This time of year there is always much debate about who should really be starting for the NBA All-Star teams. The fact is, the NBA All-Star game can be the most exciting, but is always the most meaningless and fraud of them all. For the most part, the starters remain the same each season, even if a certain star switches conferences (see Kevin Garnett). And why is that? Well, because unlike the MLB and NFL, the NBA's All-Star teams are selected by the fans. No player vote is counted, nor is the coaches. That leaves players like Chris Paul, who in my opinion is the league MVP through the season's first half, possibly out of the game entirely. The NBA needs to do something about this because the fans often get it wrong.
NBA legend and TNT analyst Charles Barkley was particularly upset about one of the starters named this past Thursday, and I can't for the life of me understand why he has such beef with this particular selection. I'll let you decide how legitimate Barkley's argument is. Without giving away their names, I'm going to list each player's numbers through the games of January 25; their role on the team, and their team's record to this point. At the end, after you have a chance to decide the legitimacy of Sir Charles' beef, I will give you the names of each player. A little 'Guess Who'- NBA Edition.
Player A (named All-Star starter)- 43 games/22.1 ppg/10.7 rpg/2.4 apg/2.7 bpg
Offensive role: Focal point of offense, player opposing team must gameplan for most
Defensive role: Most dependable post defender, shot alterer
Team Record: 24-19 (SOS- .519)
Player B (Barkley's choice)- 41 games/9.4 ppg/14.4 rpg/3 apg/3.9 bpg
Offensive role: Fourth option at best, requires no extra game planning from opposition
Defensive role: Own the paint, change shots, defensive catalyst
Team record: 26-16 (SOS- .489)
Viewing the numbers, it becomes clear that both players are used differently by their respective ball club. However, the only true deficit in any statistical category comes in points per game. Player A dominates that category, and is considerably close in each other category listed. Player A leads his team in points, rebounds, and blocked shots and is the focal point of the offense. He is also depended on just as heavily as Player B in his role on defense- to clog the lane, and change shots. Player B has little to no responsibility on offense other than to take up space and clean the glass. That allows him to save his energy for one end of the floor, while Player A clearly does not have this luxury. Player B's team has a slightly better record, but that slim margin can be wiped out by the fact that Player A's team has played a considerably more difficult schedule to this point.
So who are these mystery candidates? I'll give you a few clues. Player A is the worst officiated player in the NBA and has kept his team above water despite the team's other star missing 15 games. Player B plays on a team with two players who were named All-Star starters, which doesn't help his cause in any way because it could be argued that their ability has helped Player B flourish.
If you didn't know before the clues, and you still don't know with the help of them, then what you have gathered at this point is that you wasted your time reading this piece because you know nothing about the NBA. Player A is the Houston Rockets center, Yao Ming, and Player B is the Denver Nuggets center, Marcus Camby. Both players deserve a spot on the roster and lets be real, it really doesn't matter which is on the court at what time because centers are basically invisible throughout the All-Star game anyway because it's a guards showcase. And I know Barkley is a true Rockets hater, but seriously Charles, Yao deserves to be the Western Conference's starter at center and you don't have enough ammo in that tank to convince me otherwise.
DTM
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Sunday, January 20, 2008
Championship Weekend Prediction: Party Like it's 1997
Finished the Divisional Round 2-2 after getting burned by the Manning's. What a shock. If I sweep the final three games I can finish a respectable 6-5 for the playoffs. In order to do that I have to- get ready for it- "take it one game at a time." Lets start with the AFC.
AFC Championship: San Diego Chargers vs. New England Patriots
The Bolts shocked the world last weekend in Indianapolis, although, it shouldn't be as big of a shock as everyone made it out to be. The Chargers haven't lost since Nov. 18 at Jacksonville- an eight game span. When the playoffs began, I felt Rivers would be the one to do them in since he seemed to be more focused on trash talking anyone and everyone rather then beating the other team. Rivers has proven me wrong the past few weeks, along with another quarterback that we'll get to later, but I think he may do them in today for a completely different reason. The late word just came in that Rivers will start today, which sounds good for San Diego, but the reality is the man is not healthy. He will have trouble moving around on his injured knee and that's the last thing you want when going against a Bill Belichek defense. It also doesn't help that LT and Antonio Gates are hobbled as well. Teams at full strength can't beat the Patriots, how do you expect a team whose three best players are playing with serious injuries? The Chargers have been a great story, and provided me personally with great joy last weekend after knocking of Peyton and the Colts, but I don't see them going into Foxboro beating the Pats at full strength let alone their current state. I think the Charger defense pressures Brady and gives the Pats some problems early, but this should get ugly in the second half after Billy Boy makes his halftime adjustments. It's 18 and counting as the Pats roll, 29-13.
NFC Championship: New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers
The Giants have won nine straight road games. The Packers lost once at home in 2007, and just twice in playoff history at Lambeau Field, so something has to give today. Let me start off by saying that people are making way too much out of the weather situation in Green Bay. The game-time temperature is supposed to be around one degree with a -12 wind chill, and everyone seems to think this favors the Packers. First of all, conditions like that favor no one because they just don't happen that often and neither of these teams practice in a cooler in preparation. Secondly, the Giants are from New York and it would actually be colder in Giants Stadium under those temperatures because the wind would be a much greater factor, so don't tell me the Giants are at a disadvantage because of weather. They are at a disadvantage because the Packers have Brett Favre. This legend is on a mission to retire in 2008. He has talked about wanting to continue next year, but I can promise you he will hang it up if he wins today and beats New England in two weeks. However, if that is going to happen, its going to come down to his running back Ryan Grant. Throwing the ball will be very difficult under the freezing conditions so I'm guessing the running backs will have a lot to say about who wins this game. There isn't a back left playing as well as Ryan Grant has been and while the Giants sport a great ground game with Jacobs and Bradshaw, I think Grant will again steal the show as he did last week against Seattle. His play should open up some opportunities down field for Favre and he will expose the Giants secondary in ways Tony Romo couldn't last week. Eli Manning has been fantastic the past few weeks, but I don't see him going into Lambeau and upstaging the legend. Eli and the Giants will be back, but it's Favre and the Packers day, 17-10 Packers.
