Another NFL season is upon us, with these predictions coming a tad bit late following Thursday night's opener, a 16-7 Giants victory over Washington. Here's how I see this season playing out, although these picks mean little seeing as how I picked a Cincinnati/New Orleans Super Bowl last year and both teams failed to qualify for the playoffs. Hopefully I'll fair a little better in 2008:
AFC East:
1. Patriots
2. Jets
3. Bills
4. Dolphins
Outlook: Even with the addition of Brett Favre and stronger teams in Buffalo and Miami, the Patriots remain the cream of the AFC crop. Say all you want about the defense being old and Tom Brady being injured, but it's hard to turn your back on a team that was one defensive stand away from finishing 19-0 in February. New England didn't undergo much change this offseason unlike the rest of the division and with the easiest schedule in the NFL, they could make another run at history. Although that is unlikely, there is little doubt here that they will sit atop an improved AFC East once again.
AFC North:
1. Steelers
2. Bengals
3. Browns
4. Ravens
Outlook: Many feel after last season's 10-6 showing that Cleveland will finally break through and win the North. Not me. Take a look at the Browns starting secondary: Eric Wright, Sean Jones, Brodney Poole and Brandon McDonald. If you think that is a playoff-caliber secondary, you have another thing coming. The NFL is a league of quarterbacks and it's becoming more of a "throw the ball and stop the pass" league than the flip side. Maybe they'll prove me wrong by shutting down the passing machine that is the Dallas Cowboys in Week 1, but probably not. I'm also not convinced Derrick Anderson is anything more than a one hit wonder. The Steelers are still the team to beat in the North. They have the best quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger, the strongest running game and one of the league's most underrated receiving corps, led by one of my favorites, Hines Ward. They also have the defense to keep them in games against high powered offenses that show up on their schedule, such as Indy, Dallas, San Diego and New England. The same cannot be said for the other three teams in this division.
AFC South:
1. Colts
2. Titans
3. Jaguars
4. Texans
Outlook: You wonder when the South standings are going to be shaken up and although I have the Colts winning the division, this could be the year. Peyton Manning is hurt, as is Jeff Saturday and Marvin Harrison is old. The defensive front is still small, Dwight Freeney is still overrated and they start two linebackers that I've never heard of. The pick simply came down to Manning being better than Vince Young and David Garrard because aside from that I like both the Titans and Jaguars more than the Colts. They sport two of the league's top defenses and have a few sleepers on offense. Chris Johnson, the Titans 1st round pick in April, has looked dangerously explosive during the preseason. Jacksonville's starting receivers, Jerry Porter and Troy Williamson, come to town with baggage, but both have ability and have been given the fresh start they had been seeking. As for the Texans, they'll go down as one of the best last place teams in NFL history. It's too bad they are stuck in such a loaded division.
AFC West:
1. Chargers
2. Raiders
3. Broncos
4. Chiefs
Outlook: There isn't much to debate here. The Chargers are arguably the best team in football and the Raiders, Broncos and Chiefs could all find themselves drafting in the top-10 next April as I can't see any of them finishing above .500. The only question is how early will the Chargers clinch the division title. New England wrapped up the East before December last season and it wouldn't be a surprise if LT and the Bolts did the same in '08.
NFC East:
1. Cowboys
2. Redskins
3. Giants
4. Eagles
Outlook: Like the AFC South, this division has four playoff-caliber teams, but unlike the South, there is no question who the best team in the East is. The Dallas Cowboys are loaded. They added Zach Thomas and Adam Jones to the defense giving them something like 28 Pro Bowlers on the roster. If they don't at least represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, this season is a failure, plain and simple. I think Wade Phillips, Jerry Jones, Tony Romo, TO and every Cowboys fan on earth would tell you the same. As for the other three teams, they'll all battle one another for one of the two wild cards. I don't see three teams from this division making the playoffs and if I had to choose right now, I'd take the Redskins over the other two. Jason Campbell is poised for a breakout year, although he certainly didn't look the part Thursday night, and he has a few weapons in Clinton Portis, Santana Moss and tight end Chris Cooley. The defense added future Hall of Famer Jason Taylor to an already solid front seven. As long as they don't fall behind early while adjusting to new head coach Jim Zorn's system, they should have enough to hold off the Giants and Eagles.
NFC North:
1. Vikings
2. Packers
3. Lions
4. Bears
Outlook: If Adrian Peterson can stay healthy for all of the 2008 season, the Vikings should win this division race which is primed to be one of the NFL's closest in 2008. It might not be that close, but for some ungodly reason, Tavaris Jackson is still their starting quarterback. But the defense is still loaded with playmakers and ball control and solid defense will take you a long way in the NFL. For the first time in almost two decades, Brett Favre will not be under center for Green Bay, but don't expect the wheels to fall off as a result. Aaron Rogers is ready and he'll have help from Donald Driver, Ryan Grant and a solid defense. The Lions started 2007 6-2 and made Jon Kitna look like a genius on his preseason call that they would win 10 games. That was before they dropped their last eight and proved him to be the idiot that he is. I can't quite figure out why Detroit is so bad all the time because they really do have talent, however, I can't pick them any higher until that talent actually accounts for more wins. And in other news, the Chicago Bears, who were in the Super Bowl 18 months ago, actually had a quarterback competition between Kyle Orton and Rex Grossman this summer. Orton, Grossman, Orton, Grossman.. does it even matter? And Daunte Culpepper retired from football this week because he can't find a job. That's rather puzzling when analyzing the Bears quandary.
NFC South:
1. Saints
2. Panthers
3. Buccaneers
4. Falcons
Outlook: The Saints stole Jeremy Shockey this summer and could end up with the best record in the NFC, even though Dallas is the team to beat. That's because the South plays the NFC North and the pitiful AFC West this season so they should pile up the wins even though they aren't as good as the record may show. We'll have to wait until January to find out. The Panthers, because of the same reason, should squeeze in to the last playoff spot despite not being better than teams such as the Packers and Giants who could be on the outside looking in. But don't overlook Carolina. They have Jake Delhomme back, along with two solid running backs in DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. We all know what Steve Smith can do once he returns from suspension and they sport the best defense in the division. The Bucs have enough talent to stay in the playoff picture for much of the season and the Falcons will still be horrible, but will be more fun to watch and see how they ruin Matt Ryan's career before it even had a chance. Too bad, he really has the makings of a star.
NFC West:
1. Seahawks
2. Cardinals
3. Rams
4. 49ers
Outlook: The NFC West is much like the AFC version with Seattle being the only playoff-caliber team in the division, much like San Diego is in the AFC West. The Cardinals have some talent on offense, but Anquan Boldin wants out and Kurt Warner is 100. They say they won't trade Boldin because they are going to make a run at the playoffs, but the Cardinals have zero chance of making the playoffs. None. Zilch. Zippo. If the 'Hawks can get their receivers healthy, they should have another good season, and here's hoping they do since it's supposedly the last for one of the game's best coaches in Mike Holmgren. And real quickly, since this really doesn't deserve much attention, the 49ers spent their summer deciding who would be the quarterback between 1st pick bust Alex Smith, JT O'Sullivan and Shaun Hill. Why didn't Drew Olsen get a fair shot? He is afterall on the roster and looking at those names, that seems to be the only requirement. But I digress. Why on earth wouldn't they bring in Culpepper for a look? Just a look. I'd be willing to bet my well being that he could walk in next week and be a better option than any of those three. Just a hunch.
