian? How many ends or linebackers would love to say they had those numbers and made a Pro Bowl? On a 1-15 team! That statement is simply idiotic. Taylor will give the organization every bit of energy he has on every down he plays this season. He'll celebrate the wins and mourn the losses, just as he did much too often the last few years in Miami. The trade injects him with new life, something he did not have at the end of last season and now there's no limit to the havoc he can wreak. The Redskins added a revitalized playmaker that instantly turns their defense from good to great and makes them a legitimate contender in the NFC.
On a side note, after leading one of the NFL's top defenses for 11 years in Miami, Taylor and Dallas Cowboys middle linebacker Zach Thomas will both finish their careers in the same division, on opposite sides of the league's most bitter rivalry. The two best defenders in Dolphins history will fight twice, maybe three times a year for the ultimate career achievement that both deserve to add to their legacy. Go get 'em boys. Let the Miami organization feel some bit of satisfaction and relief that, despite wasting most of your prime years, you left town just in time to add the one missing piece to Hall of Fame-worthy careers.
DTM
Sunday, July 13, 2008
Sorry Philly, Brand Doesn't Make Sixers Instant Contenders
Elton Brand reneging on a pre-arranged deal to return to the Clippers and bolting for the City of Brotherly Love is bordering on old news, but the discussion of whether or not this makes the Philadelphia 76ers a legitimate championship contender will be a topic of debate for the remainder of the summer. As of today, the 76ers are not a championship caliber team. From where I stand, they look like the third best team in the Atlantic Division behind the champs and the revamped Toronto Raptors and you could make an argument that they are sixth in the Eastern Conference behind the Magic, LeBrons and the Pistons. I may be reaching here, but I'm not sure they're even better then the Miami Heat with a fully healthy Dwayne Wade, Shawn Marion (assuming he stays on board) and Michael Beasley. Even the Wizards trio of Agent Zero, Antwan Jamison and Caron Butler is more appealing than Brand, Andre Iguodala and Andre Miller. I see the Sixers finishing anywhere between the four and seven seed and if you aren't a top three seed in the still-Leastern Conference, you can't possibly be labeled a championship contender.
There are many questions that need to be answered about Philadelphia before we fire up the bandwagon. First, the average age on the team is 25.7 years, meaning they are very young. Secondly, the youth on the Sixers is nothing to get too excited about. Willie Green, Louis Amundson, Jason Smith, Thaddeus Young, Marreese Speights and, my personal favorite, Shavlik Randolph are all 26 or younger. Who in that group is going to help win a title in the next year or two? Next take a look at a projected eight-man rotation for the regular season opener in November. Obviously you have Brand, Iguodala and Miller, then throw in Reggie Evans, Green, Sam Dalembert, Louis Williams and Jason Smith. Do any of those names scare you? Having three very good players is great but, as the Boston Celtics just demonstrated, you still need a solid supporting cast around them to win a championship. Right now, the Sixers don't have that. It's safe to assume the organization regrets their decision to trade sharpshooter Kyle Korver to the Jazz for nothing last season since they are sorely lacking perimeter shooting.
Lastly, uncertainty surrounds each member of the "Big 3". Brand is coming off of a serious Achilles injury that forced him to miss all but eight games in 2007-08 and will be 30 before the 2009 playoffs roll around. Miller is coming off the best season of his career, in which he averaged a career-high 17 points and seven assists. Unfortunately, like Brand, Miller is on the downside of his career (he will be 33 next March) so it can't be assumed that he will be good for those numbers again in '08-09. And that brings us to Andre Iguodala. A.I. II appeared to be on the verge of cementing himself as one of the top-tier young stars in the game after averaging 19.9 points on 46% shooting, 5.4 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 2.1 steals during a brilliant regular season. Then came the playoff series against Detroit. Iguodala looked lost in his first playoff run against the more experienced Pistons, averaging just 13.2 points on 33% shooting. A rising star shouldn't be shot down based on his first playoff series against a postseason juggernaut, but that showing undeniably raises a red flag. If the Sixers roll into the playoffs next April and Iguodala pulls another disappearing act, Philadelphia will fade right with him regardless of what seed they earn.
Philly is led by one of the leagues finest coaches in Maurice Cheeks and has three Brand-name players (lame pun, I know) to lean on this season. But will Brand stay healthy? Can Miller continue to play at the level of a borderline All-Star as he enters his mid-30's? Will Iguodala find his regular season mojo and translate that into playoff success? If the answer to those three questions is yes, then do they have enough help around them to make a serious run? Until the real games tip off in November, it will be hard to gauge whether or not the new "Big 3" will be merely a great marketing tool or a band of brothers that make the 76ers a contender again.
DTM
There are many questions that need to be answered about Philadelphia before we fire up the bandwagon. First, the average age on the team is 25.7 years, meaning they are very young. Secondly, the youth on the Sixers is nothing to get too excited about. Willie Green, Louis Amundson, Jason Smith, Thaddeus Young, Marreese Speights and, my personal favorite, Shavlik Randolph are all 26 or younger. Who in that group is going to help win a title in the next year or two? Next take a look at a projected eight-man rotation for the regular season opener in November. Obviously you have Brand, Iguodala and Miller, then throw in Reggie Evans, Green, Sam Dalembert, Louis Williams and Jason Smith. Do any of those names scare you? Having three very good players is great but, as the Boston Celtics just demonstrated, you still need a solid supporting cast around them to win a championship. Right now, the Sixers don't have that. It's safe to assume the organization regrets their decision to trade sharpshooter Kyle Korver to the Jazz for nothing last season since they are sorely lacking perimeter shooting.