The stage is set. A rematch of the '97 Super Bowl, a game that a young Brett Favre won 35-21 over Bill Parcells' and Drew Bledsoe's Patriots. A growing legend- Tom Brady- vs. an immortal in Brett Favre. It should be a special game. Check back in two weeks for my prediction on that match-up or another if some surprises occur today.
NostraDTMus
AFC Championship: San Diego Chargers vs. New England Patriots
The Bolts shocked the world last weekend in Indianapolis, although, it shouldn't be as big of a shock as everyone made it out to be. The Chargers haven't lost since Nov. 18 at Jacksonville- an eight game span. When the playoffs began, I felt Rivers would be the one to do them in since he seemed to be more focused on trash talking anyone and everyone rather then beating the other team. Rivers has proven me wrong the past few weeks, along with another quarterback that we'll get to later, but I think he may do them in today for a completely different reason. The late word just came in that Rivers will start today, which sounds good for San Diego, but the reality is the man is not healthy. He will have trouble moving around on his injured knee and that's the last thing you want when going against a Bill Belichek defense. It also doesn't help that LT and Antonio Gates are hobbled as well. Teams at full strength can't beat the Patriots, how do you expect a team whose three best players are playing with serious injuries? The Chargers have been a great story, and provided me personally with great joy last weekend after knocking of Peyton and the Colts, but I don't see them going into Foxboro beating the Pats at full strength let alone their current state. I think the Charger defense pressures Brady and gives the Pats some problems early, but this should get ugly in the second half after Billy Boy makes his halftime adjustments. It's 18 and counting as the Pats roll, 29-13.
NFC Championship: New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers
The Giants have won nine straight road games. The Packers lost once at home in 2007, and just twice in playoff history at Lambeau Field, so something has to give today. Let me start off by saying that people are making way too much out of the weather situation in Green Bay. The game-time temperature is supposed to be around one degree with a -12 wind chill, and everyone seems to think this favors the Packers. First of all, conditions like that favor no one because they just don't happen that often and neither of these teams practice in a cooler in preparation. Secondly, the Giants are from New York and it would actually be colder in Giants Stadium under those temperatures because the wind would be a much greater factor, so don't tell me the Giants are at a disadvantage because of weather. They are at a disadvantage because the Packers have Brett Favre. This legend is on a mission to retire in 2008. He has talked about wanting to continue next year, but I can promise you he will hang it up if he wins today and beats New England in two weeks. However, if that is going to happen, its going to come down to his running back Ryan Grant. Throwing the ball will be very difficult under the freezing conditions so I'm guessing the running backs will have a lot to say about who wins this game. There isn't a back left playing as well as Ryan Grant has been and while the Giants sport a great ground game with Jacobs and Bradshaw, I think Grant will again steal the show as he did last week against Seattle. His play should open up some opportunities down field for Favre and he will expose the Giants secondary in ways Tony Romo couldn't last week. Eli Manning has been fantastic the past few weeks, but I don't see him going into Lambeau and upstaging the legend. Eli and the Giants will be back, but it's Favre and the Packers day, 17-10 Packers.
The stage is set. A rematch of the '97 Super Bowl, a game that a young Brett Favre won 35-21 over Bill Parcells' and Drew Bledsoe's Patriots. A growing legend- Tom Brady- vs. an immortal in Brett Favre. It should be a special game. Check back in two weeks for my prediction on that match-up or another if some surprises occur today.
NostraDTMus
Monday, January 14, 2008
Same Peyton, Different Year; Other Playoff Observations
A 2-2 finish this weekend wasn't exactly the revival I was looking for, but it was baby steps in the right direction. Here are some observations from the Divisional Round:
1. I nailed every aspect of the Packers/Seahawks pick with a big exception: Ryan Grant. We did see a vintage Brett Favre performance as he played mistake free football and threw some serious darts in the snow storm- a few which were snowballs- and the Seattle running game continued to sputter. What in the world happened to Shaun Alexander? I understand that Steve Hutchinson is good, but did he really account for every yard and touchdown that Alexander scored in that historic 2005 season? It appears so because in the 23 games he has played since losing Hutch, Alexander has rushed for 1,612 yards and 11 TD, averaging 3.55 ypc. In 2005 alone, he ran for 1,880 yards and 27 TD, averaging 5.1 ypc. Maybe that's why Holmgren lost his mind that off-season when the front office let Hutchinson go without much of a fight. If you still don't think the offensive line is that important, just take a look at Alexander's dramatic dip in productivity as proof of why it is. While injuries and age have some affect as well, Alexander and the Seahawks are still feeling the impact of losing Hutchinson. Anyway, Grant was the story of this game. His playoff debut began as a nightmare, but he ended up awakening from his wildest dream. Grant deserves a lot of credit for not letting the two early fumbles completely ruin his day as there are a number of veterans who may have tanked after such a dismal, error-filled start. If Grant continues to play this way, I wouldn't be so quick to hand Tom Brady and Bob Kraft their fourth title in seven years. Even the Patriots haven't played a team with the offensive balance the Packers have when Grant is playing at a high level. His breakout should make the next few weeks that much more interesting.
2. While the Pats victory over the Jags provided my second and final victory of the weekend, the game also provided me with a revelation. That would be that the Jacksonville Jaguars are the NFL's second best team in 2007-08. If you read my prediction of that game you noticed that I had little to no faith that the Jags would hang around very long in Foxboro. To my surprise, however, David Garrard went toe-to-toe with Tom Brady for about three quarters before burning out like every other quarterback on the other side does when matched up with The Great One. Jack Del Rio put his job and the season on the line in August when he released Byron Leftwich and promoted Garrard. I was the first person to scoff at the move, but again, I was wrong. The move worked and everything else went as planned (i.e the success of the running game and the defensive dominance). You can tell that this is an organization on the ups and may be New England's biggest threat in 2008-09. On the other side, Tom Brady is still the best quarterback in the game today and two victories from being the greatest in history, and Bill Belichek is still mad today even though his team is in the AFC Championship for the fifth time in seven years. And while I could write forever about how great the Patriots are, I'll just say this: Everyone who is saying that Brady is only having this magical season because of Wes Welker and Randy Moss, you lost any and all leverage on that argument this weekend. Moss caught one of Brady's 26 completions for 14 of his 262 yards. Brady would be the games best with Randy Moss and Terrell Owens or Teddy Ginn and Derek Hagan, LET IT GO!
