Friday, June 27, 2008

Impressions From "Boring" 2008 NBA Draft

One word has been used to describe last night's NBA Draft: boring. Newsflash: every professional sports league's draft is boring and over analyzed, yet the audience increases by the millions with each passing year. On the contrary, while it may have been dull this draft at least kept your attention throughout as there were 16 deals made during the draft or in the hours thereafter. I'll have to get out my book but that has to be some sort of record for the NBA. If not, the Portland Trailblazers had to have set a new landmark by swinging five of the 16. Who knows how any of the 60 players selected are going to pan out for the teams that selected them, but here's what I think of the all the action from Thursday night and a few guesses as to what we may be saying about the 2008 class 5-7 years down the line.

Best draft: New Jersey Nets. The Nets gave fans a reason to believe in the organization again after a disastrous 2007-08 season. The early trade of Richard Jefferson to Milwaukee for Yi Jianlian and Bobby Simmons looks confusing on the surface but it will rid them of RJ's ridiculous contract and give them cap space for the LeBron sweepstakes in 2010. As for their draft night selections, the Nets haven't had a decent big since Kenyon Martin in 2004 and they landed two in this draft in Stanford's Brooks Lopez and California's Ryan Anderson. In the past few years New Jersey has wasted time and money on bigs like Shawn Williams and Josh Boone, but make no mistake, these two will solidify the pivot very soon if not next season. Lopez and Anderson combined for 40 points, 19 rebounds and three blocks per game last season in the Pac-10 which, in my opinion, was the strongest conference in college basketball. I'm looking forward to watching this combination develop. They also made a great value pick at No. 40 with Memphis wing Chris Douglas-Roberts, a player most scouts saw as a late first rounder.

Worst draft: Seattle Sonics. I was going to say the Indiana Pacers, but they're going to get beaten up again here shortly so I figured I'd give it a deeper look and this is what I came up with. The Sonics needed a draft similar to the one the Nets had to give their fans in whatever city they play in next year some hope. Instead they draft Russell Westbrook from UCLA with the fourth pick. He projects as a point and Seattle already has two young ones in Luke Ridnour and Earl Watson. I know those names don't scare you, but why not have them as holdovers for another season and draft Brooks Lopez to anchor the middle where they currently have, uh, no one (sorry Nick Collison). Or draft D.J. Augustine or Jerryd Bayless. Or trade the picks for a veteran to help Kevin Durant. Do anything but take Westbrook at four. They noticed their need for a center a bit late because they drafted a big with their last four selections (Serge Ibaka-24, DJ White- 29, DeVon Hardin- 50, Sasha Kaun- 56). I'm confused as to what the Sonics strategy was and in a few years they will be too.

Biggest Steal: Most everybody will say Kansas' Darrell Arthur, but I'm going to go with Ohio State's Kosta Koufos. Koufos somehow landed in Utah's lap at 23 after most scouts saw his name coming off the board in the mid-late teens. When picking that late in the first round, general managers are looking for players with the potential to help their team in the future, but not so much the upcoming season. Koufos is perfect for Jerry Sloan's offense that needs big men with range to succeed. He shot 51 percent from the floor and 35 percent from deep last year so this is a player that could potentially step in right away and help the Jazz. Mehmet Okur could be the perfect mentor to Koufos early on and I see Koufos developing into a better version of Okur. He's fairly athletic for someone who is 7-1 and he blocked just under two shots per game last year in Columbus so the defensive potential is there as well.

Biggest Reach: Sacramento taking Rider PF Jason Thompson at No. 12. Thompson was projected as a late-first/early-second round pick and was taken in the lottery by Sactown. What? LSU's Anthony Randolph, who I never knew played a minute last year but everyone seems to be so high on, was still on the board as was Robin Lopez and Marreese Speights from Florida. ESPN's Chad Ford said Thompson is solid and nothing more and has reached his ceiling, meaning what you see now is what you're going to get. He averaged 20 points, 13 rebounds and almost three blocks last season, but there is some question whether his destruction of the MAAC will translate to the NBA. I would have to agree that the beasts of the blocks in the Western Conference are a bit tougher to deal with then whatever LeMoyne was throwing at him the past four years, so add me to the group of second guessers.