AFC Playoffs:
1. Patriots
2. Chargers
3. Steelers
4. Colts
5. Titans
6. Jets
Just Missed: Jaguars
NFC Playoffs:
1. Cowboys
2. Saints
3. Vikings
4. Seahawks
5. Panthers
6. Redskins
Just Missed: Packers, Giants
Wild Card:
Steelers over Jets, Titans over Colts
Vikings over Redskins, Panthers over Seahawks
Divisional:
Patriots over Titans, Chargers over Steelers
Cowboys over Panthers, Saints over Vikings
Conference Championships:
Chargers over Patriots
Cowboys over Saints
Super Bowl:
Cowboys: 27
Chargers: 21
MVP: DeMarcus Ware
Awards:
MVP: Tony Romo
Coach of the Year: Sean Peyton
Offensive POY: Adrian Peterson
Defensive POY: DeMarcus Ware
Offensive ROY: Darren McFadden
Defensive ROY: Leondis McKelvin
Comeback POY: Ricky Williams
NostraDTMus
Saturday, September 6, 2008
Saturday, August 9, 2008
Pulse on Fins/Jets following QB upgrades
The Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets, already one of the NFL's more storied rivalries, just got a bit more venomous after some serious movement on the quarterback carousel. Sports' most annoying legend, Brett Favre, finally settled his beef with the only franchise he had ever played for and was shipped to the Big Apple to complete a very active offseason for the Jets. As a result of Favre's arrival, New York released veteran starter Chad Pennington after he led them to three playoff appearances in his eight seasons there. Roughly 36 hours later, Bill Parcells brought Pennington, the quarterback he drafted while leading the Jets eight years ago, to Miami to end their quarterback competition that was going nowhere. Round and round we go.
The events of the past few days have changed the Dolphins/Jets Week 1 battle from the week's most meaningless train wreck of a game between two bottom feeders into one of the more intriguing games in the opening stanza of the 2008 season. Favre alone would create a media circus, but Pennington starting for his old rival against the team that kicked him to the curb hours after the acquisition makes it all the juicier. My money is still on the J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets, as it would have been had Favre stayed in Mississippi and Pennington, or Kellen Clemens or Vinny Testeverde were starting for the Gang Green. But how much better do the changes under center in Miami and New York really make these two teams that were 0-12 and 2-9, (dis)respectively, the last time they met in Miami? Let's have a looksy.
Start with the Jets. Bringing Favre to town instantly makes them a playoff CONTENDER. He does not assure them of a playoff spot nor does he make them one of the top three favorites to come out of the AFC this season. New York out-spent every team in the NFL by a wide margin this offseason, but more often than not, they overspent on the free agents they brought in. Giving $30M+ to thirty-two year-old Alan Faneca? Undoubtably a move that makes the team better today, but they will regret that contract in two years. Giving Calvin Pace $32M? One rule to follow when trying to build a successful franchise is you never give a dime of your money to a free agent defender from the Arizona Cardinals. Lastly, maybe the worst signing of the offseason was the 5-year, $25.5M contract they gave ex-DETROIT LION OL Damien Woody. After losing his job at center last season, the Lions moved Woody to right guard. He apparently was so bad that he was benched and placed on the inactive list for three games. Jets management felt it would be a good idea to throw millions at Woody and put him at right tackle, a position he has never played in his life. So to recap, the Jets overpaid on a lineman in his mid-30's, and players from the Lions and Cardinals. Well, at least they're bringing in winners.
Anyway, I really digressed there. The point is, the money the Jets are giving Favre may be the only money they get a return on. However, Faneca, at least for a season, will make New York's O-line formidable, which will give Favre enough time to throw to his new receivers. Laveraneus Coles and Jerricho Cotchery rarely get much TV time, but are two of the better pass catchers in the NFL. They go from good to possibly great playing with Favre. The offense has other playmakers such as running backs Thomas Jones and Leon Washington, so offense won't be the problem. For all the money they spent, the Jets didn't do much to upgrade the defense, which ranked 18th and allowed 22 points per game last year.
If Favre has another year like 2007, the Jets will be able to win by outscoring teams. With that being said, the 2005 and 2006 versions of Favre are not as distant as they may seem so that's a dangerous strategy to play on. My guess is Favre plays below the level he played at last season, but much closer to that than 2005-06. He and his new team will be aided by one of the NFL's easier schedules that has them playing the NFC and AFC West, with conference games against NO-D Cinnci and Denver, which should bring enough wins to squeeze New York into the playoffs. Prediction: 10-6, 2nd in AFC East, #6 seed in AFC.
There isn't as much to debate with Pennington and the Dolphins because his presence doesn't turn Miami into a playoff team or even a contender for the Wild Card. This much is true about Pennington: he is experienced, a great leader and, when healthy, extremely accurate. In fact, he is the most accurate passer in NFL history, and he should be because he rarely throws passes over 15 yards since his arm isn't strong enough to do so. He brings a 32-29 record as a starter and the aura of someone who has, ya know, actually been in the playoffs the past six years. The biggest problem is that Pennington has been a Dolphin killer throughout his career, meaning that he is now playing for the team in the division that he was guaranteed to beat twice this season. He was 1-7 as a starter in 2007. The one win? A 31-28 victory over the Fish, in which he accounted for three touchdowns (2 passing, 1 rushing). He had just eight touchdowns in the other seven games he started.
The thinking here is Pennington is a major upgrade over Josh McCown or Jon Beck and will fit nicely into Miami's run-first offense. And he doesn't have to worry about his weak arm affecting the offense because the Dolphins don't have any receivers that can stretch the field anyway, making his dink and dunk style an effective one for this team. His accuracy and leadership should help Miami win a few of the seven games they lost by three points or less in 2007. If nothing else, his presence will allow rookie Chad Henne to watch and learn on the sideline for a year, rather than being thrown into the fire too early. Prediction: 6-10, 4th in AFC East.
DTM
The events of the past few days have changed the Dolphins/Jets Week 1 battle from the week's most meaningless train wreck of a game between two bottom feeders into one of the more intriguing games in the opening stanza of the 2008 season. Favre alone would create a media circus, but Pennington starting for his old rival against the team that kicked him to the curb hours after the acquisition makes it all the juicier. My money is still on the J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets, as it would have been had Favre stayed in Mississippi and Pennington, or Kellen Clemens or Vinny Testeverde were starting for the Gang Green. But how much better do the changes under center in Miami and New York really make these two teams that were 0-12 and 2-9, (dis)respectively, the last time they met in Miami? Let's have a looksy.
Start with the Jets. Bringing Favre to town instantly makes them a playoff CONTENDER. He does not assure them of a playoff spot nor does he make them one of the top three favorites to come out of the AFC this season. New York out-spent every team in the NFL by a wide margin this offseason, but more often than not, they overspent on the free agents they brought in. Giving $30M+ to thirty-two year-old Alan Faneca? Undoubtably a move that makes the team better today, but they will regret that contract in two years. Giving Calvin Pace $32M? One rule to follow when trying to build a successful franchise is you never give a dime of your money to a free agent defender from the Arizona Cardinals. Lastly, maybe the worst signing of the offseason was the 5-year, $25.5M contract they gave ex-DETROIT LION OL Damien Woody. After losing his job at center last season, the Lions moved Woody to right guard. He apparently was so bad that he was benched and placed on the inactive list for three games. Jets management felt it would be a good idea to throw millions at Woody and put him at right tackle, a position he has never played in his life. So to recap, the Jets overpaid on a lineman in his mid-30's, and players from the Lions and Cardinals. Well, at least they're bringing in winners.
Anyway, I really digressed there. The point is, the money the Jets are giving Favre may be the only money they get a return on. However, Faneca, at least for a season, will make New York's O-line formidable, which will give Favre enough time to throw to his new receivers. Laveraneus Coles and Jerricho Cotchery rarely get much TV time, but are two of the better pass catchers in the NFL. They go from good to possibly great playing with Favre. The offense has other playmakers such as running backs Thomas Jones and Leon Washington, so offense won't be the problem. For all the money they spent, the Jets didn't do much to upgrade the defense, which ranked 18th and allowed 22 points per game last year.