3. The Sunday slate of games further emphasized why to never go against your heart. Lets start with the Colts-Chargers game. I hate Peyton Manning, but I hate him more in the playoffs. I had never picked the Colts in the playoffs prior to Sunday, and never will again. I told a friend of mine, still the only Colts fan I know to this day, in November 2005 that Manning would choke and the Colts would lose their first playoff game. Sure enough, Manning choked against the Steelers and the Colts lost their first playoff game. Despite the flashy new bling he acquired this offseason, Manning is still a playoff choke artist. Everyone loves to throw out the fact that Manning threw just three touchdowns and SEVEN interceptions in four playoff games last year during their Super Bowl run. Had it not been for the resurgent defense and the out of the blue breakout of Dominick Rhoades, Manning would have never won it last year, and I can say confidently today that he would have retired ringless. Now berate me and say that it wasn't his fault they lost yesterday because he threw for over 400 yards and three touchdowns. Okay great, now I'll counter with he threw for 400 yards because the Chargers took away their running game so he was forced to throw the whole game, and he threw two interceptions in the red zone, one that resulted in an 89-yard touchdown return only to be called back by a phantom holding call. I'm starting to think Joey Porter was absolutely right when he said the refs want the Colts to win every year after their victory in '05. I digress, but again, and you can quote me on this, I will never ever ever pick a Peyton Manning-led team to win a playoff game ever again because you know the guy will find a way to choke it away. The Chargers didn't even have their best player or their starting quarerback and Manning still couldn't find a way to lead his team to victory at home. Pathetic. Consider yourself lucky that you stole your ring last winter Peyton, now do the right thing and go pawn it because you should never have one. One quick word on the Chargers. Has any team ever flown further under the radar? The Bolts have won eight straight games and no one has bothered to notice or give them a fighting chance in any of these games. While I do see them getting obliterated in Foxboro Sunday, they deserve to make the trip and Norv Turner and Philip Rivers should get the love they deserve for this clearly unexpected run to Championship Weekend. How many teams would've won on the road without a player that is as important to their team as LT is to the Chargers? And how many would have hung on to win in the fourth without their starting quarterback who was having a career day? Not many. Major props to the Bolts.
4. Last week my personal public enemy number one, Skip Bayless, said on ESPN that he would take Eli Manning over Tony Romo for the next five years and I was absolutely disgusted with him as usual. While I will never stray from my feeling that he is the worst sports analyst from the weak crop ESPN has to offer, he may actually have been right here. Two weeks ago Romo and Manning had the same number of playoff victories- zero. Two weeks later, Eli is two up on Tony and has played outstanding in his past two. Even more impressive is the fact that both victories were on the road. Romo didn't play poorly Sunday, nor did he get much help from his mates- Patrick Crayton in particular, but this was supposed to be his year. Romo was the NFL's best quarterback not named Tom Brady in 2007, but unfortunatly, 2007 ended 14 days ago. I think Romo has what it takes to be a big winner in the NFL, and I pay no attention to his personal life, but it's clear that you see a different quarterback in the postseason than you do under the lights in the regular season. He seems to make that costly blunder at the worst time, similar to the way his Sunday counterpart used to. Eli has now gone two straight games without making that fatal mistake that has cost his team game after game for the past five years. Bayless may become one for the century with this bold call, but he'll have to wait a few more years to find out. Meanwhile, don't these Giants sort of remind you of the 2005-06 Pittsburgh Steelers? A quarterback hitting his stride at the right time, throwing to an underrated, yet very productive group of wide receivers, a stout offensive line leading the charge, and a defense that lives and dies off of pressuring the quarterback for four quarters. The thing about them that most reminds me of that Steelers squad is their running back combination. The effective change of pace speedster playing the role of Willie Parker is Ahmad Bradshaw, and Brandon Jacobs is their version of Jerome Bettis, playing the bruiser role. This team, like the Steelers, will have to win three games on the road just to get to the Super Bowl. Two down, one to go. A date with Brett Favre and a raucous Lambeau crowd looms, but I wouldn't be surprised if the G-men made it three for three on the road and marched on to Arizona.
DTM
1. I nailed every aspect of the Packers/Seahawks pick with a big exception: Ryan Grant. We did see a vintage Brett Favre performance as he played mistake free football and threw some serious darts in the snow storm- a few which were snowballs- and the Seattle running game continued to sputter. What in the world happened to Shaun Alexander? I understand that Steve Hutchinson is good, but did he really account for every yard and touchdown that Alexander scored in that historic 2005 season? It appears so because in the 23 games he has played since losing Hutch, Alexander has rushed for 1,612 yards and 11 TD, averaging 3.55 ypc. In 2005 alone, he ran for 1,880 yards and 27 TD, averaging 5.1 ypc. Maybe that's why Holmgren lost his mind that off-season when the front office let Hutchinson go without much of a fight. If you still don't think the offensive line is that important, just take a look at Alexander's dramatic dip in productivity as proof of why it is. While injuries and age have some affect as well, Alexander and the Seahawks are still feeling the impact of losing Hutchinson. Anyway, Grant was the story of this game. His playoff debut began as a nightmare, but he ended up awakening from his wildest dream. Grant deserves a lot of credit for not letting the two early fumbles completely ruin his day as there are a number of veterans who may have tanked after such a dismal, error-filled start. If Grant continues to play this way, I wouldn't be so quick to hand Tom Brady and Bob Kraft their fourth title in seven years. Even the Patriots haven't played a team with the offensive balance the Packers have when Grant is playing at a high level. His breakout should make the next few weeks that much more interesting.