Lastly, uncertainty surrounds each member of the "Big 3". Brand is coming off of a serious Achilles injury that forced him to miss all but eight games in 2007-08 and will be 30 before the 2009 playoffs roll around. Miller is coming off the best season of his career, in which he averaged a career-high 17 points and seven assists. Unfortunately, like Brand, Miller is on the downside of his career (he will be 33 next March) so it can't be assumed that he will be good for those numbers again in '08-09. And that brings us to Andre Iguodala. A.I. II appeared to be on the verge of cementing himself as one of the top-tier young stars in the game after averaging 19.9 points on 46% shooting, 5.4 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 2.1 steals during a brilliant regular season. Then came the playoff series against Detroit. Iguodala looked lost in his first playoff run against the more experienced Pistons, averaging just 13.2 points on 33% shooting. A rising star shouldn't be shot down based on his first playoff series against a postseason juggernaut, but that showing undeniably raises a red flag. If the Sixers roll into the playoffs next April and Iguodala pulls another disappearing act, Philadelphia will fade right with him regardless of what seed they earn.
Philly is led by one of the leagues finest coaches in Maurice Cheeks and has three Brand-name players (lame pun, I know) to lean on this season. But will Brand stay healthy? Can Miller continue to play at the level of a borderline All-Star as he enters his mid-30's? Will Iguodala find his regular season mojo and translate that into playoff success? If the answer to those three questions is yes, then do they have enough help around them to make a serious run? Until the real games tip off in November, it will be hard to gauge whether or not the new "Big 3" will be merely a great marketing tool or a band of brothers that make the 76ers a contender again.
DTM
Monday, July 7, 2008
Wimbledon Final One of Sports Finest Moments
To pull a quote from the finest hour in the career of the late great comedian Chris Farley, "I swear I've seen a lot of things in my life. But that... was... awesome!" To make a slight revision to that statement, I've watched more sporting events in my life then I care to remember or report, but the 2008 Wimbledon final between Roger Federer and the new champion, Rafa Nadal, may be the best of them all. For once a championship event lived up to the hype that surrounded it and how often do you come away disappointed in situations like that? Let's go back just a few weeks to the French Open final, when many felt this was the year Federer would overcome Nadal to claim his first French title and complete the career Grand Slam. Federer instead was embarrassed, winning just four games and losing the final ten in a match that was over when it started.
The so-called experts began questioning Federer's game and his spot in history following that debacle, but let's make one thing clear after his 4-6, 4-6, 7-6 (5), 7-6 (8), 7-9 defeat on his home turf: his legacy is intact and when all is said and done, he will still go down as the best player in tennis history. In 2008 he has won two events, lost in the Australian Open semifinals to eventual-champion Novak Djokovic, and lost the French Open and Wimbledon final to Nadal. Just about every player on tour not named Roger Federer would kill to accomplish that much in a career, let alone a single year. As for yesterday's performance, aside from converting just one of 13 break chances, there isn't much more to dissect about Federer's play. In fact, that may have been one of the best matches he has ever played considering his opponent, the pesky rain delays and the stage itself. The saddest part about the final was that it had to end with a loser in a match that truly didn't deserve one.
Casual sports fans will say that you can turn on the last two minutes of a football or basketball game and that's all you need to see because ultimately everything else leading up to the last moment means nothing, which is absurd because there wouldn't be a last two minutes without the ones before them. The casual idiots that stand by that assertion would have no ground to stand on when talking about Sunday's final. Every point from game one to game 62 was played with the intensity of championship point and each player had to play it that way because they knew it was unlikely the other was going to make that fatal mistake that completely swung the momentum one way or the other. There were no service breaks from the fourth game of the second set up until the 15th game of the final set when Nadal finally broke Federer to serve for the match. Some would say that's bad tennis, I say it's a case of two great players doing exactly what they are supposed to do: hold serve.
The mental toughness of Federer and Nadal may be the untold story from the final. I thought the first set was going to tell the story of the match because my feeling was that, after what happened in France, no one needed a first set victory more than Federer did yesterday. Losing the first set was bad, but blowing a 4-1 lead in the second to fall behind 0-2 left little doubt that there was going to be a new Wimbledon champion and that the match was going to end in another serious disappointment for Federer and the fans. As was once said by former Houston Rockets coach Rudy Tomjanovich, "Never underestimate the heart of a champion." Federer fought back again and again, dodging two match point's in the fourth set tiebreak to force a fifth set, setting the stage for one of the greatest finishes in sports history.
Now to Nadal. How many people out there thought the 22-year old Spanish phenom had any shot to win after his forehand shot went long at 9-8, clinching the fourth set tiebreak for Federer and erasing his once comfy two set lead? Anybody? You in the back with your hand up, you're lying. Nadal has been thought of as the great clay court player of this era and nothing more and, despite his successes against Federer, had yet to beat him on grass. Last year's Wimbledon final went five sets and Nadal took the momentum into the final stanza by winning the fourth. He was blown out 6-2 then and the stage was set for another heartbreaking result for Nadal. Yet one service hold and clutch shot after another, the Rat fink never folded, and he finally captured the championship that seemed so certain to be his hours before.
The question now is whether or not Nadal unseats Federer's four year run as the world's No. 1 player. I'm not sure how the whole point system works in tennis, but I don't see how he isn't the top seed when the U.S. Open rolls around in late-August. He has won two of the three Grand Slams and beaten the current No. 1 in both finals. Regardless of what the points say, Nadal has earned the title of "World's Best Player" and should hold onto it until he is unseated by Federer or another challenger.