If Favre has another year like 2007, the Jets will be able to win by outscoring teams. With that being said, the 2005 and 2006 versions of Favre are not as distant as they may seem so that's a dangerous strategy to play on. My guess is Favre plays below the level he played at last season, but much closer to that than 2005-06. He and his new team will be aided by one of the NFL's easier schedules that has them playing the NFC and AFC West, with conference games against NO-D Cinnci and Denver, which should bring enough wins to squeeze New York into the playoffs. Prediction: 10-6, 2nd in AFC East, #6 seed in AFC.
There isn't as much to debate with Pennington and the Dolphins because his presence doesn't turn Miami into a playoff team or even a contender for the Wild Card. This much is true about Pennington: he is experienced, a great leader and, when healthy, extremely accurate. In fact, he is the most accurate passer in NFL history, and he should be because he rarely throws passes over 15 yards since his arm isn't strong enough to do so. He brings a 32-29 record as a starter and the aura of someone who has, ya know, actually been in the playoffs the past six years. The biggest problem is that Pennington has been a Dolphin killer throughout his career, meaning that he is now playing for the team in the division that he was guaranteed to beat twice this season. He was 1-7 as a starter in 2007. The one win? A 31-28 victory over the Fish, in which he accounted for three touchdowns (2 passing, 1 rushing). He had just eight touchdowns in the other seven games he started.
The thinking here is Pennington is a major upgrade over Josh McCown or Jon Beck and will fit nicely into Miami's run-first offense. And he doesn't have to worry about his weak arm affecting the offense because the Dolphins don't have any receivers that can stretch the field anyway, making his dink and dunk style an effective one for this team. His accuracy and leadership should help Miami win a few of the seven games they lost by three points or less in 2007. If nothing else, his presence will allow rookie Chad Henne to watch and learn on the sideline for a year, rather than being thrown into the fire too early. Prediction: 6-10, 4th in AFC East.
DTM
Monday, July 21, 2008
Taylor To Washington Bittersweet Move For Dolphins
He deserves thanks, appreciation and respect for all of the skill and passion he showed on the field, and for all of the class he showed off of it. The Dolphins traded Jason Taylor on Sunday, and, yes, it was a very good trade. But that doesn't mean it has to feel good.- Greg Cote of the Miami Herald.
Jason Taylor, the face of the Miami Dolphins franchise since Dan Marino's retirement in April 2000, was officially introduced as the newest member of the Washington Redskins yesterday. Despite the inevitability of the situation, the Taylor trade is as bittersweet as they come. Bitter because No. 99 was the best player on the team since Danny Boy left and, aside from the reality of Miami's bleak situation, gave fans and teammates hope that his presence alone could deliver a victory on any given Sunday. Bitter because his departure leaves those once hopeful fans with no justifiable reason to actually watch this season. Bitter because it is now official that Taylor joins a group of Dolphins greats that left town without a championship, underlining the fact that management wasted the elite years of his career. And bitter because his career in South Florida could not have ended any worse with a 1-15 finish in his farewell season and seven months of animosity between he and the new regime that had fans and analysts questioning his loyalty and love for the game. Loyalty? Miami hasn't been to the playoffs since the 2001 season and has had five head coaches in that six year span. If Taylor didn't have loyalty in his blood, don't you think he would've bolted for another city three or four years ago?
Now to the sweet part of the deal. Miami netted a second round pick in 2009 and a sixth round pick in 2010. Sweet. Taylor is the game's best pass rusher and one of the five best defenders in football. He is someone that teams spend an entire week game planning around and there aren't many players on the defensive side of the ball you can say that about. He has 100.5 sacks in the post-Marino years (2000) and second place is not close. Recently retired Michael Strahan is next with 89, a full season's worth of sacks behind JT. All that gets you a second round pick and a player who will be one of the team's first cuts in the summer of 2010? Sweet.
The great thing about all this is that it got Taylor out of Miami and gives him a chance at the storybook ending his illustrious career deserves. As nice as it would've been for him to finish with a 4-12 bang in aqua and orange, it would be much more fitting if he were to go out on top by bringing the Lombardi Trophy back to the nation's capital. The opportunity is there. The Redskins have a good, young quarterback in Jason Campbell, an explosive bunch of young receivers, a game-changer at running back in Clinton Portis and, now, an even better defense than the one that finished the 2007 season ranked eighth overall. Experts say Taylor doesn't help the 'Skins much because he's going to the worst team in the NFL's best division. Uh, what about the Philadelphia Eagles makes them better then Washington, who actually made the playoffs last year? And flukes aside, I'll take them over the New York Giants any day of the week in 2008. Dallas is the team to beat in the NFC East, but the Redskins will make the playoffs and, as the Giants demonstrated last winter, once you get there anything is possible.
It was said on a few occasions yesterday that this is a terrible deal for Washington because Taylor isn't the same player as he was two years ago. Well that makes sense because in 2006, the year he was named the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year, he upped the ante by recording an obscene 13.5 sacks, 10 forced fumbles, 4 fumble recoveries, and returned two interceptions for touchdowns. How could anyone expect a 33-year old to put on an encore performance better than that on a 1-15 team that had Matt Roth (who?) playing opposite end? Since when was his 2007 production of 11 sacks, 4 forced fumbles and an interception returned for a touchdown considered pedestrian? How many ends or linebackers would love to say they had those numbers and made a Pro Bowl? On a 1-15 team! That statement is simply idiotic. Taylor will give the organization every bit of energy he has on every down he plays this season. He'll celebrate the wins and mourn the losses, just as he did much too often the last few years in Miami. The trade injects him with new life, something he did not have at the end of last season and now there's no limit to the havoc he can wreak. The Redskins added a revitalized playmaker that instantly turns their defense from good to great and makes them a legitimate contender in the NFC.
On a side note, after leading one of the NFL's top defenses for 11 years in Miami, Taylor and Dallas Cowboys middle linebacker Zach Thomas will both finish their careers in the same division, on opposite sides of the league's most bitter rivalry. The two best defenders in Dolphins history will fight twice, maybe three times a year for the ultimate career achievement that both deserve to add to their legacy. Go get 'em boys. Let the Miami organization feel some bit of satisfaction and relief that, despite wasting most of your prime years, you left town just in time to add the one missing piece to Hall of Fame-worthy careers.
DTM
Jason Taylor, the face of the Miami Dolphins franchise since Dan Marino's retirement in April 2000, was officially introduced as the newest member of the Washington Redskins yesterday. Despite the inevitability of the situation, the Taylor trade is as bittersweet as they come. Bitter because No. 99 was the best player on the team since Danny Boy left and, aside from the reality of Miami's bleak situation, gave fans and teammates hope that his presence alone could deliver a victory on any given Sunday. Bitter because his departure leaves those once hopeful fans with no justifiable reason to actually watch this season. Bitter because it is now official that Taylor joins a group of Dolphins greats that left town without a championship, underlining the fact that management wasted the elite years of his career. And bitter because his career in South Florida could not have ended any worse with a 1-15 finish in his farewell season and seven months of animosity between he and the new regime that had fans and analysts questioning his loyalty and love for the game. Loyalty? Miami hasn't been to the playoffs since the 2001 season and has had five head coaches in that six year span. If Taylor didn't have loyalty in his blood, don't you think he would've bolted for another city three or four years ago?
Now to the sweet part of the deal. Miami netted a second round pick in 2009 and a sixth round pick in 2010. Sweet. Taylor is the game's best pass rusher and one of the five best defenders in football. He is someone that teams spend an entire week game planning around and there aren't many players on the defensive side of the ball you can say that about. He has 100.5 sacks in the post-Marino years (2000) and second place is not close. Recently retired Michael Strahan is next with 89, a full season's worth of sacks behind JT. All that gets you a second round pick and a player who will be one of the team's first cuts in the summer of 2010? Sweet.