2. While the Pats victory over the Jags provided my second and final victory of the weekend, the game also provided me with a revelation. That would be that the Jacksonville Jaguars are the NFL's second best team in 2007-08. If you read my prediction of that game you noticed that I had little to no faith that the Jags would hang around very long in Foxboro. To my surprise, however, David Garrard went toe-to-toe with Tom Brady for about three quarters before burning out like every other quarterback on the other side does when matched up with The Great One. Jack Del Rio put his job and the season on the line in August when he released Byron Leftwich and promoted Garrard. I was the first person to scoff at the move, but again, I was wrong. The move worked and everything else went as planned (i.e the success of the running game and the defensive dominance). You can tell that this is an organization on the ups and may be New England's biggest threat in 2008-09. On the other side, Tom Brady is still the best quarterback in the game today and two victories from being the greatest in history, and Bill Belichek is still mad today even though his team is in the AFC Championship for the fifth time in seven years. And while I could write forever about how great the Patriots are, I'll just say this: Everyone who is saying that Brady is only having this magical season because of Wes Welker and Randy Moss, you lost any and all leverage on that argument this weekend. Moss caught one of Brady's 26 completions for 14 of his 262 yards. Brady would be the games best with Randy Moss and Terrell Owens or Teddy Ginn and Derek Hagan, LET IT GO!
3. The Sunday slate of games further emphasized why to never go against your heart. Lets start with the Colts-Chargers game. I hate Peyton Manning, but I hate him more in the playoffs. I had never picked the Colts in the playoffs prior to Sunday, and never will again. I told a friend of mine, still the only Colts fan I know to this day, in November 2005 that Manning would choke and the Colts would lose their first playoff game. Sure enough, Manning choked against the Steelers and the Colts lost their first playoff game. Despite the flashy new bling he acquired this offseason, Manning is still a playoff choke artist. Everyone loves to throw out the fact that Manning threw just three touchdowns and SEVEN interceptions in four playoff games last year during their Super Bowl run. Had it not been for the resurgent defense and the out of the blue breakout of Dominick Rhoades, Manning would have never won it last year, and I can say confidently today that he would have retired ringless. Now berate me and say that it wasn't his fault they lost yesterday because he threw for over 400 yards and three touchdowns. Okay great, now I'll counter with he threw for 400 yards because the Chargers took away their running game so he was forced to throw the whole game, and he threw two interceptions in the red zone, one that resulted in an 89-yard touchdown return only to be called back by a phantom holding call. I'm starting to think Joey Porter was absolutely right when he said the refs want the Colts to win every year after their victory in '05. I digress, but again, and you can quote me on this, I will never ever ever pick a Peyton Manning-led team to win a playoff game ever again because you know the guy will find a way to choke it away. The Chargers didn't even have their best player or their starting quarerback and Manning still couldn't find a way to lead his team to victory at home. Pathetic. Consider yourself lucky that you stole your ring last winter Peyton, now do the right thing and go pawn it because you should never have one. One quick word on the Chargers. Has any team ever flown further under the radar? The Bolts have won eight straight games and no one has bothered to notice or give them a fighting chance in any of these games. While I do see them getting obliterated in Foxboro Sunday, they deserve to make the trip and Norv Turner and Philip Rivers should get the love they deserve for this clearly unexpected run to Championship Weekend. How many teams would've won on the road without a player that is as important to their team as LT is to the Chargers? And how many would have hung on to win in the fourth without their starting quarterback who was having a career day? Not many. Major props to the Bolts.
4. Last week my personal public enemy number one, Skip Bayless, said on ESPN that he would take Eli Manning over Tony Romo for the next five years and I was absolutely disgusted with him as usual. While I will never stray from my feeling that he is the worst sports analyst from the weak crop ESPN has to offer, he may actually have been right here. Two weeks ago Romo and Manning had the same number of playoff victories- zero. Two weeks later, Eli is two up on Tony and has played outstanding in his past two. Even more impressive is the fact that both victories were on the road. Romo didn't play poorly Sunday, nor did he get much help from his mates- Patrick Crayton in particular, but this was supposed to be his year. Romo was the NFL's best quarterback not named Tom Brady in 2007, but unfortunatly, 2007 ended 14 days ago. I think Romo has what it takes to be a big winner in the NFL, and I pay no attention to his personal life, but it's clear that you see a different quarterback in the postseason than you do under the lights in the regular season. He seems to make that costly blunder at the worst time, similar to the way his Sunday counterpart used to. Eli has now gone two straight games without making that fatal mistake that has cost his team game after game for the past five years. Bayless may become one for the century with this bold call, but he'll have to wait a few more years to find out. Meanwhile, don't these Giants sort of remind you of the 2005-06 Pittsburgh Steelers? A quarterback hitting his stride at the right time, throwing to an underrated, yet very productive group of wide receivers, a stout offensive line leading the charge, and a defense that lives and dies off of pressuring the quarterback for four quarters. The thing about them that most reminds me of that Steelers squad is their running back combination. The effective change of pace speedster playing the role of Willie Parker is Ahmad Bradshaw, and Brandon Jacobs is their version of Jerome Bettis, playing the bruiser role. This team, like the Steelers, will have to win three games on the road just to get to the Super Bowl. Two down, one to go. A date with Brett Favre and a raucous Lambeau crowd looms, but I wouldn't be surprised if the G-men made it three for three on the road and marched on to Arizona.
DTM
Saturday, January 12, 2008
Looking to Rebound: Divisional Playoff Predictions
I'll attempt to save face this weekend after a miserable 1-3 showing on Wild Card Weekend.
