Sunday, November 25, 2007

Heisman belongs to Tebow

This season's Heisman Trophy race should not be as close as all the analysts are suddenly making it out to be. The only real debate should be about who will be joining Tim Tebow in New York to watch him accept the award for the nation's best player. Despite an incredible effort by Arkansas running back Darren McFadden against LSU, he shouldn't even be included in the final three, let alone win the award. While he posted Heisman-worthy numbers in 2007, McFadden likely will be done in by the three games where he failed to rush for over 90 yards. He rushed for 43 yards in a loss to Auburn, 61 against Florida Int., and 88 against Miss. St. In a game where championship aspirations are shattered by one loss, it's hard to believe that the voters won't look at those performances and give D-Mac's invitation to New York to somebody else.

The three players who deserve the spotlight on that December night are Missouri quarterback Chase Daniel, West Virginia quarterback Pat White, and Tebow. Both Daniel and White have had incredible seasons and their individual efforts have put their teams in position to reach the National Championship, and if recent history is any indicator, that should count for something. The last time the Heisman Trophy was given to a player whose team did not reach the National Championship was 2002, when USC's Carson Palmer won the award. That trend should be broken this year as Tebow has delivered one outstanding performance after another this season.

Tebow finished the regular season with 3,135 passing yards and 29 touchdowns, and he rushed for 838 yards and 22 touchdowns. The kid accounted for 51 touchdowns in 12 games this season! A number of teams across the country didn't produce that much offense this fall. Want an idea for how much Florida relies on this super-sophmore? In nine wins, the Florida offense scored 45+ points eight times. In their three losses, the team averaged 23.6 points, and coincidentally, those three games were Tebow's worst performances of the season. He scored at least four touchdowns in every win, and totaled eight scores in the three losses, which isn't all bad. The most impressive part about his overwhelming production is that he is doing it against SEC competition, which is the class of college football.

While Tebow registered a number of heroic performances throughout 2007, there were three games where his numbers were eye-popping.

Mammoth performance #1: 9/15 vs. Tennessee (59-20 W)- 299 yds passing, 2 TD/ 61 yds rushing, 2 TD

Mammoth performance #2: 11/10 @ South Carolina (51-31 W)- 304 yds passing, 2 TD/ 120 yds rushing, 5 TD

Mammoth performance #3: 11/24 vs Florida St. (45-12 W)- 262 yds passing, 3 TD/ 89 yds rushing, 2 TD

How many times has one player accounted for seven touchdowns in one game the way Tebow did against the Gamecocks? I don't have the official number, but I would say it's an extremely rare occurance. A sophmore dominating the college football world the way Tebow has in 2007 is also an extremely rare occurance and that is why he should win college football's most prestigous award running away.

DTM

Friday, November 16, 2007

2007 showing why College Football needs a playoff

Southern Cal, California, South Florida, Boston College, and Oregon.

The above is the list of schools to reach the nation's #2 ranking, only to lose shortly thereafter. It started with USC, who spent four weeks at #1 before suspiciously falling to #2 in week five. That weekend, USC was upset at home by Stanford. Cal moved into the #2 spot for the following weekend and lost to Oregon State. South Florda followed suit by losing to Rutgers after taking over Cal's position. Boston College moved to #2 and stayed there for two weeks before getting upset by Florida State. Finally, Oregon lost Dennis Dixon in the first quarter and subsequently lost to Arizona, ending their national championship hopes.

Here's a prediction for you: Kansas defeats Iowa State this weekend, moves to #2 in next week's rankings, then loses at home to Missouri, effectively ending their improbable championship aspirations. And that is just the problem with college football. It is absurd that a team can lose their shot at the National Championship in the period of just three hours.

College football needs a playoff system. Desperatly. This season has shown just how unbelieveably exciting and intriguing a bracket would be. Look at the above list. USC, Boston College, and Oregon could all beat anyone in the country on a given day and win the National Championship. On the flip side, they have shown that they can slip up and lose to anybody. Stanford? The 2007 Seminoles? ARIZONA? Who would've ever thought? College athletes, as great as they seem, are flawed. They are a collection of 18-22 year olds, who aren't far removed from their high school days. They make mistakes- a lot of them- and that's why we've seen the powers fall more frequently this season. That is the beauty of college sports, particularly college basketball, which has the greatest postseason set up of all sports- pro and college.