John McEnroe, who knows great tennis when he sees it, said that Sunday's final in England was the best in the long, storied history of the game. I would agree with that, but I'll take it a step further. The 2008 Wimbledon final was one of the great events in sports history and it will be very hard for the field in Flushing Meadows to live up to. The Federer-Nadal rivalry is the finest in sports at the moment (sorry Yanks and Sox fans) and the hope here is that they meet again eight weeks from now in the Open final to cap what has been a year to remember in tennis.
DTM
The so-called experts began questioning Federer's game and his spot in history following that debacle, but let's make one thing clear after his 4-6, 4-6, 7-6 (5), 7-6 (8), 7-9 defeat on his home turf: his legacy is intact and when all is said and done, he will still go down as the best player in tennis history. In 2008 he has won two events, lost in the Australian Open semifinals to eventual-champion Novak Djokovic, and lost the French Open and Wimbledon final to Nadal. Just about every player on tour not named Roger Federer would kill to accomplish that much in a career, let alone a single year. As for yesterday's performance, aside from converting just one of 13 break chances, there isn't much more to dissect about Federer's play. In fact, that may have been one of the best matches he has ever played considering his opponent, the pesky rain delays and the stage itself. The saddest part about the final was that it had to end with a loser in a match that truly didn't deserve one.
Casual sports fans will say that you can turn on the last two minutes of a football or basketball game and that's all you need to see because ultimately everything else leading up to the last moment means nothing, which is absurd because there wouldn't be a last two minutes without the ones before them. The casual idiots that stand by that assertion would have no ground to stand on when talking about Sunday's final. Every point from game one to game 62 was played with the intensity of championship point and each player had to play it that way because they knew it was unlikely the other was going to make that fatal mistake that completely swung the momentum one way or the other. There were no service breaks from the fourth game of the second set up until the 15th game of the final set when Nadal finally broke Federer to serve for the match. Some would say that's bad tennis, I say it's a case of two great players doing exactly what they are supposed to do: hold serve.
The mental toughness of Federer and Nadal may be the untold story from the final. I thought the first set was going to tell the story of the match because my feeling was that, after what happened in France, no one needed a first set victory more than Federer did yesterday. Losing the first set was bad, but blowing a 4-1 lead in the second to fall behind 0-2 left little doubt that there was going to be a new Wimbledon champion and that the match was going to end in another serious disappointment for Federer and the fans. As was once said by former Houston Rockets coach Rudy Tomjanovich, "Never underestimate the heart of a champion." Federer fought back again and again, dodging two match point's in the fourth set tiebreak to force a fifth set, setting the stage for one of the greatest finishes in sports history.
Now to Nadal. How many people out there thought the 22-year old Spanish phenom had any shot to win after his forehand shot went long at 9-8, clinching the fourth set tiebreak for Federer and erasing his once comfy two set lead? Anybody? You in the back with your hand up, you're lying. Nadal has been thought of as the great clay court player of this era and nothing more and, despite his successes against Federer, had yet to beat him on grass. Last year's Wimbledon final went five sets and Nadal took the momentum into the final stanza by winning the fourth. He was blown out 6-2 then and the stage was set for another heartbreaking result for Nadal. Yet one service hold and clutch shot after another, the Rat fink never folded, and he finally captured the championship that seemed so certain to be his hours before.
The question now is whether or not Nadal unseats Federer's four year run as the world's No. 1 player. I'm not sure how the whole point system works in tennis, but I don't see how he isn't the top seed when the U.S. Open rolls around in late-August. He has won two of the three Grand Slams and beaten the current No. 1 in both finals. Regardless of what the points say, Nadal has earned the title of "World's Best Player" and should hold onto it until he is unseated by Federer or another challenger.
John McEnroe, who knows great tennis when he sees it, said that Sunday's final in England was the best in the long, storied history of the game. I would agree with that, but I'll take it a step further. The 2008 Wimbledon final was one of the great events in sports history and it will be very hard for the field in Flushing Meadows to live up to. The Federer-Nadal rivalry is the finest in sports at the moment (sorry Yanks and Sox fans) and the hope here is that they meet again eight weeks from now in the Open final to cap what has been a year to remember in tennis.
DTM
Friday, June 27, 2008
Impressions From "Boring" 2008 NBA Draft
One word has been used to describe last night's NBA Draft: boring. Newsflash: every professional sports league's draft is boring and over analyzed, yet the audience increases by the millions with each passing year. On the contrary, while it may have been dull this draft at least kept your attention throughout as there were 16 deals made during the draft or in the hours thereafter. I'll have to get out my book but that has to be some sort of record for the NBA. If not, the Portland Trailblazers had to have set a new landmark by swinging five of the 16. Who knows how any of the 60 players selected are going to pan out for the teams that selected them, but here's what I think of the all the action from Thursday night and a few guesses as to what we may be saying about the 2008 class 5-7 years down the line.
Best draft: New Jersey Nets. The Nets gave fans a reason to believe in the organization again after a disastrous 2007-08 season. The early trade of Richard Jefferson to Milwaukee for Yi Jianlian and Bobby Simmons looks confusing on the surface but it will rid them of RJ's ridiculous contract and give them cap space for the LeBron sweepstakes in 2010. As for their draft night selections, the Nets haven't had a decent big since Kenyon Martin in 2004 and they landed two in this draft in Stanford's Brooks Lopez and California's Ryan Anderson. In the past few years New Jersey has wasted time and money on bigs like Shawn Williams and Josh Boone, but make no mistake, these two will solidify the pivot very soon if not next season. Lopez and Anderson combined for 40 points, 19 rebounds and three blocks per game last season in the Pac-10 which, in my opinion, was the strongest conference in college basketball. I'm looking forward to watching this combination develop. They also made a great value pick at No. 40 with Memphis wing Chris Douglas-Roberts, a player most scouts saw as a late first rounder.