What were they thinking? Pick: The Charlotte Bobcats selecting D.J. Augustine with the ninth pick. The Bobcats could have very easily landed in the "Worst Draft" category, but drafting the Bob Cousy Award winner, given to the best point guard in college basketball, isn't necessarily a bad thing. I guess Micheal Jordan could chalk this up as taking the best player available rather than taking the biggest need, but I'm not buying it. Jordan was blessed when Brooks Lopez fell to nine and I bet you that even his ex-wife thought he wouldn't screw up and pass on him. Lo and behold, he did, but that's okay because M.J. made it clear long before Thursday night that he has no idea when it comes to talent evaluation (Adam Morrison over Brandon Roy and of course the whole Kwame Brown fiasco), which is weird based on that story that he saw Michael Finley becoming an NBA star when he met him in middle school. I always thought that story was a lie, too. Anyway, the BobJohnsonCats have Raymond Felton at point guard and Nazr Mohammad and Ryan Hollins playing next to Emeka Okafor. Doesn't that mean that the better choice would have been taking Lopez, who would have fit in perfectly next to the defensive minded, glass-eating Okafor? Well, hey, at least they paid millions to move up to No. 20 to take Alex Ajinca to make up for the mistake. Awful, Michael.

Best Deal/Worst Deal: Portland getting the rights to Jerryd Bayless and Ike Diogu from Indiana and sending them the rights to Brandon Rush and Jarrett Jack. Lucky for you this is a package deal which means less time you have to spend reading this garbage. Since I'm an optimist, let's start with the good part. The Blazers landed Bayless who, in my mind, is the best point guard in this draft to add to their bundle of young talent and potential all-stars. Diogu is no slouch either as he possesses strength, decent range and the ability to finish down low. I believe firmly that if Portland can keep its young core intact, and that will be a big if when the rookie contracts expire, they will be champions within the next five years and Bayless will be the one at the controls. His averages of 20 points and four assists at Arizona last year should eventually translate to the NBA because this kid has the full arsenal offensively and the weapons around him to create easy opportunities for. This also allows Brandon Roy to play off the ball full-time and not worry so much about being the distributer. Then throw in the twin towers of this era in Greg Oden and LaMarcus Aldridge and you have one scary monster growing in the Northwest.

On the flip side, the Indiana Pacers (sigh). This has nothing to do with this particular deal but you kick off draft day by getting rid of Jermaine O'Neal for a pair of old high tops and a wet towel, then you go and do this. Everyone knows and understands they are trying to rebuild, but you don't do that by throwing away your best asset. I also would like an explanation as to why Larry Bird dealt Bayless who, again, could turn into one of the great point guards of this generation for Jarrett Jack. Starting the rebuilding process by drafting a potentially great point guard is a great way to start, but trading one away for a back-up is very bad. The problem is that Jack will be Indiana's starter because all indications point to the organization buying out Jamaal Tinsley's contract sometime in the near future, leaving them with Jack and Travis Diener to run the offense. Huh? This rebuilding project looks to be one that is very long and drawn out and a lot of that has to do with this stumper. If you weren't sure as to why I wanted to nail the Pacers for having the worst draft, you may now have a better idea.

Second rounder most likely to achieve star status: Billy Walker, Kansas State, pick No. 47 by Boston. Second round picks generally end up becoming role players in the NBA or star players overseas, but rarely do they rise to reach the top flight of NBA players. Gilbert Arenas, Monta Ellis, Carlos Boozer, Rashard Lewis and Stephen Jackson are among the few that have and if someone from the class of 2008 is going to, it most likely will be Walker. Scouts say he could put Vince Carter's highlight reels to shame and would have been a lottery pick last year had he not injured his ACL. That may be the only thing that keeps Walker from becoming the player many believed he would and I'm going to go out on a limb and say he has a career comparable to the Mavericks Josh Howard. He averaged 16 and six playing next to Michael Beasley at KSU last year and it's hard to imagine him not having the same production on the NBA level if he can stay healthy. The talent is obviously there and him slipping to Boston late in the second may be a blessing in disguise because he will have no pressure to perform for the next year or two. If he uses that time to get his knees right, get his weight down and develop his game to go along with his freakish athletic ability, Walker will have the other 29 GM's wishing they had taken a chance. Mark it down.

Best Player: Derrick Rose, Memphis. I know, I know, I'm taking a real chance by saying the No. 1 pick will be the best player from this year's class. Well actually I may be. Go back 10 years to the 1998 draft, one that is now fair to evaluate. The Clippers took Michael Olowokandi with the first pick. The best player from that class? Paul Pierce, selected No. 10 by Boston. How about the 2001 class? Michael Jordan and the Washington Wizards had the first pick and took (gulp) Kwame Brown. The best player from '01, Gilbert Arenas, was taken 31 players later by Golden State. The point I'm trying to make is that No. 1 is far from a sure thing, but to me, Rose is about as sure as they come. The thing I love already is his situation. One reason many top picks don't pan out is because they get stuck on horrible teams and can't handle the burden of carrying a city. Rose landed in Chicago on a team that was projected by yours truly, and many professionals I might add, to win the Eastern Conference about eight months ago. That of course was an awful prediction, but there is much more talent on the Bulls roster than there is on most teams with the first pick. As of today he'll be playing with guys like Ben Gordon, Joakim Noah and Luol Deng, but my guess is that John Paxson will package Gordon and others to pick up a quality veteran that can help better the situation right away. Then there is Rose's game. He's got the complete package and all the tools to be just as special as Chris Paul or Deron Williams have recently become for their teams. Most importantly his college coach, John Calipari, said Rose has the desire to be the best point guard to ever play the game. You don't hear that type of endorsement from college coaches as often as you used to, but Calipari said it and meant it. A kid with his talent and any desire at all has to be a sure bet to become the best player from the 2008 draft class and maybe even more.