There is no reason to think that a 16 or 24 team playoff would be any less exciting. This season, more than any other in the past, has shown that any team is capable of winning every Saturday. Appalachian State won in Michigan for God sakes! Imagine the top 24 teams in the country fighting for the championship. College football's playoff might actually be more exciting then March Madness because every team in the bracket would have a shot, and there would be no watered down talent in the bracket. The only problem with upsets in college basketball is when those "lesser teams" go upset crazy, they ruin the later rounds because the top seeds that make it through will almost always win without the dramatics that fans long for in march.

Think about a Boston College v. West Virginia match up. That would be a pretty good National Championship indeed. With a playoff system however, that would be a first round game in this year's bracket! Or how about a second round game between the winners of Oregon/Michigan and Florida/USC? I'm not a big college football fan, mainly because they don't have a January Madness, but I can promise you that I would be college football biggest fan if and when they decide to go to this format.

This plea to the NCAA shouldn't be about me, or you, or the television ratings, or sponsors. It should be about the student athletes and coaches who dream about playing for the National Championship their whole lives, only to lose that dream in the matter of hours. Every team deserves a chance, and that is what March Madness provides teams in college basketball.

To the higher ups in college football, it's your turn to follow suite. With a playoff system the "Curse of #2" wouldn't be a curse, just another bump in the road for a championship caliber team.

Until next time,
DTM

Thursday, November 15, 2007

Dolphins should let Ricky have one last run

For much of yesterday, I was torn on what the Miami Dolphins should do with the arguably the biggest enigma in the sporting world. That would be Ricky Williams, who was reinstated by the NFL yesterday after an 18-month suspension for violating the league's substance abuse policy for the umteenth time. At first I thought of all the times Ricky has burned the Dolphins and their loyal fans, such as myself, the past three years and thought "the hell with him." After listening to Jason Taylor talk yesterday, it seems like he shares my initial reaction. However, the more I thought about it, the more I think the Dolphins would be foolish for not bringing back Williams.

There are a number of reasons to bring him back and let him play the final six games of the season, and there is only one legitmate rebuttal. The only "yea but" that comes to mind would be that he'll burn the franchise once again. This can't happen. Well it could, but it is very unlikely. When Ricky is actually playing football for a team, he has displayed that he cares very much about the game and is a very hard worker. It is incredibly unlikely that after just being reinstated, and with it likely being made very clear to him that this is his last chance in the NFL, he would go roll a joint and smoke it. If that actually were the case, he would still likely get through the season before it was discovered that he failed a test. Keep in mind that his last failed test was in Dec. 2005, and it wasn't discovered until five months later. The Dolphins season will be over in seven weeks, so he'll finish the season one way or the other. When you look at it, the only way he could burn the team would be to fail another test, which would effectively end his NFL career, meaning the team wouldn't receive that sixth round pick they're likely to receive when they attempt to trade him this winter. Ouch!

On to the reasons why Cam Cameron and GM Randy Mueller; who drafted Williams in '99 then traded him to Miami in '02. First and foremost, the likelyhood of him playing out the season and playing well is good. Despite their winless record, the Dolphins have one of the best rushing offenses in the NFL, and one of the league's most underrated offensive lines. If he were to come in and play well over the final six games, it would bring Miami another draft pick. Cameron and Mueller talk until they're blue in the face about the importance of building through the draft, and while it will be a late second-day pick, something is better then nothing which is what they would get if they just cut him.

That brings me to my next point. If they just release him, any team can take him. There are some very good teams that would almost certainly take a flier on Ricky; i.e. New England and Green Bay, who is desperate for a running back. Williams could make the Dolphins look very foolish for just releasing him and letting a 9-0 or an 8-1 team get him for the veteran's minimum.

This will sound funny, but at this point in the season, the team needs Ricky. They have already lost Ronnie Brown and have journeyman Jessie Chatman starting in his place. Behind Chatman is another journeyman (Patrick Cobbs) and 3rd round pick Lorenzo Booker, who got injured on his first play of the season last week against Buffalo. So go ahead and release Ricky, but what happens if Chatman goes down? The Dolphins almost certainly would be rummaging through the waiver wire to bring in to start instead of turning to Cobbs or Booker. In that instance, the team would really be slapping themselves over releasing Williams.

The team needs something.. anything, to keep the fans coming to the games for the final month and a half of this miserable season and what better figure then Ricky Williams? Warranted or not, Williams brings a media circus, meaning an 0-9 team would be getting much more publicity then they deserve. Williams would would instantly become the Dolphins best player on offense and the fans would fall back on the love side of their love/hate relationship with him. You can bet that Dolphins Stadium will be significantly more packed for their final three home games, regardless of their record, if Williams is on board and getting carries. I, for one, would be much more intrigued.