Worst draft: Seattle Sonics. I was going to say the Indiana Pacers, but they're going to get beaten up again here shortly so I figured I'd give it a deeper look and this is what I came up with. The Sonics needed a draft similar to the one the Nets had to give their fans in whatever city they play in next year some hope. Instead they draft Russell Westbrook from UCLA with the fourth pick. He projects as a point and Seattle already has two young ones in Luke Ridnour and Earl Watson. I know those names don't scare you, but why not have them as holdovers for another season and draft Brooks Lopez to anchor the middle where they currently have, uh, no one (sorry Nick Collison). Or draft D.J. Augustine or Jerryd Bayless. Or trade the picks for a veteran to help Kevin Durant. Do anything but take Westbrook at four. They noticed their need for a center a bit late because they drafted a big with their last four selections (Serge Ibaka-24, DJ White- 29, DeVon Hardin- 50, Sasha Kaun- 56). I'm confused as to what the Sonics strategy was and in a few years they will be too.
Biggest Steal: Most everybody will say Kansas' Darrell Arthur, but I'm going to go with Ohio State's Kosta Koufos. Koufos somehow landed in Utah's lap at 23 after most scouts saw his name coming off the board in the mid-late teens. When picking that late in the first round, general managers are looking for players with the potential to help their team in the future, but not so much the upcoming season. Koufos is perfect for Jerry Sloan's offense that needs big men with range to succeed. He shot 51 percent from the floor and 35 percent from deep last year so this is a player that could potentially step in right away and help the Jazz. Mehmet Okur could be the perfect mentor to Koufos early on and I see Koufos developing into a better version of Okur. He's fairly athletic for someone who is 7-1 and he blocked just under two shots per game last year in Columbus so the defensive potential is there as well.
Biggest Reach: Sacramento taking Rider PF Jason Thompson at No. 12. Thompson was projected as a late-first/early-second round pick and was taken in the lottery by Sactown. What? LSU's Anthony Randolph, who I never knew played a minute last year but everyone seems to be so high on, was still on the board as was Robin Lopez and Marreese Speights from Florida. ESPN's Chad Ford said Thompson is solid and nothing more and has reached his ceiling, meaning what you see now is what you're going to get. He averaged 20 points, 13 rebounds and almost three blocks last season, but there is some question whether his destruction of the MAAC will translate to the NBA. I would have to agree that the beasts of the blocks in the Western Conference are a bit tougher to deal with then whatever LeMoyne was throwing at him the past four years, so add me to the group of second guessers.
What were they thinking? Pick: The Charlotte Bobcats selecting D.J. Augustine with the ninth pick. The Bobcats could have very easily landed in the "Worst Draft" category, but drafting the Bob Cousy Award winner, given to the best point guard in college basketball, isn't necessarily a bad thing. I guess Micheal Jordan could chalk this up as taking the best player available rather than taking the biggest need, but I'm not buying it. Jordan was blessed when Brooks Lopez fell to nine and I bet you that even his ex-wife thought he wouldn't screw up and pass on him. Lo and behold, he did, but that's okay because M.J. made it clear long before Thursday night that he has no idea when it comes to talent evaluation (Adam Morrison over Brandon Roy and of course the whole Kwame Brown fiasco), which is weird based on that story that he saw Michael Finley becoming an NBA star when he met him in middle school. I always thought that story was a lie, too. Anyway, the BobJohnsonCats have Raymond Felton at point guard and Nazr Mohammad and Ryan Hollins playing next to Emeka Okafor. Doesn't that mean that the better choice would have been taking Lopez, who would have fit in perfectly next to the defensive minded, glass-eating Okafor? Well, hey, at least they paid millions to move up to No. 20 to take Alex Ajinca to make up for the mistake. Awful, Michael.
Best Deal/Worst Deal: Portland getting the rights to Jerryd Bayless and Ike Diogu from Indiana and sending them the rights to Brandon Rush and Jarrett Jack. Lucky for you this is a package deal which means less time you have to spend reading this garbage. Since I'm an optimist, let's start with the good part. The Blazers landed Bayless who, in my mind, is the best point guard in this draft to add to their bundle of young talent and potential all-stars. Diogu is no slouch either as he possesses strength, decent range and the ability to finish down low. I believe firmly that if Portland can keep its young core intact, and that will be a big if when the rookie contracts expire, they will be champions within the next five years and Bayless will be the one at the controls. His averages of 20 points and four assists at Arizona last year should eventually translate to the NBA because this kid has the full arsenal offensively and the weapons around him to create easy opportunities for. This also allows Brandon Roy to play off the ball full-time and not worry so much about being the distributer. Then throw in the twin towers of this era in Greg Oden and LaMarcus Aldridge and you have one scary monster growing in the Northwest.
On the flip side, the Indiana Pacers (sigh). This has nothing to do with this particular deal but you kick off draft day by getting rid of Jermaine O'Neal for a pair of old high tops and a wet towel, then you go and do this. Everyone knows and understands they are trying to rebuild, but you don't do that by throwing away your best asset. I also would like an explanation as to why Larry Bird dealt Bayless who, again, could turn into one of the great point guards of this generation for Jarrett Jack. Starting the rebuilding process by drafting a potentially great point guard is a great way to start, but trading one away for a back-up is very bad. The problem is that Jack will be Indiana's starter because all indications point to the organization buying out Jamaal Tinsley's contract sometime in the near future, leaving them with Jack and Travis Diener to run the offense. Huh? This rebuilding project looks to be one that is very long and drawn out and a lot of that has to do with this stumper. If you weren't sure as to why I wanted to nail the Pacers for having the worst draft, you may now have a better idea.
