Saturday, September 6, 2008

2008 NFL Forecast

Another NFL season is upon us, with these predictions coming a tad bit late following Thursday night's opener, a 16-7 Giants victory over Washington. Here's how I see this season playing out, although these picks mean little seeing as how I picked a Cincinnati/New Orleans Super Bowl last year and both teams failed to qualify for the playoffs. Hopefully I'll fair a little better in 2008:

AFC East:
1. Patriots
2. Jets
3. Bills
4. Dolphins
Outlook: Even with the addition of Brett Favre and stronger teams in Buffalo and Miami, the Patriots remain the cream of the AFC crop. Say all you want about the defense being old and Tom Brady being injured, but it's hard to turn your back on a team that was one defensive stand away from finishing 19-0 in February. New England didn't undergo much change this offseason unlike the rest of the division and with the easiest schedule in the NFL, they could make another run at history. Although that is unlikely, there is little doubt here that they will sit atop an improved AFC East once again.

AFC North:
1. Steelers
2. Bengals
3. Browns
4. Ravens
Outlook: Many feel after last season's 10-6 showing that Cleveland will finally break through and win the North. Not me. Take a look at the Browns starting secondary: Eric Wright, Sean Jones, Brodney Poole and Brandon McDonald. If you think that is a playoff-caliber secondary, you have another thing coming. The NFL is a league of quarterbacks and it's becoming more of a "throw the ball and stop the pass" league than the flip side. Maybe they'll prove me wrong by shutting down the passing machine that is the Dallas Cowboys in Week 1, but probably not. I'm also not convinced Derrick Anderson is anything more than a one hit wonder. The Steelers are still the team to beat in the North. They have the best quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger, the strongest running game and one of the league's most underrated receiving corps, led by one of my favorites, Hines Ward. They also have the defense to keep them in games against high powered offenses that show up on their schedule, such as Indy, Dallas, San Diego and New England. The same cannot be said for the other three teams in this division.

AFC South:
1. Colts
2. Titans
3. Jaguars
4. Texans
Outlook: You wonder when the South standings are going to be shaken up and although I have the Colts winning the division, this could be the year. Peyton Manning is hurt, as is Jeff Saturday and Marvin Harrison is old. The defensive front is still small, Dwight Freeney is still overrated and they start two linebackers that I've never heard of. The pick simply came down to Manning being better than Vince Young and David Garrard because aside from that I like both the Titans and Jaguars more than the Colts. They sport two of the league's top defenses and have a few sleepers on offense. Chris Johnson, the Titans 1st round pick in April, has looked dangerously explosive during the preseason. Jacksonville's starting receivers, Jerry Porter and Troy Williamson, come to town with baggage, but both have ability and have been given the fresh start they had been seeking. As for the Texans, they'll go down as one of the best last place teams in NFL history. It's too bad they are stuck in such a loaded division.

AFC West:
1. Chargers
2. Raiders
3. Broncos
4. Chiefs
Outlook: There isn't much to debate here. The Chargers are arguably the best team in football and the Raiders, Broncos and Chiefs could all find themselves drafting in the top-10 next April as I can't see any of them finishing above .500. The only question is how early will the Chargers clinch the division title. New England wrapped up the East before December last season and it wouldn't be a surprise if LT and the Bolts did the same in '08.

NFC East:
1. Cowboys
2. Redskins
3. Giants
4. Eagles
Outlook: Like the AFC South, this division has four playoff-caliber teams, but unlike the South, there is no question who the best team in the East is. The Dallas Cowboys are loaded. They added Zach Thomas and Adam Jones to the defense giving them something like 28 Pro Bowlers on the roster. If they don't at least represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, this season is a failure, plain and simple. I think Wade Phillips, Jerry Jones, Tony Romo, TO and every Cowboys fan on earth would tell you the same. As for the other three teams, they'll all battle one another for one of the two wild cards. I don't see three teams from this division making the playoffs and if I had to choose right now, I'd take the Redskins over the other two. Jason Campbell is poised for a breakout year, although he certainly didn't look the part Thursday night, and he has a few weapons in Clinton Portis, Santana Moss and tight end Chris Cooley. The defense added future Hall of Famer Jason Taylor to an already solid front seven. As long as they don't fall behind early while adjusting to new head coach Jim Zorn's system, they should have enough to hold off the Giants and Eagles.