The great thing about all this is that it got Taylor out of Miami and gives him a chance at the storybook ending his illustrious career deserves. As nice as it would've been for him to finish with a 4-12 bang in aqua and orange, it would be much more fitting if he were to go out on top by bringing the Lombardi Trophy back to the nation's capital. The opportunity is there. The Redskins have a good, young quarterback in Jason Campbell, an explosive bunch of young receivers, a game-changer at running back in Clinton Portis and, now, an even better defense than the one that finished the 2007 season ranked eighth overall. Experts say Taylor doesn't help the 'Skins much because he's going to the worst team in the NFL's best division. Uh, what about the Philadelphia Eagles makes them better then Washington, who actually made the playoffs last year? And flukes aside, I'll take them over the New York Giants any day of the week in 2008. Dallas is the team to beat in the NFC East, but the Redskins will make the playoffs and, as the Giants demonstrated last winter, once you get there anything is possible.
It was said on a few occasions yesterday that this is a terrible deal for Washington because Taylor isn't the same player as he was two years ago. Well that makes sense because in 2006, the year he was named the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year, he upped the ante by recording an obscene 13.5 sacks, 10 forced fumbles, 4 fumble recoveries, and returned two interceptions for touchdowns. How could anyone expect a 33-year old to put on an encore performance better than that on a 1-15 team that had Matt Roth (who?) playing opposite end? Since when was his 2007 production of 11 sacks, 4 forced fumbles and an interception returned for a touchdown considered pedestrian? How many ends or linebackers would love to say they had those numbers and made a Pro Bowl? On a 1-15 team! That statement is simply idiotic. Taylor will give the organization every bit of energy he has on every down he plays this season. He'll celebrate the wins and mourn the losses, just as he did much too often the last few years in Miami. The trade injects him with new life, something he did not have at the end of last season and now there's no limit to the havoc he can wreak. The Redskins added a revitalized playmaker that instantly turns their defense from good to great and makes them a legitimate contender in the NFC.
On a side note, after leading one of the NFL's top defenses for 11 years in Miami, Taylor and Dallas Cowboys middle linebacker Zach Thomas will both finish their careers in the same division, on opposite sides of the league's most bitter rivalry. The two best defenders in Dolphins history will fight twice, maybe three times a year for the ultimate career achievement that both deserve to add to their legacy. Go get 'em boys. Let the Miami organization feel some bit of satisfaction and relief that, despite wasting most of your prime years, you left town just in time to add the one missing piece to Hall of Fame-worthy careers.
DTM
Sunday, July 13, 2008
Sorry Philly, Brand Doesn't Make Sixers Instant Contenders
Elton Brand reneging on a pre-arranged deal to return to the Clippers and bolting for the City of Brotherly Love is bordering on old news, but the discussion of whether or not this makes the Philadelphia 76ers a legitimate championship contender will be a topic of debate for the remainder of the summer. As of today, the 76ers are not a championship caliber team. From where I stand, they look like the third best team in the Atlantic Division behind the champs and the revamped Toronto Raptors and you could make an argument that they are sixth in the Eastern Conference behind the Magic, LeBrons and the Pistons. I may be reaching here, but I'm not sure they're even better then the Miami Heat with a fully healthy Dwayne Wade, Shawn Marion (assuming he stays on board) and Michael Beasley. Even the Wizards trio of Agent Zero, Antwan Jamison and Caron Butler is more appealing than Brand, Andre Iguodala and Andre Miller. I see the Sixers finishing anywhere between the four and seven seed and if you aren't a top three seed in the still-Leastern Conference, you can't possibly be labeled a championship contender.
There are many questions that need to be answered about Philadelphia before we fire up the bandwagon. First, the average age on the team is 25.7 years, meaning they are very young. Secondly, the youth on the Sixers is nothing to get too excited about. Willie Green, Louis Amundson, Jason Smith, Thaddeus Young, Marreese Speights and, my personal favorite, Shavlik Randolph are all 26 or younger. Who in that group is going to help win a title in the next year or two? Next take a look at a projected eight-man rotation for the regular season opener in November. Obviously you have Brand, Iguodala and Miller, then throw in Reggie Evans, Green, Sam Dalembert, Louis Williams and Jason Smith. Do any of those names scare you? Having three very good players is great but, as the Boston Celtics just demonstrated, you still need a solid supporting cast around them to win a championship. Right now, the Sixers don't have that. It's safe to assume the organization regrets their decision to trade sharpshooter Kyle Korver to the Jazz for nothing last season since they are sorely lacking perimeter shooting.
Lastly, uncertainty surrounds each member of the "Big 3". Brand is coming off of a serious Achilles injury that forced him to miss all but eight games in 2007-08 and will be 30 before the 2009 playoffs roll around. Miller is coming off the best season of his career, in which he averaged a career-high 17 points and seven assists. Unfortunately, like Brand, Miller is on the downside of his career (he will be 33 next March) so it can't be assumed that he will be good for those numbers again in '08-09. And that brings us to Andre Iguodala. A.I. II appeared to be on the verge of cementing himself as one of the top-tier young stars in the game after averaging 19.9 points on 46% shooting, 5.4 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 2.1 steals during a brilliant regular season. Then came the playoff series against Detroit. Iguodala looked lost in his first playoff run against the more experienced Pistons, averaging just 13.2 points on 33% shooting. A rising star shouldn't be shot down based on his first playoff series against a postseason juggernaut, but that showing undeniably raises a red flag. If the Sixers roll into the playoffs next April and Iguodala pulls another disappearing act, Philadelphia will fade right with him regardless of what seed they earn.
Philly is led by one of the leagues finest coaches in Maurice Cheeks and has three Brand-name players (lame pun, I know) to lean on this season. But will Brand stay healthy? Can Miller continue to play at the level of a borderline All-Star as he enters his mid-30's? Will Iguodala find his regular season mojo and translate that into playoff success? If the answer to those three questions is yes, then do they have enough help around them to make a serious run? Until the real games tip off in November, it will be hard to gauge whether or not the new "Big 3" will be merely a great marketing tool or a band of brothers that make the 76ers a contender again.
DTM
There are many questions that need to be answered about Philadelphia before we fire up the bandwagon. First, the average age on the team is 25.7 years, meaning they are very young. Secondly, the youth on the Sixers is nothing to get too excited about. Willie Green, Louis Amundson, Jason Smith, Thaddeus Young, Marreese Speights and, my personal favorite, Shavlik Randolph are all 26 or younger. Who in that group is going to help win a title in the next year or two? Next take a look at a projected eight-man rotation for the regular season opener in November. Obviously you have Brand, Iguodala and Miller, then throw in Reggie Evans, Green, Sam Dalembert, Louis Williams and Jason Smith. Do any of those names scare you? Having three very good players is great but, as the Boston Celtics just demonstrated, you still need a solid supporting cast around them to win a championship. Right now, the Sixers don't have that. It's safe to assume the organization regrets their decision to trade sharpshooter Kyle Korver to the Jazz for nothing last season since they are sorely lacking perimeter shooting.
Lastly, uncertainty surrounds each member of the "Big 3". Brand is coming off of a serious Achilles injury that forced him to miss all but eight games in 2007-08 and will be 30 before the 2009 playoffs roll around. Miller is coming off the best season of his career, in which he averaged a career-high 17 points and seven assists. Unfortunately, like Brand, Miller is on the downside of his career (he will be 33 next March) so it can't be assumed that he will be good for those numbers again in '08-09. And that brings us to Andre Iguodala. A.I. II appeared to be on the verge of cementing himself as one of the top-tier young stars in the game after averaging 19.9 points on 46% shooting, 5.4 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 2.1 steals during a brilliant regular season. Then came the playoff series against Detroit. Iguodala looked lost in his first playoff run against the more experienced Pistons, averaging just 13.2 points on 33% shooting. A rising star shouldn't be shot down based on his first playoff series against a postseason juggernaut, but that showing undeniably raises a red flag. If the Sixers roll into the playoffs next April and Iguodala pulls another disappearing act, Philadelphia will fade right with him regardless of what seed they earn.