Second rounder most likely to achieve star status: Billy Walker, Kansas State, pick No. 47 by Boston. Second round picks generally end up becoming role players in the NBA or star players overseas, but rarely do they rise to reach the top flight of NBA players. Gilbert Arenas, Monta Ellis, Carlos Boozer, Rashard Lewis and Stephen Jackson are among the few that have and if someone from the class of 2008 is going to, it most likely will be Walker. Scouts say he could put Vince Carter's highlight reels to shame and would have been a lottery pick last year had he not injured his ACL. That may be the only thing that keeps Walker from becoming the player many believed he would and I'm going to go out on a limb and say he has a career comparable to the Mavericks Josh Howard. He averaged 16 and six playing next to Michael Beasley at KSU last year and it's hard to imagine him not having the same production on the NBA level if he can stay healthy. The talent is obviously there and him slipping to Boston late in the second may be a blessing in disguise because he will have no pressure to perform for the next year or two. If he uses that time to get his knees right, get his weight down and develop his game to go along with his freakish athletic ability, Walker will have the other 29 GM's wishing they had taken a chance. Mark it down.
Best Player: Derrick Rose, Memphis. I know, I know, I'm taking a real chance by saying the No. 1 pick will be the best player from this year's class. Well actually I may be. Go back 10 years to the 1998 draft, one that is now fair to evaluate. The Clippers took Michael Olowokandi with the first pick. The best player from that class? Paul Pierce, selected No. 10 by Boston. How about the 2001 class? Michael Jordan and the Washington Wizards had the first pick and took (gulp) Kwame Brown. The best player from '01, Gilbert Arenas, was taken 31 players later by Golden State. The point I'm trying to make is that No. 1 is far from a sure thing, but to me, Rose is about as sure as they come. The thing I love already is his situation. One reason many top picks don't pan out is because they get stuck on horrible teams and can't handle the burden of carrying a city. Rose landed in Chicago on a team that was projected by yours truly, and many professionals I might add, to win the Eastern Conference about eight months ago. That of course was an awful prediction, but there is much more talent on the Bulls roster than there is on most teams with the first pick. As of today he'll be playing with guys like Ben Gordon, Joakim Noah and Luol Deng, but my guess is that John Paxson will package Gordon and others to pick up a quality veteran that can help better the situation right away. Then there is Rose's game. He's got the complete package and all the tools to be just as special as Chris Paul or Deron Williams have recently become for their teams. Most importantly his college coach, John Calipari, said Rose has the desire to be the best point guard to ever play the game. You don't hear that type of endorsement from college coaches as often as you used to, but Calipari said it and meant it. A kid with his talent and any desire at all has to be a sure bet to become the best player from the 2008 draft class and maybe even more.
Biggest Bust: Anthony Randolph, LSU. I was going to go with Kevin Love here, but the more I watch his highlights and look at his numbers the more I think he will become nothing less than Emeka Okafor statistically. Any player selected in the lottery that does not pan out should be considered a bust and Randolph rounded out the lottery. I swear on everything holy that I had never heard of him until about a week ago and that says something because I follow college basketball religiously. Watching ESPN's clips of Randolph and looking at his numbers, I think of one player: Stromile Swift. Same build, same school, same raw ability that will ultimately amount to nothing. He averaged 16 points, eight rebounds and two blocks. Nice numbers, but he also has the shooting percentage of a shooting guard except a majority of his attempts come from about 8-10 feet closer. He also averages a Jason Kidd-like three turnovers per game despite the fact that he doesn't touch the ball anywhere near as much as a point guard does. Randolph put up solid numbers on a bad team, just like Swift. He is 6-10 and all of 197 lbs. I'm 6-1/185, do the math. The two things he has going for him that Swift didn't is he is going to Golden State, not Memphis, and he was the 14th pick, not the second. His draft profile compared him to Brandan Wright, who was the eighth pick in last year's draft and Randolph's new teammate. At this point, that's not a bad projection because, like Wright, the Warriors have no idea what they are getting in Randolph. But if I had to guess I would say he is the bust of 2008.
DTM
Best draft: New Jersey Nets. The Nets gave fans a reason to believe in the organization again after a disastrous 2007-08 season. The early trade of Richard Jefferson to Milwaukee for Yi Jianlian and Bobby Simmons looks confusing on the surface but it will rid them of RJ's ridiculous contract and give them cap space for the LeBron sweepstakes in 2010. As for their draft night selections, the Nets haven't had a decent big since Kenyon Martin in 2004 and they landed two in this draft in Stanford's Brooks Lopez and California's Ryan Anderson. In the past few years New Jersey has wasted time and money on bigs like Shawn Williams and Josh Boone, but make no mistake, these two will solidify the pivot very soon if not next season. Lopez and Anderson combined for 40 points, 19 rebounds and three blocks per game last season in the Pac-10 which, in my opinion, was the strongest conference in college basketball. I'm looking forward to watching this combination develop. They also made a great value pick at No. 40 with Memphis wing Chris Douglas-Roberts, a player most scouts saw as a late first rounder.