Biggest Bust: Anthony Randolph, LSU. I was going to go with Kevin Love here, but the more I watch his highlights and look at his numbers the more I think he will become nothing less than Emeka Okafor statistically. Any player selected in the lottery that does not pan out should be considered a bust and Randolph rounded out the lottery. I swear on everything holy that I had never heard of him until about a week ago and that says something because I follow college basketball religiously. Watching ESPN's clips of Randolph and looking at his numbers, I think of one player: Stromile Swift. Same build, same school, same raw ability that will ultimately amount to nothing. He averaged 16 points, eight rebounds and two blocks. Nice numbers, but he also has the shooting percentage of a shooting guard except a majority of his attempts come from about 8-10 feet closer. He also averages a Jason Kidd-like three turnovers per game despite the fact that he doesn't touch the ball anywhere near as much as a point guard does. Randolph put up solid numbers on a bad team, just like Swift. He is 6-10 and all of 197 lbs. I'm 6-1/185, do the math. The two things he has going for him that Swift didn't is he is going to Golden State, not Memphis, and he was the 14th pick, not the second. His draft profile compared him to Brandan Wright, who was the eighth pick in last year's draft and Randolph's new teammate. At this point, that's not a bad projection because, like Wright, the Warriors have no idea what they are getting in Randolph. But if I had to guess I would say he is the bust of 2008.

DTM

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Thats A Wrap: C's Blast La La's for Banner No. 17

Even as we speak, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen have to be asking themselves, 'how did I get here?' Last year at this time they watched from the couch in three different cities as the Spurs won their fourth title in nine years while, between them, they had zero finals appearances. Somehow, someway they found themselves in the same area code by the end of August and 10 months later had finally reached the pinnacle of professional basketball after a 131-92 drubbing of the Los Angeles Lakers.

As wrong as it is, all of the great ones need a championship to validate their careers. Speaking with Michelle Tafoya minutes after the victory had become official an exasperated Garnett said repeatedly, "What can you say now? I'm certified." What he meant was his place in basketball history is secure and all of his detractors have nothing left to say. The same now goes for Pierce and Allen who, before this season, were known as the selfish player who played no defense and the Lord of the Jumper, respectively. Both flashed their whole package in the finals and for all Garnett was in the clincher (with that monster 26-point, 12-rebound, 3-block performance I had forecasted yesterday) it was the two guards who made a majority of the plays down the stretch for the C's. Pierce took home the MVP, but it very easily could have (and in my opinion should have) gone to Allen who set an NBA finals record with 22 three-pointers made in the series.

I hate admitting when I am wrong, but boy was I totally off base with regards to these Celtics. And not just in the Eastern semi's when I said LeBron would take over Game 7 in Boston or in the finals which I predicted the Lakers to win in 6, but from the very beginning. If you go back to my NBA predictions you'll see that I picked the Toronto Raptors to win the Atlantic Division and Boston finishing as the five seed. What?! Well maybe I'm not as certified for this as I once thought.

Boston was the best team in the NBA from November 1-June 17 because they had three unselfish superstars yearning for their first championship, an extremely underrated coach in Doc Rivers that stressed defense, and a collection of role players who went above and beyond what I felt they were capable of. One of the reasons I was so skeptical about the C's was because of everyone surrounding the "Big 3." Rajon Rondo came into the season as a young point guard who couldn't shoot and grew into the perfect fit for the team. He capped off his sophmore campaign with a 21-point, 8-assist and 6-steal performance, one so fine that Phil Jackson said afterwords was the difference in the ballgame. Kendrick Perkins is one of the better post defenders and rebounders in the NBA and didn't need to score so he too was a perfect fit. But the biggest shock was the play of James Posey, Eddie House and P.J. Brown, especially in the Finals. All three played great defense, got to loose balls, hit timely shots and are just as much a reason the Celtics are champions today as the "Big 3." The beauty of their title run, in case you hadn't already noticed, is that it was a total team effort. In a league that promotes individual stars, the 2007-08 Boston Celtics showed what can be accomplished when players work together and stars sacrifice their games for the betterment of the team.