Philly is led by one of the leagues finest coaches in Maurice Cheeks and has three Brand-name players (lame pun, I know) to lean on this season. But will Brand stay healthy? Can Miller continue to play at the level of a borderline All-Star as he enters his mid-30's? Will Iguodala find his regular season mojo and translate that into playoff success? If the answer to those three questions is yes, then do they have enough help around them to make a serious run? Until the real games tip off in November, it will be hard to gauge whether or not the new "Big 3" will be merely a great marketing tool or a band of brothers that make the 76ers a contender again.
DTM
Monday, July 7, 2008
Wimbledon Final One of Sports Finest Moments
To pull a quote from the finest hour in the career of the late great comedian Chris Farley, "I swear I've seen a lot of things in my life. But that... was... awesome!" To make a slight revision to that statement, I've watched more sporting events in my life then I care to remember or report, but the 2008 Wimbledon final between Roger Federer and the new champion, Rafa Nadal, may be the best of them all. For once a championship event lived up to the hype that surrounded it and how often do you come away disappointed in situations like that? Let's go back just a few weeks to the French Open final, when many felt this was the year Federer would overcome Nadal to claim his first French title and complete the career Grand Slam. Federer instead was embarrassed, winning just four games and losing the final ten in a match that was over when it started.
The so-called experts began questioning Federer's game and his spot in history following that debacle, but let's make one thing clear after his 4-6, 4-6, 7-6 (5), 7-6 (8), 7-9 defeat on his home turf: his legacy is intact and when all is said and done, he will still go down as the best player in tennis history. In 2008 he has won two events, lost in the Australian Open semifinals to eventual-champion Novak Djokovic, and lost the French Open and Wimbledon final to Nadal. Just about every player on tour not named Roger Federer would kill to accomplish that much in a career, let alone a single year. As for yesterday's performance, aside from converting just one of 13 break chances, there isn't much more to dissect about Federer's play. In fact, that may have been one of the best matches he has ever played considering his opponent, the pesky rain delays and the stage itself. The saddest part about the final was that it had to end with a loser in a match that truly didn't deserve one.
Casual sports fans will say that you can turn on the last two minutes of a football or basketball game and that's all you need to see because ultimately everything else leading up to the last moment means nothing, which is absurd because there wouldn't be a last two minutes without the ones before them. The casual idiots that stand by that assertion would have no ground to stand on when talking about Sunday's final. Every point from game one to game 62 was played with the intensity of championship point and each player had to play it that way because they knew it was unlikely the other was going to make that fatal mistake that completely swung the momentum one way or the other. There were no service breaks from the fourth game of the second set up until the 15th game of the final set when Nadal finally broke Federer to serve for the match. Some would say that's bad tennis, I say it's a case of two great players doing exactly what they are supposed to do: hold serve.
The mental toughness of Federer and Nadal may be the untold story from the final. I thought the first set was going to tell the story of the match because my feeling was that, after what happened in France, no one needed a first set victory more than Federer did yesterday. Losing the first set was bad, but blowing a 4-1 lead in the second to fall behind 0-2 left little doubt that there was going to be a new Wimbledon champion and that the match was going to end in another serious disappointment for Federer and the fans. As was once said by former Houston Rockets coach Rudy Tomjanovich, "Never underestimate the heart of a champion." Federer fought back again and again, dodging two match point's in the fourth set tiebreak to force a fifth set, setting the stage for one of the greatest finishes in sports history.
Now to Nadal. How many people out there thought the 22-year old Spanish phenom had any shot to win after his forehand shot went long at 9-8, clinching the fourth set tiebreak for Federer and erasing his once comfy two set lead? Anybody? You in the back with your hand up, you're lying. Nadal has been thought of as the great clay court player of this era and nothing more and, despite his successes against Federer, had yet to beat him on grass. Last year's Wimbledon final went five sets and Nadal took the momentum into the final stanza by winning the fourth. He was blown out 6-2 then and the stage was set for another heartbreaking result for Nadal. Yet one service hold and clutch shot after another, the Rat fink never folded, and he finally captured the championship that seemed so certain to be his hours before.
The question now is whether or not Nadal unseats Federer's four year run as the world's No. 1 player. I'm not sure how the whole point system works in tennis, but I don't see how he isn't the top seed when the U.S. Open rolls around in late-August. He has won two of the three Grand Slams and beaten the current No. 1 in both finals. Regardless of what the points say, Nadal has earned the title of "World's Best Player" and should hold onto it until he is unseated by Federer or another challenger.
John McEnroe, who knows great tennis when he sees it, said that Sunday's final in England was the best in the long, storied history of the game. I would agree with that, but I'll take it a step further. The 2008 Wimbledon final was one of the great events in sports history and it will be very hard for the field in Flushing Meadows to live up to. The Federer-Nadal rivalry is the finest in sports at the moment (sorry Yanks and Sox fans) and the hope here is that they meet again eight weeks from now in the Open final to cap what has been a year to remember in tennis.
DTM
The so-called experts began questioning Federer's game and his spot in history following that debacle, but let's make one thing clear after his 4-6, 4-6, 7-6 (5), 7-6 (8), 7-9 defeat on his home turf: his legacy is intact and when all is said and done, he will still go down as the best player in tennis history. In 2008 he has won two events, lost in the Australian Open semifinals to eventual-champion Novak Djokovic, and lost the French Open and Wimbledon final to Nadal. Just about every player on tour not named Roger Federer would kill to accomplish that much in a career, let alone a single year. As for yesterday's performance, aside from converting just one of 13 break chances, there isn't much more to dissect about Federer's play. In fact, that may have been one of the best matches he has ever played considering his opponent, the pesky rain delays and the stage itself. The saddest part about the final was that it had to end with a loser in a match that truly didn't deserve one.
Casual sports fans will say that you can turn on the last two minutes of a football or basketball game and that's all you need to see because ultimately everything else leading up to the last moment means nothing, which is absurd because there wouldn't be a last two minutes without the ones before them. The casual idiots that stand by that assertion would have no ground to stand on when talking about Sunday's final. Every point from game one to game 62 was played with the intensity of championship point and each player had to play it that way because they knew it was unlikely the other was going to make that fatal mistake that completely swung the momentum one way or the other. There were no service breaks from the fourth game of the second set up until the 15th game of the final set when Nadal finally broke Federer to serve for the match. Some would say that's bad tennis, I say it's a case of two great players doing exactly what they are supposed to do: hold serve.
The mental toughness of Federer and Nadal may be the untold story from the final. I thought the first set was going to tell the story of the match because my feeling was that, after what happened in France, no one needed a first set victory more than Federer did yesterday. Losing the first set was bad, but blowing a 4-1 lead in the second to fall behind 0-2 left little doubt that there was going to be a new Wimbledon champion and that the match was going to end in another serious disappointment for Federer and the fans. As was once said by former Houston Rockets coach Rudy Tomjanovich, "Never underestimate the heart of a champion." Federer fought back again and again, dodging two match point's in the fourth set tiebreak to force a fifth set, setting the stage for one of the greatest finishes in sports history.
Now to Nadal. How many people out there thought the 22-year old Spanish phenom had any shot to win after his forehand shot went long at 9-8, clinching the fourth set tiebreak for Federer and erasing his once comfy two set lead? Anybody? You in the back with your hand up, you're lying. Nadal has been thought of as the great clay court player of this era and nothing more and, despite his successes against Federer, had yet to beat him on grass. Last year's Wimbledon final went five sets and Nadal took the momentum into the final stanza by winning the fourth. He was blown out 6-2 then and the stage was set for another heartbreaking result for Nadal. Yet one service hold and clutch shot after another, the Rat fink never folded, and he finally captured the championship that seemed so certain to be his hours before.