Worst draft: Seattle Sonics. I was going to say the Indiana Pacers, but they're going to get beaten up again here shortly so I figured I'd give it a deeper look and this is what I came up with. The Sonics needed a draft similar to the one the Nets had to give their fans in whatever city they play in next year some hope. Instead they draft Russell Westbrook from UCLA with the fourth pick. He projects as a point and Seattle already has two young ones in Luke Ridnour and Earl Watson. I know those names don't scare you, but why not have them as holdovers for another season and draft Brooks Lopez to anchor the middle where they currently have, uh, no one (sorry Nick Collison). Or draft D.J. Augustine or Jerryd Bayless. Or trade the picks for a veteran to help Kevin Durant. Do anything but take Westbrook at four. They noticed their need for a center a bit late because they drafted a big with their last four selections (Serge Ibaka-24, DJ White- 29, DeVon Hardin- 50, Sasha Kaun- 56). I'm confused as to what the Sonics strategy was and in a few years they will be too.
Biggest Steal: Most everybody will say Kansas' Darrell Arthur, but I'm going to go with Ohio State's Kosta Koufos. Koufos somehow landed in Utah's lap at 23 after most scouts saw his name coming off the board in the mid-late teens. When picking that late in the first round, general managers are looking for players with the potential to help their team in the future, but not so much the upcoming season. Koufos is perfect for Jerry Sloan's offense that needs big men with range to succeed. He shot 51 percent from the floor and 35 percent from deep last year so this is a player that could potentially step in right away and help the Jazz. Mehmet Okur could be the perfect mentor to Koufos early on and I see Koufos developing into a better version of Okur. He's fairly athletic for someone who is 7-1 and he blocked just under two shots per game last year in Columbus so the defensive potential is there as well.
Biggest Reach: Sacramento taking Rider PF Jason Thompson at No. 12. Thompson was projected as a late-first/early-second round pick and was taken in the lottery by Sactown. What? LSU's Anthony Randolph, who I never knew played a minute last year but everyone seems to be so high on, was still on the board as was Robin Lopez and Marreese Speights from Florida. ESPN's Chad Ford said Thompson is solid and nothing more and has reached his ceiling, meaning what you see now is what you're going to get. He averaged 20 points, 13 rebounds and almost three blocks last season, but there is some question whether his destruction of the MAAC will translate to the NBA. I would have to agree that the beasts of the blocks in the Western Conference are a bit tougher to deal with then whatever LeMoyne was throwing at him the past four years, so add me to the group of second guessers.
What were they thinking? Pick: The Charlotte Bobcats selecting D.J. Augustine with the ninth pick. The Bobcats could have very easily landed in the "Worst Draft" category, but drafting the Bob Cousy Award winner, given to the best point guard in college basketball, isn't necessarily a bad thing. I guess Micheal Jordan could chalk this up as taking the best player available rather than taking the biggest need, but I'm not buying it. Jordan was blessed when Brooks Lopez fell to nine and I bet you that even his ex-wife thought he wouldn't screw up and pass on him. Lo and behold, he did, but that's okay because M.J. made it clear long before Thursday night that he has no idea when it comes to talent evaluation (Adam Morrison over Brandon Roy and of course the whole Kwame Brown fiasco), which is weird based on that story that he saw Michael Finley becoming an NBA star when he met him in middle school. I always thought that story was a lie, too. Anyway, the BobJohnsonCats have Raymond Felton at point guard and Nazr Mohammad and Ryan Hollins playing next to Emeka Okafor. Doesn't that mean that the better choice would have been taking Lopez, who would have fit in perfectly next to the defensive minded, glass-eating Okafor? Well, hey, at least they paid millions to move up to No. 20 to take Alex Ajinca to make up for the mistake. Awful, Michael.
Best Deal/Worst Deal: Portland getting the rights to Jerryd Bayless and Ike Diogu from Indiana and sending them the rights to Brandon Rush and Jarrett Jack. Lucky for you this is a package deal which means less time you have to spend reading this garbage. Since I'm an optimist, let's start with the good part. The Blazers landed Bayless who, in my mind, is the best point guard in this draft to add to their bundle of young talent and potential all-stars. Diogu is no slouch either as he possesses strength, decent range and the ability to finish down low. I believe firmly that if Portland can keep its young core intact, and that will be a big if when the rookie contracts expire, they will be champions within the next five years and Bayless will be the one at the controls. His averages of 20 points and four assists at Arizona last year should eventually translate to the NBA because this kid has the full arsenal offensively and the weapons around him to create easy opportunities for. This also allows Brandon Roy to play off the ball full-time and not worry so much about being the distributer. Then throw in the twin towers of this era in Greg Oden and LaMarcus Aldridge and you have one scary monster growing in the Northwest.
On the flip side, the Indiana Pacers (sigh). This has nothing to do with this particular deal but you kick off draft day by getting rid of Jermaine O'Neal for a pair of old high tops and a wet towel, then you go and do this. Everyone knows and understands they are trying to rebuild, but you don't do that by throwing away your best asset. I also would like an explanation as to why Larry Bird dealt Bayless who, again, could turn into one of the great point guards of this generation for Jarrett Jack. Starting the rebuilding process by drafting a potentially great point guard is a great way to start, but trading one away for a back-up is very bad. The problem is that Jack will be Indiana's starter because all indications point to the organization buying out Jamaal Tinsley's contract sometime in the near future, leaving them with Jack and Travis Diener to run the offense. Huh? This rebuilding project looks to be one that is very long and drawn out and a lot of that has to do with this stumper. If you weren't sure as to why I wanted to nail the Pacers for having the worst draft, you may now have a better idea.