And finally, get this Miami: HE MIGHT ACTUALLY HELP YOU WIN A GAME!!! I know winning has become a foreign concept for this once proud franchise, but getting on this season is a possibility. In fact, five of their nine losses have been by three points or less. Who knows, maybe Ricky will make that key reception, or bust that game clinching ten-yard run that will prevent the offense from punting and causing the inevitable (a last second loss). Once again, he will instantly become the offense's most polished and accomplished player.

I probably could've saved you and me both a lot of time by saying only this: you're 0-9... what do you have to lose?!

Until next time,
DTM

Sunday, November 11, 2007

Dissecting the issues in Chicago

As you may have noticed, I predicted the Chicago Bulls to break through in 2007-08 and win the Eastern Conference. As of today, they are actually making me look like a professional member of the media; one who makes predictions thinking they know it all, but in reality are just as lost as a member of your high school goth club. The Bulls are 1-5 through six games and are coming off a 30-point home loss to the Toronto Raptors. They have also lost home games to the 76ers and Clippers, and have a road loss to Milwaukee. It's not quite time to panic, as the Bulls started 3-9 last year and finished with 49 wins and a playoff sweep of the then-World Champion Miami Heat. Here's a look at five things that have put Chicago in their current state, things they must address if I am going to look any smarter than my sister when it comes to sports predictions.

1. Lack of post presence: If you know anything about the NBA, you know that the Chicago Bulls, even in their championship years, had a serious lack of a player who could score on the low blocks. They start Ben Wallace, a $60M waste who is averaging an overwhelmingly bad 3.5 points and 4.8 rebounds in 27 minutes of play. Wallace is known for his defensive prowess and rebounding, so you figure those numbers will improve, but again, he gives you nothing in terms of offense. They have Tyrus Thomas at the four. Thomas is a great athlete with a ton of potential, but cannot play with his back to the basket, and gets pushed around by bigger, stronger forwards. A few nice players come off the bench- Joe Smith, Andres Nocioni- but are very similar to Thomas offensivly. Until the Bulls get a reliable post presence who can take attention away from the perimeter shooters, they will struggle.

2. Dying by the jumper: As TNT's Charles Barkley put it this week at the half of the Bulls/Pistons game, "You don't live by the jumper, you die by the jumper. The Bulls are dying by the jumper." Surprise, Surprise, Sir Charles was right. As a team, Chicago is shooting 38% as a team. Other then Luol Deng and Nocioni, the team's most reliable scorers are off to miserable starts shooting the ball. Ben Gordon is shooting 35%, Kirk Hinrich 32%, Chris Duhon 37%, Thabo Sefelosha 21%. These four players all are primarily jump shooters, and if they're all on on a given night, very few teams can beat them, however, that is very unlikely. Similar to Wallace's early troubles in his area of expertise, you figure the Bulls shooting percentages will go up because these guys are good shooters, but they need to find a way to get more points in the paint and more easy buckets in transition to offset the early shooting struggles.

3. Defense has been offensive: Stellar defense has been a staple of Scott Skiles teams the past couple seasons. The Bulls are consistently in the top-5 of points allowed and shooting percentage against. Opponents are shooting 43%, and 37% from three point land. In case you are unaware, that is very bad, especially the three point percentage. They are also allowing 96 ppg, which would finish about middle of the pack at seasons end, but it's a problem when your offense is only averaging 86 ppg. The team is full of energy players and capable defenders, and knowing the offense is struggling, the team should be that much more focused defensivly. They are also sitting at -3 for rebounding average on the season. Again, Ben Wallace was mistakenly given $60M to make sure that doesn't happen. He is killing the Bulls and my fantasy team.

4. Very little bench production: Of the team's 86.5 point average, the bench is averaging 32.2 of those points. That doesn't look bad at first glance, but you have to look a bit deeper to see the problem. Skiles has 11 players playing 17 minutes or more, so he goes very deep into his rotation. Seventeen minutes is more then enough time to find an offensive rhythem in a game, and very few are actually doing that for Chicago. Andres Nocioni has been admirable, averaging 11.7 points, and Joe Smith is putting in 8.7 a clip. As you see there, two of the six players bench players are accounting for 20.4 of the 32.2 points the bench produces. That means four players getting decent minutes are doing very little to justify their time on the court. The biggest problem lies at point guard where Chris Duhon is providing no relief from Kirk Hinrich's early struggles from the field when he comes into the game. Point guard is the team's most important position, especially when you have nothing on the low blocks, and the Bulls are getting nothing from either of theirs.