The question now is whether or not Nadal unseats Federer's four year run as the world's No. 1 player. I'm not sure how the whole point system works in tennis, but I don't see how he isn't the top seed when the U.S. Open rolls around in late-August. He has won two of the three Grand Slams and beaten the current No. 1 in both finals. Regardless of what the points say, Nadal has earned the title of "World's Best Player" and should hold onto it until he is unseated by Federer or another challenger.
John McEnroe, who knows great tennis when he sees it, said that Sunday's final in England was the best in the long, storied history of the game. I would agree with that, but I'll take it a step further. The 2008 Wimbledon final was one of the great events in sports history and it will be very hard for the field in Flushing Meadows to live up to. The Federer-Nadal rivalry is the finest in sports at the moment (sorry Yanks and Sox fans) and the hope here is that they meet again eight weeks from now in the Open final to cap what has been a year to remember in tennis.
DTM
Friday, June 27, 2008
Impressions From "Boring" 2008 NBA Draft
One word has been used to describe last night's NBA Draft: boring. Newsflash: every professional sports league's draft is boring and over analyzed, yet the audience increases by the millions with each passing year. On the contrary, while it may have been dull this draft at least kept your attention throughout as there were 16 deals made during the draft or in the hours thereafter. I'll have to get out my book but that has to be some sort of record for the NBA. If not, the Portland Trailblazers had to have set a new landmark by swinging five of the 16. Who knows how any of the 60 players selected are going to pan out for the teams that selected them, but here's what I think of the all the action from Thursday night and a few guesses as to what we may be saying about the 2008 class 5-7 years down the line.
Best draft: New Jersey Nets. The Nets gave fans a reason to believe in the organization again after a disastrous 2007-08 season. The early trade of Richard Jefferson to Milwaukee for Yi Jianlian and Bobby Simmons looks confusing on the surface but it will rid them of RJ's ridiculous contract and give them cap space for the LeBron sweepstakes in 2010. As for their draft night selections, the Nets haven't had a decent big since Kenyon Martin in 2004 and they landed two in this draft in Stanford's Brooks Lopez and California's Ryan Anderson. In the past few years New Jersey has wasted time and money on bigs like Shawn Williams and Josh Boone, but make no mistake, these two will solidify the pivot very soon if not next season. Lopez and Anderson combined for 40 points, 19 rebounds and three blocks per game last season in the Pac-10 which, in my opinion, was the strongest conference in college basketball. I'm looking forward to watching this combination develop. They also made a great value pick at No. 40 with Memphis wing Chris Douglas-Roberts, a player most scouts saw as a late first rounder.
Worst draft: Seattle Sonics. I was going to say the Indiana Pacers, but they're going to get beaten up again here shortly so I figured I'd give it a deeper look and this is what I came up with. The Sonics needed a draft similar to the one the Nets had to give their fans in whatever city they play in next year some hope. Instead they draft Russell Westbrook from UCLA with the fourth pick. He projects as a point and Seattle already has two young ones in Luke Ridnour and Earl Watson. I know those names don't scare you, but why not have them as holdovers for another season and draft Brooks Lopez to anchor the middle where they currently have, uh, no one (sorry Nick Collison). Or draft D.J. Augustine or Jerryd Bayless. Or trade the picks for a veteran to help Kevin Durant. Do anything but take Westbrook at four. They noticed their need for a center a bit late because they drafted a big with their last four selections (Serge Ibaka-24, DJ White- 29, DeVon Hardin- 50, Sasha Kaun- 56). I'm confused as to what the Sonics strategy was and in a few years they will be too.
Biggest Steal: Most everybody will say Kansas' Darrell Arthur, but I'm going to go with Ohio State's Kosta Koufos. Koufos somehow landed in Utah's lap at 23 after most scouts saw his name coming off the board in the mid-late teens. When picking that late in the first round, general managers are looking for players with the potential to help their team in the future, but not so much the upcoming season. Koufos is perfect for Jerry Sloan's offense that needs big men with range to succeed. He shot 51 percent from the floor and 35 percent from deep last year so this is a player that could potentially step in right away and help the Jazz. Mehmet Okur could be the perfect mentor to Koufos early on and I see Koufos developing into a better version of Okur. He's fairly athletic for someone who is 7-1 and he blocked just under two shots per game last year in Columbus so the defensive potential is there as well.
Biggest Reach: Sacramento taking Rider PF Jason Thompson at No. 12. Thompson was projected as a late-first/early-second round pick and was taken in the lottery by Sactown. What? LSU's Anthony Randolph, who I never knew played a minute last year but everyone seems to be so high on, was still on the board as was Robin Lopez and Marreese Speights from Florida. ESPN's Chad Ford said Thompson is solid and nothing more and has reached his ceiling, meaning what you see now is what you're going to get. He averaged 20 points, 13 rebounds and almost three blocks last season, but there is some question whether his destruction of the MAAC will translate to the NBA. I would have to agree that the beasts of the blocks in the Western Conference are a bit tougher to deal with then whatever LeMoyne was throwing at him the past four years, so add me to the group of second guessers.
What were they thinking? Pick: The Charlotte Bobcats selecting D.J. Augustine with the ninth pick. The Bobcats could have very easily landed in the "Worst Draft" category, but drafting the Bob Cousy Award winner, given to the best point guard in college basketball, isn't necessarily a bad thing. I guess Micheal Jordan could chalk this up as taking the best player available rather than taking the biggest need, but I'm not buying it. Jordan was blessed when Brooks Lopez fell to nine and I bet you that even his ex-wife thought he wouldn't screw up and pass on him. Lo and behold, he did, but that's okay because M.J. made it clear long before Thursday night that he has no idea when it comes to talent evaluation (Adam Morrison over Brandon Roy and of course the whole Kwame Brown fiasco), which is weird based on that story that he saw Michael Finley becoming an NBA star when he met him in middle school. I always thought that story was a lie, too. Anyway, the BobJohnsonCats have Raymond Felton at point guard and Nazr Mohammad and Ryan Hollins playing next to Emeka Okafor. Doesn't that mean that the better choice would have been taking Lopez, who would have fit in perfectly next to the defensive minded, glass-eating Okafor? Well, hey, at least they paid millions to move up to No. 20 to take Alex Ajinca to make up for the mistake. Awful, Michael.
Best Deal/Worst Deal: Portland getting the rights to Jerryd Bayless and Ike Diogu from Indiana and sending them the rights to Brandon Rush and Jarrett Jack. Lucky for you this is a package deal which means less time you have to spend reading this garbage. Since I'm an optimist, let's start with the good part. The Blazers landed Bayless who, in my mind, is the best point guard in this draft to add to their bundle of young talent and potential all-stars. Diogu is no slouch either as he possesses strength, decent range and the ability to finish down low. I believe firmly that if Portland can keep its young core intact, and that will be a big if when the rookie contracts expire, they will be champions within the next five years and Bayless will be the one at the controls. His averages of 20 points and four assists at Arizona last year should eventually translate to the NBA because this kid has the full arsenal offensively and the weapons around him to create easy opportunities for. This also allows Brandon Roy to play off the ball full-time and not worry so much about being the distributer. Then throw in the twin towers of this era in Greg Oden and LaMarcus Aldridge and you have one scary monster growing in the Northwest.