Second rounder most likely to achieve star status: Billy Walker, Kansas State, pick No. 47 by Boston. Second round picks generally end up becoming role players in the NBA or star players overseas, but rarely do they rise to reach the top flight of NBA players. Gilbert Arenas, Monta Ellis, Carlos Boozer, Rashard Lewis and Stephen Jackson are among the few that have and if someone from the class of 2008 is going to, it most likely will be Walker. Scouts say he could put Vince Carter's highlight reels to shame and would have been a lottery pick last year had he not injured his ACL. That may be the only thing that keeps Walker from becoming the player many believed he would and I'm going to go out on a limb and say he has a career comparable to the Mavericks Josh Howard. He averaged 16 and six playing next to Michael Beasley at KSU last year and it's hard to imagine him not having the same production on the NBA level if he can stay healthy. The talent is obviously there and him slipping to Boston late in the second may be a blessing in disguise because he will have no pressure to perform for the next year or two. If he uses that time to get his knees right, get his weight down and develop his game to go along with his freakish athletic ability, Walker will have the other 29 GM's wishing they had taken a chance. Mark it down.
Best Player: Derrick Rose, Memphis. I know, I know, I'm taking a real chance by saying the No. 1 pick will be the best player from this year's class. Well actually I may be. Go back 10 years to the 1998 draft, one that is now fair to evaluate. The Clippers took Michael Olowokandi with the first pick. The best player from that class? Paul Pierce, selected No. 10 by Boston. How about the 2001 class? Michael Jordan and the Washington Wizards had the first pick and took (gulp) Kwame Brown. The best player from '01, Gilbert Arenas, was taken 31 players later by Golden State. The point I'm trying to make is that No. 1 is far from a sure thing, but to me, Rose is about as sure as they come. The thing I love already is his situation. One reason many top picks don't pan out is because they get stuck on horrible teams and can't handle the burden of carrying a city. Rose landed in Chicago on a team that was projected by yours truly, and many professionals I might add, to win the Eastern Conference about eight months ago. That of course was an awful prediction, but there is much more talent on the Bulls roster than there is on most teams with the first pick. As of today he'll be playing with guys like Ben Gordon, Joakim Noah and Luol Deng, but my guess is that John Paxson will package Gordon and others to pick up a quality veteran that can help better the situation right away. Then there is Rose's game. He's got the complete package and all the tools to be just as special as Chris Paul or Deron Williams have recently become for their teams. Most importantly his college coach, John Calipari, said Rose has the desire to be the best point guard to ever play the game. You don't hear that type of endorsement from college coaches as often as you used to, but Calipari said it and meant it. A kid with his talent and any desire at all has to be a sure bet to become the best player from the 2008 draft class and maybe even more.
Biggest Bust: Anthony Randolph, LSU. I was going to go with Kevin Love here, but the more I watch his highlights and look at his numbers the more I think he will become nothing less than Emeka Okafor statistically. Any player selected in the lottery that does not pan out should be considered a bust and Randolph rounded out the lottery. I swear on everything holy that I had never heard of him until about a week ago and that says something because I follow college basketball religiously. Watching ESPN's clips of Randolph and looking at his numbers, I think of one player: Stromile Swift. Same build, same school, same raw ability that will ultimately amount to nothing. He averaged 16 points, eight rebounds and two blocks. Nice numbers, but he also has the shooting percentage of a shooting guard except a majority of his attempts come from about 8-10 feet closer. He also averages a Jason Kidd-like three turnovers per game despite the fact that he doesn't touch the ball anywhere near as much as a point guard does. Randolph put up solid numbers on a bad team, just like Swift. He is 6-10 and all of 197 lbs. I'm 6-1/185, do the math. The two things he has going for him that Swift didn't is he is going to Golden State, not Memphis, and he was the 14th pick, not the second. His draft profile compared him to Brandan Wright, who was the eighth pick in last year's draft and Randolph's new teammate. At this point, that's not a bad projection because, like Wright, the Warriors have no idea what they are getting in Randolph. But if I had to guess I would say he is the bust of 2008.
DTM
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Thats A Wrap: C's Blast La La's for Banner No. 17
Even as we speak, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen have to be asking themselves, 'how did I get here?' Last year at this time they watched from the couch in three different cities as the Spurs won their fourth title in nine years while, between them, they had zero finals appearances. Somehow, someway they found themselves in the same area code by the end of August and 10 months later had finally reached the pinnacle of professional basketball after a 131-92 drubbing of the Los Angeles Lakers.
As wrong as it is, all of the great ones need a championship to validate their careers. Speaking with Michelle Tafoya minutes after the victory had become official an exasperated Garnett said repeatedly, "What can you say now? I'm certified." What he meant was his place in basketball history is secure and all of his detractors have nothing left to say. The same now goes for Pierce and Allen who, before this season, were known as the selfish player who played no defense and the Lord of the Jumper, respectively. Both flashed their whole package in the finals and for all Garnett was in the clincher (with that monster 26-point, 12-rebound, 3-block performance I had forecasted yesterday) it was the two guards who made a majority of the plays down the stretch for the C's. Pierce took home the MVP, but it very easily could have (and in my opinion should have) gone to Allen who set an NBA finals record with 22 three-pointers made in the series.
I hate admitting when I am wrong, but boy was I totally off base with regards to these Celtics. And not just in the Eastern semi's when I said LeBron would take over Game 7 in Boston or in the finals which I predicted the Lakers to win in 6, but from the very beginning. If you go back to my NBA predictions you'll see that I picked the Toronto Raptors to win the Atlantic Division and Boston finishing as the five seed. What?! Well maybe I'm not as certified for this as I once thought.