5. Kobe trade rumors: The front office made a mistake by getting active in the Kobe-chase just days before the regular season started. This clearly affected the team's best player, and bargaining chip, Luol Deng, and that has had a resonating affect on the team as a whole. Kobe is not only a drain on his own organization, but he's now proving to be a drain on other teams as well. Look, Luol Deng is not Kobe, but he is budding into a bonafide superstar, just ask the Miami Heat and Detroit Pistons. His numbers aren't bad right to this point, but he needs to be on the floor longer then his 33 minute average and the offense needs to go through him. What Skiles should do is give him the extra three minutes that he's instead giving to the league's best chucker, Ben Gordon. Deng is the team's best player, certainly their most efficient player on offense, and becoming a lockdown defender on defense. If the team is going to crawl out of this early hole, it's going to be because of Deng. If that is going to happen sooner rather then later, the front office needs to make it clear that this kid is not for sale, so that he may focus on getting his current team right, rather then thinking of going to another.

Until next time,
DTM

Tuesday, November 6, 2007

Remove the asterisk

Former Dolphins head coach Don Shula came out and said today that if the New England Patriots finished the season undefeated then there should be an asterisk placed next to their accomplishment. The elevation of the term "asterisk" to the level of something that has become pop-culture is getting a bit out of hand. According to Shula, the Patriots should be mentioned in the same sentence as the Asterisk King, Barry Bonds. According to me, Don Shula should be mentioned in the same sentence as Rich Cotite because, despite all his coaching prowess, he failed to win a Super Bowl in his final 22 seasons as head coach and that includes twelve seasons with the greatest quarterback of all time at the helm. Throw in the fact that he drafted horribly aside from his selection of Marino, but then again, how could blow that pick? Anyway I digress, lets view each case and determine whether an asterisk should truly be applied.

Barry Bonds: I'm required by law to start with Bonds and I may be tarred and feathered by the three people who read this blog after they read this argument, but here goes. People believe Bonds all-time home run record should have an asterisk next to it. Barry Bonds was a 3-time MVP and a 6-time Gold Glove winner before he allegedly used steroids, so he wasn't exactly a slouch before then. Going into the 2001 season, the year he hit his record setting 73 home runs, Bonds hit an average of 33 home runs per season. The three seasons that proceeded 2001, he hit 46, 45 and 45, numbers that are not abnormal for Bonds because he has hit at least 40 home runs in six different seasons. Now get ready for this because you're going to love it. In the 2005 season, Bonds played 14 games and hit five home runs. If you average Bonds highest home run total in a season (73) and his lowest total (5) you get 39 home runs. That's a whopping six home runs more then his career average in a season. If Bonds played the whole 2005 season and was sitting at 800-something home runs, I could see people's argument for the "asterisk," however, his five home run season pretty much negated the incredible jump on the record his season with 73 home runs in 2001 gave him. What I'm trying to say is Bonds would still have great odds of breaking the home run record with just an average 2001 season and a full-2005 season. Now you're saying that's hypothetical, but isn't too the idea that he used steroids? People forget that six years later, despite all the suspicion, Bonds has yet to be convicted of doing anything illegal. It's time to Iet it go people, move on. Bonds is the best baseball player of all-time not named Babe Ruth, and the best home run hitter of all-time. Period.

2007 New England Patriots: The Patriots are 9-0 and winning their games by an average of 23 points. Included in that average was their 24-point thrashing of a Jets team that is 1-8, and basically 0-8 because their only win came against a team that is still winless. Now, had the Patriots not videotaped the Jets signals, does anybody really think the Jets would've beaten the Patriots that day? Anybody? No? Didn't think so. The Patriots didn't use signals against the 7-1 Cowboys and won in Dallas by 21. No signals were used in their big win in Indy this weekend either, and they found a way to win. It's actually possible that the Patriots could've won by more had they not taped the Jets signals because watching the Jets do anything might have such a negative effect that it makes you worse for however brief a time. Why they did this to begin with is beyond me because it's clear that they didn't need the advantage, but that is what makes Bill Belichek the champion that he is; the man is always looking for the advantage. Have the Patriots taped teams signals since Spygate? No. Would their record be any different had Spygate never occured? Negative. Are the Patriots going to go undefeated? Probably. But that's what makes the timing of this statement by Shula so perplexing. There are seven games left in the season, and a few decent opportunities for the Patriots to be beaten. Then there's the postseason where anything is possible, just ask the pre-2006 Colts. My guess is Shula knows his '72 Dolphins would get murdered by the '07 Patriots as badly as the '07 Dolphins did, and he wanted to make his precious record look a bit more legit. Whatever the reason, Shula should just keep his mouth shut and move the asterisk he intends to put on New England's pending perfect season next to his name for "greatest coach of all-time," because any coach who can't win multiple Super Bowls with Dan Marino should've never been in the business to begin with.