NFC North:
1. Vikings
2. Packers
3. Lions
4. Bears
Outlook: If Adrian Peterson can stay healthy for all of the 2008 season, the Vikings should win this division race which is primed to be one of the NFL's closest in 2008. It might not be that close, but for some ungodly reason, Tavaris Jackson is still their starting quarterback. But the defense is still loaded with playmakers and ball control and solid defense will take you a long way in the NFL. For the first time in almost two decades, Brett Favre will not be under center for Green Bay, but don't expect the wheels to fall off as a result. Aaron Rogers is ready and he'll have help from Donald Driver, Ryan Grant and a solid defense. The Lions started 2007 6-2 and made Jon Kitna look like a genius on his preseason call that they would win 10 games. That was before they dropped their last eight and proved him to be the idiot that he is. I can't quite figure out why Detroit is so bad all the time because they really do have talent, however, I can't pick them any higher until that talent actually accounts for more wins. And in other news, the Chicago Bears, who were in the Super Bowl 18 months ago, actually had a quarterback competition between Kyle Orton and Rex Grossman this summer. Orton, Grossman, Orton, Grossman.. does it even matter? And Daunte Culpepper retired from football this week because he can't find a job. That's rather puzzling when analyzing the Bears quandary.

NFC South:
1. Saints
2. Panthers
3. Buccaneers
4. Falcons
Outlook: The Saints stole Jeremy Shockey this summer and could end up with the best record in the NFC, even though Dallas is the team to beat. That's because the South plays the NFC North and the pitiful AFC West this season so they should pile up the wins even though they aren't as good as the record may show. We'll have to wait until January to find out. The Panthers, because of the same reason, should squeeze in to the last playoff spot despite not being better than teams such as the Packers and Giants who could be on the outside looking in. But don't overlook Carolina. They have Jake Delhomme back, along with two solid running backs in DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. We all know what Steve Smith can do once he returns from suspension and they sport the best defense in the division. The Bucs have enough talent to stay in the playoff picture for much of the season and the Falcons will still be horrible, but will be more fun to watch and see how they ruin Matt Ryan's career before it even had a chance. Too bad, he really has the makings of a star.

NFC West:
1. Seahawks
2. Cardinals
3. Rams
4. 49ers
Outlook: The NFC West is much like the AFC version with Seattle being the only playoff-caliber team in the division, much like San Diego is in the AFC West. The Cardinals have some talent on offense, but Anquan Boldin wants out and Kurt Warner is 100. They say they won't trade Boldin because they are going to make a run at the playoffs, but the Cardinals have zero chance of making the playoffs. None. Zilch. Zippo. If the 'Hawks can get their receivers healthy, they should have another good season, and here's hoping they do since it's supposedly the last for one of the game's best coaches in Mike Holmgren. And real quickly, since this really doesn't deserve much attention, the 49ers spent their summer deciding who would be the quarterback between 1st pick bust Alex Smith, JT O'Sullivan and Shaun Hill. Why didn't Drew Olsen get a fair shot? He is afterall on the roster and looking at those names, that seems to be the only requirement. But I digress. Why on earth wouldn't they bring in Culpepper for a look? Just a look. I'd be willing to bet my well being that he could walk in next week and be a better option than any of those three. Just a hunch.

AFC Playoffs:
1. Patriots
2. Chargers
3. Steelers
4. Colts
5. Titans
6. Jets
Just Missed: Jaguars

NFC Playoffs:
1. Cowboys
2. Saints
3. Vikings
4. Seahawks
5. Panthers
6. Redskins
Just Missed: Packers, Giants

Wild Card:
Steelers over Jets, Titans over Colts
Vikings over Redskins, Panthers over Seahawks

Divisional:
Patriots over Titans, Chargers over Steelers
Cowboys over Panthers, Saints over Vikings

Conference Championships:
Chargers over Patriots
Cowboys over Saints

Super Bowl:
Cowboys: 27
Chargers: 21
MVP: DeMarcus Ware

Awards:
MVP: Tony Romo
Coach of the Year: Sean Peyton
Offensive POY: Adrian Peterson
Defensive POY: DeMarcus Ware
Offensive ROY: Darren McFadden
Defensive ROY: Leondis McKelvin
Comeback POY: Ricky Williams

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