Boston was the best team in the NBA from November 1-June 17 because they had three unselfish superstars yearning for their first championship, an extremely underrated coach in Doc Rivers that stressed defense, and a collection of role players who went above and beyond what I felt they were capable of. One of the reasons I was so skeptical about the C's was because of everyone surrounding the "Big 3." Rajon Rondo came into the season as a young point guard who couldn't shoot and grew into the perfect fit for the team. He capped off his sophmore campaign with a 21-point, 8-assist and 6-steal performance, one so fine that Phil Jackson said afterwords was the difference in the ballgame. Kendrick Perkins is one of the better post defenders and rebounders in the NBA and didn't need to score so he too was a perfect fit. But the biggest shock was the play of James Posey, Eddie House and P.J. Brown, especially in the Finals. All three played great defense, got to loose balls, hit timely shots and are just as much a reason the Celtics are champions today as the "Big 3." The beauty of their title run, in case you hadn't already noticed, is that it was a total team effort. In a league that promotes individual stars, the 2007-08 Boston Celtics showed what can be accomplished when players work together and stars sacrifice their games for the betterment of the team.
One last thought from last night. If anyone still thinks athletes don't care about the sports they play, go back and watch Garnett's reaction after the game. He was running around the floor at TD Banknorth Garden screaming, crying, smiling, kissing the leprechaun and hugging everyone- including NBA legend Bill Russell- that was in plain view. He and Pierce both were still out of breath as they spoke to the media roughly 30 minutes after the win. If that didn't inspire ringless superstars sitting where these two were at this time last year then maybe nothing will. Money is great, but you get the impression from these players that the grind of it all isn't worth it without the winning.
Another NBA season in the books, one that will go down as one of the best in league history. I hate when it's over, but after going through a few scenarios that could see more superstars landing in different cities similar to the way Allen and Garnett did last summer, next season could end up being even better. Hopefully next June we'll be discussing Houston Rockets tandem Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming or Allen Iverson, wherever he may be, asking themselves "how did I get here?" But don't be surprised if the conversation centers around a Celtics repeat.
DTM
(Many of you may be wondering why Kobe Bryant's name didn't pop up once in this ramble. I felt that he and the Lakers weren't deserving of the space after losing by 40 and allowing 131 points in an elimination game in the NBA Finals. Note to Kobe: Jordan would have never allowed that, but it's okay because you'll never be Jordan.)
As wrong as it is, all of the great ones need a championship to validate their careers. Speaking with Michelle Tafoya minutes after the victory had become official an exasperated Garnett said repeatedly, "What can you say now? I'm certified." What he meant was his place in basketball history is secure and all of his detractors have nothing left to say. The same now goes for Pierce and Allen who, before this season, were known as the selfish player who played no defense and the Lord of the Jumper, respectively. Both flashed their whole package in the finals and for all Garnett was in the clincher (with that monster 26-point, 12-rebound, 3-block performance I had forecasted yesterday) it was the two guards who made a majority of the plays down the stretch for the C's. Pierce took home the MVP, but it very easily could have (and in my opinion should have) gone to Allen who set an NBA finals record with 22 three-pointers made in the series.
I hate admitting when I am wrong, but boy was I totally off base with regards to these Celtics. And not just in the Eastern semi's when I said LeBron would take over Game 7 in Boston or in the finals which I predicted the Lakers to win in 6, but from the very beginning. If you go back to my NBA predictions you'll see that I picked the Toronto Raptors to win the Atlantic Division and Boston finishing as the five seed. What?! Well maybe I'm not as certified for this as I once thought.
Boston was the best team in the NBA from November 1-June 17 because they had three unselfish superstars yearning for their first championship, an extremely underrated coach in Doc Rivers that stressed defense, and a collection of role players who went above and beyond what I felt they were capable of. One of the reasons I was so skeptical about the C's was because of everyone surrounding the "Big 3." Rajon Rondo came into the season as a young point guard who couldn't shoot and grew into the perfect fit for the team. He capped off his sophmore campaign with a 21-point, 8-assist and 6-steal performance, one so fine that Phil Jackson said afterwords was the difference in the ballgame. Kendrick Perkins is one of the better post defenders and rebounders in the NBA and didn't need to score so he too was a perfect fit. But the biggest shock was the play of James Posey, Eddie House and P.J. Brown, especially in the Finals. All three played great defense, got to loose balls, hit timely shots and are just as much a reason the Celtics are champions today as the "Big 3." The beauty of their title run, in case you hadn't already noticed, is that it was a total team effort. In a league that promotes individual stars, the 2007-08 Boston Celtics showed what can be accomplished when players work together and stars sacrifice their games for the betterment of the team.
One last thought from last night. If anyone still thinks athletes don't care about the sports they play, go back and watch Garnett's reaction after the game. He was running around the floor at TD Banknorth Garden screaming, crying, smiling, kissing the leprechaun and hugging everyone- including NBA legend Bill Russell- that was in plain view. He and Pierce both were still out of breath as they spoke to the media roughly 30 minutes after the win. If that didn't inspire ringless superstars sitting where these two were at this time last year then maybe nothing will. Money is great, but you get the impression from these players that the grind of it all isn't worth it without the winning.
Another NBA season in the books, one that will go down as one of the best in league history. I hate when it's over, but after going through a few scenarios that could see more superstars landing in different cities similar to the way Allen and Garnett did last summer, next season could end up being even better. Hopefully next June we'll be discussing Houston Rockets tandem Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming or Allen Iverson, wherever he may be, asking themselves "how did I get here?" But don't be surprised if the conversation centers around a Celtics repeat.
DTM
(Many of you may be wondering why Kobe Bryant's name didn't pop up once in this ramble. I felt that he and the Lakers weren't deserving of the space after losing by 40 and allowing 131 points in an elimination game in the NBA Finals. Note to Kobe: Jordan would have never allowed that, but it's okay because you'll never be Jordan.)
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