Saturday
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers
"We want the ball and we're gonna score!"- Matt Hasselbeck after winning the overtime coin toss in 2003 Wild Card game at Lambeau. If you recall, this was the season that the nation was pulling for Brett Favre. Okay so that's every season, but it was even moreso in the '03-'04 playoffs because it was just weeks after his magical Monday Night performance in Oakland only hours after his father died tragically. I was one of those who was pulling for Favre, but for this brief moment, I began rooting for the Seahawks. It's rare that you find a person with the balls to make such a bold prediction at an away stadium, Lambeau Field no less. Unfortunately, it didn't work out in overtime for the Seahawks as Al Harris picked off Hasselbeck and took it straight to the house a few minutes after Matty's Nostradamus impersonation. I don't see today's game going much better for the visiting Seahawks. The running game is still sputtering and receivers Deion Branch and DJ Hackett are banged up. The Packers, on the other hand, come in rested and healthy and have the balance on offense that can off-set the Seahawks pass rush. It's been a magical and improbable season for the Pack, and I don't see it ending today at home. We see a vintage Favre performance as the Packers take it, 24-13.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots
Let's just for a minute go back to the 2005 season. The Jaguars go to New England as winners of eight of their last nine regular season games, while the Patriots were flying under the radar despite being the defending Super Bowl champions and winning their third consecutive division title with relative ease. Everyone loved the Jags in that hyped-up Wild Card game. Byron Leftwich, the quarterback at the time, was playing great, the running game was running all over everyone, and the defense was unbreakable. The Patriots won 28-3, winning the second half 21-0. Fast forward to 2007, the Jags have won seven of nine and, for some unexplainable reason, I have seen a number of analysts, the same ones who have gushed over the Pats week after week, pick the Jaguars to go to Foxboro and beat the unbeaten. I'm lost. The Steelers scored 29 points on them, imagine what the Pats will score. They melted down in the fourth quarter, losing an 18 point lead, imagine what they'll do if they somehow fall into a late lead and see Tom Brady's unflappable demeanor on the other side. So why will the Jags beat the Pats? Because their receivers average a height of 6'4. The Jaguars receivers are taller then the Patriots defensive backs. Awesome, they still are all slouches. Ernest Wilford led the team with 45 receptions this season, a number that would rank fifth on the Patriots, even behind running back Kevin Faulk. The Jags only hope is that Maurice Jones-Drew just goes off for a record day, or Tom Brady gets sick and doesn't play- two things that I don't see happening, and may not be enough for the Jags if they did. Brady and Moss give Gostkowski the day off, Pats win 35-17.
Sunday
San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts
November 11, 2007: Week 10, Chargers 23, Colts 21.
You see the above score and say, well the Chargers pulled it off once, why can't they do it again? Well lets see.. Peyton Manning threw six interceptions, the Chargers scored twice on special teams and Adam Vinatieri missed two chip shot field goals, including the potential game winner from 29 yards out. Add all that up and the Chargers should've been up by so much that they should've been sitting their starters in the fourth quarter. Instead, it actually came down to the most clutch kicker of all time missing an almost unmissable kick. I'm still skeptical over Manning in the playoffs (I know he finally won a Super Bowl, but remember he threw 3 TD and 7 INT in the playoffs last year), but I am willing to bet my well being that he and Vinatieri don't perform that badly today, especially at home. Despite his own playoff struggles, I could see LaDanian Tomlinson single handedly winning this game for San Diego, especially on this surface where he'll run the 40 in about 3.4 seconds. Unfortunately the Chargers will be without Antonio Gates and his 984 receiving yards and nine touchdowns and I think that's ultimately where the upset talk ends. Tomlinson keeps it close against an overrated defense, but Indy gets its rematch with New England next weekend, 38-28 Colts.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
This is the weekends most intriguing match-up, and the hardest game to pick for a couple of reasons. Number one, it's a division game, the teams know eachother well and anything can happen. Number two, while you may want to give the edge to Dallas, keep in mind that it is very hard to beat a team three times in the same season. And lastly, while the Cowboys boast the better record, and the darling quarterback, it's the Giants and their beleaguered quarterback who have played much better of late. I am tired of hearing about the Romo/Simpson drama, and I don't put too much into Romo's late season struggles because they had pretty much everything wrapped up in early-December, but you just get the feeling that the Giants are finally ready to win a game of this magnitude. Manning has strung together a few great performances against good defenses (NE, TB), and the defense was dominant in Tampa last week. The Cowboys have been off for a week, but have been off mentally for about a month and I could see them coming out very rusty in the early stages of the game. That's when the Giants have to make their move. I want to doubt Terrell Owens and his health, but I would never after his performance in the Super Bowl against New England. There's also the fact that he doesn't need to be at 100% to run by the Giants secondary which is suspect at best. They played well against Tampa Bay, but Romo and his cast are much more dangerous then Jeff Garcia and Joey Galloway. I'm so tempted to pick the Giants and if they win, I'm going to hate myself for not going with my heart. Nevertheless, I'm taking Dallas to advance on the foot of Nick Folk- Cowboys win a classic, 34-31.
Here's to a better showing,
NostraDTMus
Saturday
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers
"We want the ball and we're gonna score!"- Matt Hasselbeck after winning the overtime coin toss in 2003 Wild Card game at Lambeau. If you recall, this was the season that the nation was pulling for Brett Favre. Okay so that's every season, but it was even moreso in the '03-'04 playoffs because it was just weeks after his magical Monday Night performance in Oakland only hours after his father died tragically. I was one of those who was pulling for Favre, but for this brief moment, I began rooting for the Seahawks. It's rare that you find a person with the balls to make such a bold prediction at an away stadium, Lambeau Field no less. Unfortunately, it didn't work out in overtime for the Seahawks as Al Harris picked off Hasselbeck and took it straight to the house a few minutes after Matty's Nostradamus impersonation. I don't see today's game going much better for the visiting Seahawks. The running game is still sputtering and receivers Deion Branch and DJ Hackett are banged up. The Packers, on the other hand, come in rested and healthy and have the balance on offense that can off-set the Seahawks pass rush. It's been a magical and improbable season for the Pack, and I don't see it ending today at home. We see a vintage Favre performance as the Packers take it, 24-13.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots
Let's just for a minute go back to the 2005 season. The Jaguars go to New England as winners of eight of their last nine regular season games, while the Patriots were flying under the radar despite being the defending Super Bowl champions and winning their third consecutive division title with relative ease. Everyone loved the Jags in that hyped-up Wild Card game. Byron Leftwich, the quarterback at the time, was playing great, the running game was running all over everyone, and the defense was unbreakable. The Patriots won 28-3, winning the second half 21-0. Fast forward to 2007, the Jags have won seven of nine and, for some unexplainable reason, I have seen a number of analysts, the same ones who have gushed over the Pats week after week, pick the Jaguars to go to Foxboro and beat the unbeaten. I'm lost. The Steelers scored 29 points on them, imagine what the Pats will score. They melted down in the fourth quarter, losing an 18 point lead, imagine what they'll do if they somehow fall into a late lead and see Tom Brady's unflappable demeanor on the other side. So why will the Jags beat the Pats? Because their receivers average a height of 6'4. The Jaguars receivers are taller then the Patriots defensive backs. Awesome, they still are all slouches. Ernest Wilford led the team with 45 receptions this season, a number that would rank fifth on the Patriots, even behind running back Kevin Faulk. The Jags only hope is that Maurice Jones-Drew just goes off for a record day, or Tom Brady gets sick and doesn't play- two things that I don't see happening, and may not be enough for the Jags if they did. Brady and Moss give Gostkowski the day off, Pats win 35-17.