On the flip side, the Indiana Pacers (sigh). This has nothing to do with this particular deal but you kick off draft day by getting rid of Jermaine O'Neal for a pair of old high tops and a wet towel, then you go and do this. Everyone knows and understands they are trying to rebuild, but you don't do that by throwing away your best asset. I also would like an explanation as to why Larry Bird dealt Bayless who, again, could turn into one of the great point guards of this generation for Jarrett Jack. Starting the rebuilding process by drafting a potentially great point guard is a great way to start, but trading one away for a back-up is very bad. The problem is that Jack will be Indiana's starter because all indications point to the organization buying out Jamaal Tinsley's contract sometime in the near future, leaving them with Jack and Travis Diener to run the offense. Huh? This rebuilding project looks to be one that is very long and drawn out and a lot of that has to do with this stumper. If you weren't sure as to why I wanted to nail the Pacers for having the worst draft, you may now have a better idea.
Second rounder most likely to achieve star status: Billy Walker, Kansas State, pick No. 47 by Boston. Second round picks generally end up becoming role players in the NBA or star players overseas, but rarely do they rise to reach the top flight of NBA players. Gilbert Arenas, Monta Ellis, Carlos Boozer, Rashard Lewis and Stephen Jackson are among the few that have and if someone from the class of 2008 is going to, it most likely will be Walker. Scouts say he could put Vince Carter's highlight reels to shame and would have been a lottery pick last year had he not injured his ACL. That may be the only thing that keeps Walker from becoming the player many believed he would and I'm going to go out on a limb and say he has a career comparable to the Mavericks Josh Howard. He averaged 16 and six playing next to Michael Beasley at KSU last year and it's hard to imagine him not having the same production on the NBA level if he can stay healthy. The talent is obviously there and him slipping to Boston late in the second may be a blessing in disguise because he will have no pressure to perform for the next year or two. If he uses that time to get his knees right, get his weight down and develop his game to go along with his freakish athletic ability, Walker will have the other 29 GM's wishing they had taken a chance. Mark it down.
Best Player: Derrick Rose, Memphis. I know, I know, I'm taking a real chance by saying the No. 1 pick will be the best player from this year's class. Well actually I may be. Go back 10 years to the 1998 draft, one that is now fair to evaluate. The Clippers took Michael Olowokandi with the first pick. The best player from that class? Paul Pierce, selected No. 10 by Boston. How about the 2001 class? Michael Jordan and the Washington Wizards had the first pick and took (gulp) Kwame Brown. The best player from '01, Gilbert Arenas, was taken 31 players later by Golden State. The point I'm trying to make is that No. 1 is far from a sure thing, but to me, Rose is about as sure as they come. The thing I love already is his situation. One reason many top picks don't pan out is because they get stuck on horrible teams and can't handle the burden of carrying a city. Rose landed in Chicago on a team that was projected by yours truly, and many professionals I might add, to win the Eastern Conference about eight months ago. That of course was an awful prediction, but there is much more talent on the Bulls roster than there is on most teams with the first pick. As of today he'll be playing with guys like Ben Gordon, Joakim Noah and Luol Deng, but my guess is that John Paxson will package Gordon and others to pick up a quality veteran that can help better the situation right away. Then there is Rose's game. He's got the complete package and all the tools to be just as special as Chris Paul or Deron Williams have recently become for their teams. Most importantly his college coach, John Calipari, said Rose has the desire to be the best point guard to ever play the game. You don't hear that type of endorsement from college coaches as often as you used to, but Calipari said it and meant it. A kid with his talent and any desire at all has to be a sure bet to become the best player from the 2008 draft class and maybe even more.
Biggest Bust: Anthony Randolph, LSU. I was going to go with Kevin Love here, but the more I watch his highlights and look at his numbers the more I think he will become nothing less than Emeka Okafor statistically. Any player selected in the lottery that does not pan out should be considered a bust and Randolph rounded out the lottery. I swear on everything holy that I had never heard of him until about a week ago and that says something because I follow college basketball religiously. Watching ESPN's clips of Randolph and looking at his numbers, I think of one player: Stromile Swift. Same build, same school, same raw ability that will ultimately amount to nothing. He averaged 16 points, eight rebounds and two blocks. Nice numbers, but he also has the shooting percentage of a shooting guard except a majority of his attempts come from about 8-10 feet closer. He also averages a Jason Kidd-like three turnovers per game despite the fact that he doesn't touch the ball anywhere near as much as a point guard does. Randolph put up solid numbers on a bad team, just like Swift. He is 6-10 and all of 197 lbs. I'm 6-1/185, do the math. The two things he has going for him that Swift didn't is he is going to Golden State, not Memphis, and he was the 14th pick, not the second. His draft profile compared him to Brandan Wright, who was the eighth pick in last year's draft and Randolph's new teammate. At this point, that's not a bad projection because, like Wright, the Warriors have no idea what they are getting in Randolph. But if I had to guess I would say he is the bust of 2008.
DTM
Best draft: New Jersey Nets. The Nets gave fans a reason to believe in the organization again after a disastrous 2007-08 season. The early trade of Richard Jefferson to Milwaukee for Yi Jianlian and Bobby Simmons looks confusing on the surface but it will rid them of RJ's ridiculous contract and give them cap space for the LeBron sweepstakes in 2010. As for their draft night selections, the Nets haven't had a decent big since Kenyon Martin in 2004 and they landed two in this draft in Stanford's Brooks Lopez and California's Ryan Anderson. In the past few years New Jersey has wasted time and money on bigs like Shawn Williams and Josh Boone, but make no mistake, these two will solidify the pivot very soon if not next season. Lopez and Anderson combined for 40 points, 19 rebounds and three blocks per game last season in the Pac-10 which, in my opinion, was the strongest conference in college basketball. I'm looking forward to watching this combination develop. They also made a great value pick at No. 40 with Memphis wing Chris Douglas-Roberts, a player most scouts saw as a late first rounder.
Worst draft: Seattle Sonics. I was going to say the Indiana Pacers, but they're going to get beaten up again here shortly so I figured I'd give it a deeper look and this is what I came up with. The Sonics needed a draft similar to the one the Nets had to give their fans in whatever city they play in next year some hope. Instead they draft Russell Westbrook from UCLA with the fourth pick. He projects as a point and Seattle already has two young ones in Luke Ridnour and Earl Watson. I know those names don't scare you, but why not have them as holdovers for another season and draft Brooks Lopez to anchor the middle where they currently have, uh, no one (sorry Nick Collison). Or draft D.J. Augustine or Jerryd Bayless. Or trade the picks for a veteran to help Kevin Durant. Do anything but take Westbrook at four. They noticed their need for a center a bit late because they drafted a big with their last four selections (Serge Ibaka-24, DJ White- 29, DeVon Hardin- 50, Sasha Kaun- 56). I'm confused as to what the Sonics strategy was and in a few years they will be too.
Biggest Steal: Most everybody will say Kansas' Darrell Arthur, but I'm going to go with Ohio State's Kosta Koufos. Koufos somehow landed in Utah's lap at 23 after most scouts saw his name coming off the board in the mid-late teens. When picking that late in the first round, general managers are looking for players with the potential to help their team in the future, but not so much the upcoming season. Koufos is perfect for Jerry Sloan's offense that needs big men with range to succeed. He shot 51 percent from the floor and 35 percent from deep last year so this is a player that could potentially step in right away and help the Jazz. Mehmet Okur could be the perfect mentor to Koufos early on and I see Koufos developing into a better version of Okur. He's fairly athletic for someone who is 7-1 and he blocked just under two shots per game last year in Columbus so the defensive potential is there as well.
Biggest Reach: Sacramento taking Rider PF Jason Thompson at No. 12. Thompson was projected as a late-first/early-second round pick and was taken in the lottery by Sactown. What? LSU's Anthony Randolph, who I never knew played a minute last year but everyone seems to be so high on, was still on the board as was Robin Lopez and Marreese Speights from Florida. ESPN's Chad Ford said Thompson is solid and nothing more and has reached his ceiling, meaning what you see now is what you're going to get. He averaged 20 points, 13 rebounds and almost three blocks last season, but there is some question whether his destruction of the MAAC will translate to the NBA. I would have to agree that the beasts of the blocks in the Western Conference are a bit tougher to deal with then whatever LeMoyne was throwing at him the past four years, so add me to the group of second guessers.