One last thought from last night. If anyone still thinks athletes don't care about the sports they play, go back and watch Garnett's reaction after the game. He was running around the floor at TD Banknorth Garden screaming, crying, smiling, kissing the leprechaun and hugging everyone- including NBA legend Bill Russell- that was in plain view. He and Pierce both were still out of breath as they spoke to the media roughly 30 minutes after the win. If that didn't inspire ringless superstars sitting where these two were at this time last year then maybe nothing will. Money is great, but you get the impression from these players that the grind of it all isn't worth it without the winning.

Another NBA season in the books, one that will go down as one of the best in league history. I hate when it's over, but after going through a few scenarios that could see more superstars landing in different cities similar to the way Allen and Garnett did last summer, next season could end up being even better. Hopefully next June we'll be discussing Houston Rockets tandem Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming or Allen Iverson, wherever he may be, asking themselves "how did I get here?" But don't be surprised if the conversation centers around a Celtics repeat.

DTM

(Many of you may be wondering why Kobe Bryant's name didn't pop up once in this ramble. I felt that he and the Lakers weren't deserving of the space after losing by 40 and allowing 131 points in an elimination game in the NBA Finals. Note to Kobe: Jordan would have never allowed that, but it's okay because you'll never be Jordan.)

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Celtics Must Have 6th Sense

Procrastinating is never a good idea. Putting off paying the bills, filing your taxes or waiting to start a 20-page thesis paper the night before it's due are all situations that generally end badly for the procrastinator. The same applies in the sporting world, in this case the NBA Finals, where the Boston Celtics are serving Championship Point #2 at the TD Banknorth Garden tonight. So that begs the question to Doc, KG and Co.: why put off 'til Thursday what you can finish tonight?

A Game 6 slip up by the home team would not be the end of the world, but it would be a terrible reversal of fortunes that may spell doom. Not only would the Celtics be on the brink of becoming the the first team in NBA Finals history to blow a 3-1 series lead, but they would have to stop Kobe Bryant for the last 48 minutes of the 2007-08 NBA season, with his fourth NBA championship staring him right in the face, to avoid doing so. The thought makes the men in green shake and the fans sweat. As much as you may hate Bryant and love the lovable "Big 3," I know about 80 percent of the country would put their money on No. 24 in a deciding Game 7 in Boston, L.A., Beijing, wherever. That's why the Celtics must be driven to end this now while they're ahead.

Boston has not lacked the killer instinct in this series, evidenced by their 24-point rally in Game 4 and their near comeback from 20 down in Game 5. They talked about finishing the series in L.A and nearly did just that, so fans and observers should not worry that the C's will come out and lay an egg tonight because they have a mere one game edge and the comfort of hosting a potential winner-takes-all game on Thursday. They want to finish it tonight, whether or not they can is a whole 'nother question.

This has been one of the strangest Finals in recent years, mostly because both teams have a legitimate shot at winning it all, which has not been the case lately (see the New Jersey Nets in '02 and '03 and the LeBroneliers last year), but also because both teams have absolutely dominated each game at different times. The past three games have seen one team go up by 20+ points, only to lose the lead entirely or have to come up with a clutch shot or a big stop to hang on for dear life. What's also very odd is how quiet the series' two biggest superstars, Bryant and Kevin Garnett, have been for the most part. The Celtics defense has been incredible on Bryant and his supporting cast has mostly failed him through the first five games, but it's amazing how soft Garnett has played against one of the league's finest softies in Pau Gasol.

KG is similar to Tim Duncan in that he can score 20 and grab 15 rebounds in his sleep, but there are times where those numbers are bigger than his actual impact on the game. The other 29 teams in the NBA would love to have that problem, but aren't you just waiting for Garnett to have a dominating 33-point, 7-rebound, 3-block performance in this series as he did in the pivitol Game 5 against the Pistons? It may come tonight. Check that, it must come tonight. This is exactly why Boston capped off their amazing summer by trading for the Big Ticket- so he would bring his intensity and insane ability to the floor in the biggest game of the season and deliver the city its 17th banner. If this sleeping giant doesn't come alive tonight, you can bet that the other one will when it matters most.

Kobe needs this series to cement his legacy; he knows it, Phil Jackson knows it, you and I know it and Kobe knows that all of the above know it. Picture the Lakers coming back from 3-1 down and winning the last two games in Boston, with No. 24 going off for 35 in Game 7 and winning Finals MVP. MJ never did it and there isn't an athlete in professional sports that is as obsessed with one-upping a legend as much as Bryant is with Jordan. He has his chance to do it and soak in every television, radio and print analyst anointing him as the best that ever lived for at least a week until the hype dies down and reality sets back in. The scary thing is, he can do it and make it look easy, which is why it is imperative Boston seals the deal tonight.

For tonight I'm sticking with the C's, but beyond that... well, not so much. Kobe won't be denied in a Game 7 so, Boston, finish your work tonight or, like so many others, you could face the consequences of procrastination.

DTM