Sunday
San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts
November 11, 2007: Week 10, Chargers 23, Colts 21.
You see the above score and say, well the Chargers pulled it off once, why can't they do it again? Well lets see.. Peyton Manning threw six interceptions, the Chargers scored twice on special teams and Adam Vinatieri missed two chip shot field goals, including the potential game winner from 29 yards out. Add all that up and the Chargers should've been up by so much that they should've been sitting their starters in the fourth quarter. Instead, it actually came down to the most clutch kicker of all time missing an almost unmissable kick. I'm still skeptical over Manning in the playoffs (I know he finally won a Super Bowl, but remember he threw 3 TD and 7 INT in the playoffs last year), but I am willing to bet my well being that he and Vinatieri don't perform that badly today, especially at home. Despite his own playoff struggles, I could see LaDanian Tomlinson single handedly winning this game for San Diego, especially on this surface where he'll run the 40 in about 3.4 seconds. Unfortunately the Chargers will be without Antonio Gates and his 984 receiving yards and nine touchdowns and I think that's ultimately where the upset talk ends. Tomlinson keeps it close against an overrated defense, but Indy gets its rematch with New England next weekend, 38-28 Colts.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
This is the weekends most intriguing match-up, and the hardest game to pick for a couple of reasons. Number one, it's a division game, the teams know eachother well and anything can happen. Number two, while you may want to give the edge to Dallas, keep in mind that it is very hard to beat a team three times in the same season. And lastly, while the Cowboys boast the better record, and the darling quarterback, it's the Giants and their beleaguered quarterback who have played much better of late. I am tired of hearing about the Romo/Simpson drama, and I don't put too much into Romo's late season struggles because they had pretty much everything wrapped up in early-December, but you just get the feeling that the Giants are finally ready to win a game of this magnitude. Manning has strung together a few great performances against good defenses (NE, TB), and the defense was dominant in Tampa last week. The Cowboys have been off for a week, but have been off mentally for about a month and I could see them coming out very rusty in the early stages of the game. That's when the Giants have to make their move. I want to doubt Terrell Owens and his health, but I would never after his performance in the Super Bowl against New England. There's also the fact that he doesn't need to be at 100% to run by the Giants secondary which is suspect at best. They played well against Tampa Bay, but Romo and his cast are much more dangerous then Jeff Garcia and Joey Galloway. I'm so tempted to pick the Giants and if they win, I'm going to hate myself for not going with my heart. Nevertheless, I'm taking Dallas to advance on the foot of Nick Folk- Cowboys win a classic, 34-31.
Here's to a better showing,
NostraDTMus
Monday, January 7, 2008
Was I Born to be a Sports Writer or What?
You may or may not have read my post regarding my predictions for this past weekends NFL playoff games. If you did, you would notice that the teams I picked to win went 1-3. That is the only figure I need to assure me that I was born to analyze and write about sports at the highest level. You see us sports writers, whether we are aspiring to be or have already reached the top of the profession, have one thing in common... we don't know jack. We like to think we do and we try our best to get it right, but the reality is that not most, but all of us know just as much as the average Joe that watches the games from his couch or the guy who blows thousands of dollars a year gambling trying to pick these games. The only difference is that I can put my insight into words and on paper better then you, and I may know more in general about the teams and the players and history and blah, blah, blah. The time I spend reading about sports, studying players and watching games absolutely sickens me, and it's times like this weekend that show how worthless all that time I spend is.
I raved about Ben Roethlisberger and how much better-equipped he was to succeed this weekend against playoff virgin David Garrard and what happens? Well neither played particularly well, but Ben throws three awful first half interceptions, and while he was fantastic in the second half, it was Garrard who led the Jags to victory in the final minute with an incredible 32- yard run on 4th and two. I underestimate the Seahawks at home and go for the feel good story of the Redskins, only to see exactly why Todd Collins hadn't made an NFL start in 10 years prior to this December. I trash Eli and his lack of success in big games, and compare Jeff Garcia to Steve Young with regards to his poise and accuracy, but as it turned out, Eli played flawlessly for three quarters, especially during the game clinching 15 play, 92-yard drive in the fourth quarter. Garcia, on the other hand, played the way he did in Detroit and Cleveland, which subsequently got him benched in two cities who are allergic to good quarterbacks.
So how'd I do this weekend? Well, I have another confession to make. I'm a huge Vince Young fan, and you can underline the word huge. Think of High School Musical and how much America's youth loves it, double their obsession, and you have how much I love VY (weird comparison I know, but I just saw a commercial for the play on ice and figured what the heck). Whenever the guy is on the field, I always believe whole-heartedly that his team is going to win, and despite his struggles yesterday and for much of this season, I will feel the same way when next year rolls around. I was this close to going out on a whim and picking Young and the Titans to upset the Chargers yesterday, a pick that would've made me 0 for the weekend. What's worse is that I probably would've picked them next weekend in New England had they won because I would think 'Hey, Young single handedly beat that unbeatable USC team in college, why can't he beat the unbeatable Patriots? He can, and I'm taking 'em!" That's how my brain works people, and lucky for me, this apple doesn't fall too far from the sports writers tree.
