Pulse on Fins/Jets following QB upgrades

The Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets, already one of the NFL's more storied rivalries, just got a bit more venomous after some serious movement on the quarterback carousel. Sports' most annoying legend, Brett Favre, finally settled his beef with the only franchise he had ever played for and was shipped to the Big Apple to complete a very active offseason for the Jets. As a result of Favre's arrival, New York released veteran starter Chad Pennington after he led them to three playoff appearances in his eight seasons there. Roughly 36 hours later, Bill Parcells brought Pennington, the quarterback he drafted while leading the Jets eight years ago, to Miami to end their quarterback competition that was going nowhere. Round and round we go.

The events of the past few days have changed the Dolphins/Jets Week 1 battle from the week's most meaningless train wreck of a game between two bottom feeders into one of the more intriguing games in the opening stanza of the 2008 season. Favre alone would create a media circus, but Pennington starting for his old rival against the team that kicked him to the curb hours after the acquisition makes it all the juicier. My money is still on the J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets, as it would have been had Favre stayed in Mississippi and Pennington, or Kellen Clemens or Vinny Testeverde were starting for the Gang Green. But how much better do the changes under center in Miami and New York really make these two teams that were 0-12 and 2-9, (dis)respectively, the last time they met in Miami? Let's have a looksy.

Start with the Jets. Bringing Favre to town instantly makes them a playoff CONTENDER. He does not assure them of a playoff spot nor does he make them one of the top three favorites to come out of the AFC this season. New York out-spent every team in the NFL by a wide margin this offseason, but more often than not, they overspent on the free agents they brought in. Giving $30M+ to thirty-two year-old Alan Faneca? Undoubtably a move that makes the team better today, but they will regret that contract in two years. Giving Calvin Pace $32M? One rule to follow when trying to build a successful franchise is you never give a dime of your money to a free agent defender from the Arizona Cardinals. Lastly, maybe the worst signing of the offseason was the 5-year, $25.5M contract they gave ex-DETROIT LION OL Damien Woody. After losing his job at center last season, the Lions moved Woody to right guard. He apparently was so bad that he was benched and placed on the inactive list for three games. Jets management felt it would be a good idea to throw millions at Woody and put him at right tackle, a position he has never played in his life. So to recap, the Jets overpaid on a lineman in his mid-30's, and players from the Lions and Cardinals. Well, at least they're bringing in winners.

Anyway, I really digressed there. The point is, the money the Jets are giving Favre may be the only money they get a return on. However, Faneca, at least for a season, will make New York's O-line formidable, which will give Favre enough time to throw to his new receivers. Laveraneus Coles and Jerricho Cotchery rarely get much TV time, but are two of the better pass catchers in the NFL. They go from good to possibly great playing with Favre. The offense has other playmakers such as running backs Thomas Jones and Leon Washington, so offense won't be the problem. For all the money they spent, the Jets didn't do much to upgrade the defense, which ranked 18th and allowed 22 points per game last year.

If Favre has another year like 2007, the Jets will be able to win by outscoring teams. With that being said, the 2005 and 2006 versions of Favre are not as distant as they may seem so that's a dangerous strategy to play on. My guess is Favre plays below the level he played at last season, but much closer to that than 2005-06. He and his new team will be aided by one of the NFL's easier schedules that has them playing the NFC and AFC West, with conference games against NO-D Cinnci and Denver, which should bring enough wins to squeeze New York into the playoffs. Prediction: 10-6, 2nd in AFC East, #6 seed in AFC.

There isn't as much to debate with Pennington and the Dolphins because his presence doesn't turn Miami into a playoff team or even a contender for the Wild Card. This much is true about Pennington: he is experienced, a great leader and, when healthy, extremely accurate. In fact, he is the most accurate passer in NFL history, and he should be because he rarely throws passes over 15 yards since his arm isn't strong enough to do so. He brings a 32-29 record as a starter and the aura of someone who has, ya know, actually been in the playoffs the past six years. The biggest problem is that Pennington has been a Dolphin killer throughout his career, meaning that he is now playing for the team in the division that he was guaranteed to beat twice this season. He was 1-7 as a starter in 2007. The one win? A 31-28 victory over the Fish, in which he accounted for three touchdowns (2 passing, 1 rushing). He had just eight touchdowns in the other seven games he started.

The thinking here is Pennington is a major upgrade over Josh McCown or Jon Beck and will fit nicely into Miami's run-first offense. And he doesn't have to worry about his weak arm affecting the offense because the Dolphins don't have any receivers that can stretch the field anyway, making his dink and dunk style an effective one for this team. His accuracy and leadership should help Miami win a few of the seven games they lost by three points or less in 2007. If nothing else, his presence will allow rookie Chad Henne to watch and learn on the sideline for a year, rather than being thrown into the fire too early. Prediction: 6-10, 4th in AFC East.

DTM