Is Bonds ALLEGED actions, and Belichek's Spygate scam unethical and illegal? Absolutly. But as you should now realize, there is no reason to not acknowledge the greatness of both parties. In all likelyhood, both parties would likely be in the same position they are now- atop the record books- with or without the unethical actions that people feel warrant America's new favorite term: an asterisk.

Until next time,
DTM

Friday, November 2, 2007

McGrady on a mission

The first 10 years of Tracy McGrady's NBA career has been a rollercoaster ride of sorts. There have been many ups, but arguably more downs for this enigmatic superstar. The ups include his two scoring titles, seven All-Star appearances, a 62-point game against the Wizards, and most notibly, for me at least, his 35-second barrage against the Spurs in 2004 in which he scored 13 points to lead his team back from a 10-point defecit in the last half minute. Those INDIVIDUAL accomplishments are all well and good, but the downs of his career are highlighted by his teams failure in the postseason. It's amazing that a player with T-Mac's ability has yet to be out of the first round in six tries. Granted he has only been the "favorite" once, last year against the Jazz, but as we saw even in that series, the Jazz had a much tougher and deeper roster than his Rockets. McGrady has endured four Game 7 losses- two with the lowly Magic and two with Houston- with the latest appearing to hit him the hardest. Remember last year when he left the podium speechless following the Game 7 home loss to Utah? While many people say professional athletes don't care about the results, only the money, it's clear that McGrady cares about winning and cares about his legacy.

Before Thursday night's game in Salt Lake City, McGrady said something along the lines of "this game isn't about revenge, it's about coming into a tough environment and getting a win at a place where we haven't won in awhile." All very true, but if you had the privilage to watch last night, it was clear T-Mac was out to exorcise a few demons that remained from last spring. He went off on the Jazz for 47 points, and added four assists and four rebounds in Houston's 106-95 victory. He kept the Rockets in the game in the first quarter when they trailed by as much as 12, and kept the Jazz at arms length the rest of the night, despite a few Utah runs. McGrady showed the aggression thay may have been lacking in the final five minutes of Game 7 last year when his Rockets had a five-point lead and the momentum. He didn't settle for jumpers, although he did hit two big ones late. All night long he was blowing by whichever helpless defender Jerry Sloan assigned to him, whether it was Ronnie Brewer or Andrei Kirilenko, and finishing with authority. Some may attribute his play not so much to a new found aggression, but to the new offense Rick Adelman has brought to town. It may be a mixture of both, but it was clear from the beginning that the head and heart of T-Mac were in this game from the start. Late in the game when he hit one of his deep jumpers to put another dagger into a Utah run, McGrady put his right index finger to his mouth to silence the same Utah crowd that he could not in three tries last spring. It had to be a liberating feeling for him and his Rockets teammates that felt the same disappointment after the playoff series loss.

Through the first two games of this young season, numero-uno appears to be on a mission. He is 28 years old, in his 11th season, and despite his talk in the preseason, the window is closing on his chances to claim the championship that has eluded him to this point. While McGrady has always been very confident publicly, I believe this is something he truly realizes, and I also believe that he sees this team as one that can win big. He had to know coming in that the first month or so would be a rough adjustment period with all the new faces and the installment of a completely new offense, because through the first two games he has carried the team late in games, and has been efficient doing it. He had 30 points on 20 shots against the Kobe's, and 47 on 27 against the Jazz.

He loves his new coach, has raved about his the new offense, has great chemistry with his partner in crime (Yao), and has dreamt for years of having a bench this deep. The pieces are there for T-Mac and the Rockets to do something big this season and the highest of highs can be reached if he truly is what he appears to be thus far: a man on a mission.

Until next time,
DTM