DTM
I raved about Ben Roethlisberger and how much better-equipped he was to succeed this weekend against playoff virgin David Garrard and what happens? Well neither played particularly well, but Ben throws three awful first half interceptions, and while he was fantastic in the second half, it was Garrard who led the Jags to victory in the final minute with an incredible 32- yard run on 4th and two. I underestimate the Seahawks at home and go for the feel good story of the Redskins, only to see exactly why Todd Collins hadn't made an NFL start in 10 years prior to this December. I trash Eli and his lack of success in big games, and compare Jeff Garcia to Steve Young with regards to his poise and accuracy, but as it turned out, Eli played flawlessly for three quarters, especially during the game clinching 15 play, 92-yard drive in the fourth quarter. Garcia, on the other hand, played the way he did in Detroit and Cleveland, which subsequently got him benched in two cities who are allergic to good quarterbacks.
So how'd I do this weekend? Well, I have another confession to make. I'm a huge Vince Young fan, and you can underline the word huge. Think of High School Musical and how much America's youth loves it, double their obsession, and you have how much I love VY (weird comparison I know, but I just saw a commercial for the play on ice and figured what the heck). Whenever the guy is on the field, I always believe whole-heartedly that his team is going to win, and despite his struggles yesterday and for much of this season, I will feel the same way when next year rolls around. I was this close to going out on a whim and picking Young and the Titans to upset the Chargers yesterday, a pick that would've made me 0 for the weekend. What's worse is that I probably would've picked them next weekend in New England had they won because I would think 'Hey, Young single handedly beat that unbeatable USC team in college, why can't he beat the unbeatable Patriots? He can, and I'm taking 'em!" That's how my brain works people, and lucky for me, this apple doesn't fall too far from the sports writers tree.
DTM
Saturday, January 5, 2008
Wild Card Weekend Forecast
Saturday:
Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks appear to have the advantage in this game because of their great home-field atmosphere. Unfortunately it appears that may be the only advantage they take into the ballgame. Their only home loss came to New Orleans in mid-October, but you have to go even further back than that to find the last time they had a 100 yard rusher (Week 3 vs. Cincinnati). It will be key for the Hawks to find a balance offensively today because Washington's secondary has been playing about as well as any unit in recent weeks and they don't stand much of a chance if Hasselbeck throws it 40 times. Seattle is a different team at home (7-1), but the Redskins are riding a wave of emotion and have that feel of a team of destiny. In this battle of "12th man's" I give the edge to the one of higher power- Sean Taylor. Todd Collins protects the ball and takes his and his teams Cinderella story to the Lone-star State for a rubber with the Cowboy next week, 20-16 Redskins.
Jacksonville Jaguars at PIttsburgh Steelers
Everybody and their brother has jumped off the Pittsburgh Steelers and onto the Jacksonville bangwagon. I'm not one of those people. Tom Jackson and I may be the only two people in the universe who think Pittsburgh is going to win this game. I understand that Jacksonville went to Pittsburgh and won not even a month ago. That was a great showing, and they are undoubtably among the leagues hottest teams, but lets look at the the key positions and who holds the advantages. At quarterback David Garrard is making his first career playoff start on the road, while Big Benny has already won a Super Bowl. To add to that, while everyone is all over Garrard and his efficiency, Roethlisberger had probably the best season for a quarterback not named Brady or Romo. The Steelers hold a serious edge at wide receiver with Hines Ward, Nate Washington and Santonio Holmes (I'll stop there because I can't name Jacksonville's receivers and I'm too lazy to look them up at this point). Defensively, the Steelers rank numero uno, and while the Jags made mince meat of it a few weeks ago, do you really think Mike Tomlin hasn't made some serious adjustments in the weeks leading up to this game? The nationwide perception of the Steelers has fallen off considerably since they took a beat down in Foxboro (thanks a lot Anthony Smith), but then again, who hasn't this season? I think the Steelers go into this game with a chip on their shoulder and show the world that they will once again be a factor in the AFC race and, with all do respect to Jacksonville, I think they do it emphatically, 27-10.
Sunday
New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I didn't have to look any further than the quarterbacks to decide the winner of this match-up. It kills me how fast the media can change their tune, just look at Eli Manning. The guy played miserable for much of the season, but he plays his best game of the season in WEEK 17 against New England and everyone is again saying that he is a franchise quarterback. The thing the Eli-lovers must have missed was that he threw his only interception of the game on his first pass after New England regained the lead late in the fourth quarter. I still look at Manning and see a quarterback that lacks composure and confidence, but that may just be the classic "Manning Demeanor." Whatever it is, he still turns the ball over too much (20 INT), and completes far too little of his passes (56% completions) for me to consider him a factor. He doesn't handle pressure well and you can bet that Jon Gruden will release the hounds on him today. On the flip side, you have Jeff Garcia. The fact that he is still playing amazes me. He made a few Pro Bowls in San Fran then signed as a free agent savior in Detroit (gulp) and Cleveland (yikes) only to be benched in both places. How many quarterbacks move on to lead a team to the playoffs after being benched in Cleveland and Detroit? Well it's not many, but here is one, and Garcia has done an admirable job. He, unlike Manning, is very calm in the pocket and doesn't turn the ball over, going 11 of the 13 games he started without throwing an interception. He also holds something else that Manning does not, and that would be the control and respect of the men in his huddle. The Giants can talk all they want about how they trust Eli, but just ask Tiki Barber how much respect Eli has in his own huddle. The last big thing Garcia has over Manning is a playoff win. Garcia won a number of them in San Francisco and won one last year for Philadelphia. The funny thing is that his last two playoff victories have come against the G-Men, in 2002 with SF and last year in Philly. After the Bucs take this game 23-14, I would like to know if it will be the first time in history that a quarterback beats a team in the playoffs as the starter for three different clubs.
Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers
This game was the hardest for me to pick. I love Vince Young and the aura he brings despite his hideous numbers this season (9 TD 17 INT), and I can't stand Philip Rivers and his trash talking Jay Cutler. I can't decide if the quarterbacks will completely decide this game or have little to do with the outcome. You know both teams will pound the ball, and that makes it hard for me to pick against San Diego because you know that LT will get at least 30 touches today. I think the Titans are better defensively then the Chargers, but if Haynesworth's hamstring is still nagging him, it's hard to believe that they will be able to contain the running game. It seems that all the injuries are building up on the Titans at the wrong time- Young, Bo Scaife, Roydell Williams, and Haynesworth- while the Chargers are completely healthy. Young being a game-time decision makes me want to pick the Titans because you know he will play and I have this feeling that he is going to give us that "put my team on my back and shock the world" performance that he constantly gave at Texas and in his rookie campaign last season, but he has been in and out of games too often lately for me to believe he's healthy enough to put out such an effort. I think the healthier and more experienced home team gets it done today. Mark this down because I can promise you that this will be the only time I ever pick a Norv Turner team to beat a Jeff Fisher team, 28-24 Chargers.
NostraDTMus
Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks appear to have the advantage in this game because of their great home-field atmosphere. Unfortunately it appears that may be the only advantage they take into the ballgame. Their only home loss came to New Orleans in mid-October, but you have to go even further back than that to find the last time they had a 100 yard rusher (Week 3 vs. Cincinnati). It will be key for the Hawks to find a balance offensively today because Washington's secondary has been playing about as well as any unit in recent weeks and they don't stand much of a chance if Hasselbeck throws it 40 times. Seattle is a different team at home (7-1), but the Redskins are riding a wave of emotion and have that feel of a team of destiny. In this battle of "12th man's" I give the edge to the one of higher power- Sean Taylor. Todd Collins protects the ball and takes his and his teams Cinderella story to the Lone-star State for a rubber with the Cowboy next week, 20-16 Redskins.
Jacksonville Jaguars at PIttsburgh Steelers
Everybody and their brother has jumped off the Pittsburgh Steelers and onto the Jacksonville bangwagon. I'm not one of those people. Tom Jackson and I may be the only two people in the universe who think Pittsburgh is going to win this game. I understand that Jacksonville went to Pittsburgh and won not even a month ago. That was a great showing, and they are undoubtably among the leagues hottest teams, but lets look at the the key positions and who holds the advantages. At quarterback David Garrard is making his first career playoff start on the road, while Big Benny has already won a Super Bowl. To add to that, while everyone is all over Garrard and his efficiency, Roethlisberger had probably the best season for a quarterback not named Brady or Romo. The Steelers hold a serious edge at wide receiver with Hines Ward, Nate Washington and Santonio Holmes (I'll stop there because I can't name Jacksonville's receivers and I'm too lazy to look them up at this point). Defensively, the Steelers rank numero uno, and while the Jags made mince meat of it a few weeks ago, do you really think Mike Tomlin hasn't made some serious adjustments in the weeks leading up to this game? The nationwide perception of the Steelers has fallen off considerably since they took a beat down in Foxboro (thanks a lot Anthony Smith), but then again, who hasn't this season? I think the Steelers go into this game with a chip on their shoulder and show the world that they will once again be a factor in the AFC race and, with all do respect to Jacksonville, I think they do it emphatically, 27-10.
Sunday
New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I didn't have to look any further than the quarterbacks to decide the winner of this match-up. It kills me how fast the media can change their tune, just look at Eli Manning. The guy played miserable for much of the season, but he plays his best game of the season in WEEK 17 against New England and everyone is again saying that he is a franchise quarterback. The thing the Eli-lovers must have missed was that he threw his only interception of the game on his first pass after New England regained the lead late in the fourth quarter. I still look at Manning and see a quarterback that lacks composure and confidence, but that may just be the classic "Manning Demeanor." Whatever it is, he still turns the ball over too much (20 INT), and completes far too little of his passes (56% completions) for me to consider him a factor. He doesn't handle pressure well and you can bet that Jon Gruden will release the hounds on him today. On the flip side, you have Jeff Garcia. The fact that he is still playing amazes me. He made a few Pro Bowls in San Fran then signed as a free agent savior in Detroit (gulp) and Cleveland (yikes) only to be benched in both places. How many quarterbacks move on to lead a team to the playoffs after being benched in Cleveland and Detroit? Well it's not many, but here is one, and Garcia has done an admirable job. He, unlike Manning, is very calm in the pocket and doesn't turn the ball over, going 11 of the 13 games he started without throwing an interception. He also holds something else that Manning does not, and that would be the control and respect of the men in his huddle. The Giants can talk all they want about how they trust Eli, but just ask Tiki Barber how much respect Eli has in his own huddle. The last big thing Garcia has over Manning is a playoff win. Garcia won a number of them in San Francisco and won one last year for Philadelphia. The funny thing is that his last two playoff victories have come against the G-Men, in 2002 with SF and last year in Philly. After the Bucs take this game 23-14, I would like to know if it will be the first time in history that a quarterback beats a team in the playoffs as the starter for three different clubs.
Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers
This game was the hardest for me to pick. I love Vince Young and the aura he brings despite his hideous numbers this season (9 TD 17 INT), and I can't stand Philip Rivers and his trash talking Jay Cutler. I can't decide if the quarterbacks will completely decide this game or have little to do with the outcome. You know both teams will pound the ball, and that makes it hard for me to pick against San Diego because you know that LT will get at least 30 touches today. I think the Titans are better defensively then the Chargers, but if Haynesworth's hamstring is still nagging him, it's hard to believe that they will be able to contain the running game. It seems that all the injuries are building up on the Titans at the wrong time- Young, Bo Scaife, Roydell Williams, and Haynesworth- while the Chargers are completely healthy. Young being a game-time decision makes me want to pick the Titans because you know he will play and I have this feeling that he is going to give us that "put my team on my back and shock the world" performance that he constantly gave at Texas and in his rookie campaign last season, but he has been in and out of games too often lately for me to believe he's healthy enough to put out such an effort. I think the healthier and more experienced home team gets it done today. Mark this down because I can promise you that this will be the only time I ever pick a Norv Turner team to beat a Jeff Fisher team, 28-24 Chargers.
NostraDTMus
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