What were they thinking? Pick: The Charlotte Bobcats selecting D.J. Augustine with the ninth pick. The Bobcats could have very easily landed in the "Worst Draft" category, but drafting the Bob Cousy Award winner, given to the best point guard in college basketball, isn't necessarily a bad thing. I guess Micheal Jordan could chalk this up as taking the best player available rather than taking the biggest need, but I'm not buying it. Jordan was blessed when Brooks Lopez fell to nine and I bet you that even his ex-wife thought he wouldn't screw up and pass on him. Lo and behold, he did, but that's okay because M.J. made it clear long before Thursday night that he has no idea when it comes to talent evaluation (Adam Morrison over Brandon Roy and of course the whole Kwame Brown fiasco), which is weird based on that story that he saw Michael Finley becoming an NBA star when he met him in middle school. I always thought that story was a lie, too. Anyway, the BobJohnsonCats have Raymond Felton at point guard and Nazr Mohammad and Ryan Hollins playing next to Emeka Okafor. Doesn't that mean that the better choice would have been taking Lopez, who would have fit in perfectly next to the defensive minded, glass-eating Okafor? Well, hey, at least they paid millions to move up to No. 20 to take Alex Ajinca to make up for the mistake. Awful, Michael.
Best Deal/Worst Deal: Portland getting the rights to Jerryd Bayless and Ike Diogu from Indiana and sending them the rights to Brandon Rush and Jarrett Jack. Lucky for you this is a package deal which means less time you have to spend reading this garbage. Since I'm an optimist, let's start with the good part. The Blazers landed Bayless who, in my mind, is the best point guard in this draft to add to their bundle of young talent and potential all-stars. Diogu is no slouch either as he possesses strength, decent range and the ability to finish down low. I believe firmly that if Portland can keep its young core intact, and that will be a big if when the rookie contracts expire, they will be champions within the next five years and Bayless will be the one at the controls. His averages of 20 points and four assists at Arizona last year should eventually translate to the NBA because this kid has the full arsenal offensively and the weapons around him to create easy opportunities for. This also allows Brandon Roy to play off the ball full-time and not worry so much about being the distributer. Then throw in the twin towers of this era in Greg Oden and LaMarcus Aldridge and you have one scary monster growing in the Northwest.
On the flip side, the Indiana Pacers (sigh). This has nothing to do with this particular deal but you kick off draft day by getting rid of Jermaine O'Neal for a pair of old high tops and a wet towel, then you go and do this. Everyone knows and understands they are trying to rebuild, but you don't do that by throwing away your best asset. I also would like an explanation as to why Larry Bird dealt Bayless who, again, could turn into one of the great point guards of this generation for Jarrett Jack. Starting the rebuilding process by drafting a potentially great point guard is a great way to start, but trading one away for a back-up is very bad. The problem is that Jack will be Indiana's starter because all indications point to the organization buying out Jamaal Tinsley's contract sometime in the near future, leaving them with Jack and Travis Diener to run the offense. Huh? This rebuilding project looks to be one that is very long and drawn out and a lot of that has to do with this stumper. If you weren't sure as to why I wanted to nail the Pacers for having the worst draft, you may now have a better idea.
Second rounder most likely to achieve star status: Billy Walker, Kansas State, pick No. 47 by Boston. Second round picks generally end up becoming role players in the NBA or star players overseas, but rarely do they rise to reach the top flight of NBA players. Gilbert Arenas, Monta Ellis, Carlos Boozer, Rashard Lewis and Stephen Jackson are among the few that have and if someone from the class of 2008 is going to, it most likely will be Walker. Scouts say he could put Vince Carter's highlight reels to shame and would have been a lottery pick last year had he not injured his ACL. That may be the only thing that keeps Walker from becoming the player many believed he would and I'm going to go out on a limb and say he has a career comparable to the Mavericks Josh Howard. He averaged 16 and six playing next to Michael Beasley at KSU last year and it's hard to imagine him not having the same production on the NBA level if he can stay healthy. The talent is obviously there and him slipping to Boston late in the second may be a blessing in disguise because he will have no pressure to perform for the next year or two. If he uses that time to get his knees right, get his weight down and develop his game to go along with his freakish athletic ability, Walker will have the other 29 GM's wishing they had taken a chance. Mark it down.
Best Player: Derrick Rose, Memphis. I know, I know, I'm taking a real chance by saying the No. 1 pick will be the best player from this year's class. Well actually I may be. Go back 10 years to the 1998 draft, one that is now fair to evaluate. The Clippers took Michael Olowokandi with the first pick. The best player from that class? Paul Pierce, selected No. 10 by Boston. How about the 2001 class? Michael Jordan and the Washington Wizards had the first pick and took (gulp) Kwame Brown. The best player from '01, Gilbert Arenas, was taken 31 players later by Golden State. The point I'm trying to make is that No. 1 is far from a sure thing, but to me, Rose is about as sure as they come. The thing I love already is his situation. One reason many top picks don't pan out is because they get stuck on horrible teams and can't handle the burden of carrying a city. Rose landed in Chicago on a team that was projected by yours truly, and many professionals I might add, to win the Eastern Conference about eight months ago. That of course was an awful prediction, but there is much more talent on the Bulls roster than there is on most teams with the first pick. As of today he'll be playing with guys like Ben Gordon, Joakim Noah and Luol Deng, but my guess is that John Paxson will package Gordon and others to pick up a quality veteran that can help better the situation right away. Then there is Rose's game. He's got the complete package and all the tools to be just as special as Chris Paul or Deron Williams have recently become for their teams. Most importantly his college coach, John Calipari, said Rose has the desire to be the best point guard to ever play the game. You don't hear that type of endorsement from college coaches as often as you used to, but Calipari said it and meant it. A kid with his talent and any desire at all has to be a sure bet to become the best player from the 2008 draft class and maybe even more.
Biggest Bust: Anthony Randolph, LSU. I was going to go with Kevin Love here, but the more I watch his highlights and look at his numbers the more I think he will become nothing less than Emeka Okafor statistically. Any player selected in the lottery that does not pan out should be considered a bust and Randolph rounded out the lottery. I swear on everything holy that I had never heard of him until about a week ago and that says something because I follow college basketball religiously. Watching ESPN's clips of Randolph and looking at his numbers, I think of one player: Stromile Swift. Same build, same school, same raw ability that will ultimately amount to nothing. He averaged 16 points, eight rebounds and two blocks. Nice numbers, but he also has the shooting percentage of a shooting guard except a majority of his attempts come from about 8-10 feet closer. He also averages a Jason Kidd-like three turnovers per game despite the fact that he doesn't touch the ball anywhere near as much as a point guard does. Randolph put up solid numbers on a bad team, just like Swift. He is 6-10 and all of 197 lbs. I'm 6-1/185, do the math. The two things he has going for him that Swift didn't is he is going to Golden State, not Memphis, and he was the 14th pick, not the second. His draft profile compared him to Brandan Wright, who was the eighth pick in last year's draft and Randolph's new teammate. At this point, that's not a bad projection because, like Wright, the Warriors have no idea what they are getting in Randolph. But if I had to guess I would say he is the bust of 2008.
DTM
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Thats A Wrap: C's Blast La La's for Banner No. 17
Even as we speak, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen have to be asking themselves, 'how did I get here?' Last year at this time they watched from the couch in three different cities as the Spurs won their fourth title in nine years while, between them, they had zero finals appearances. Somehow, someway they found themselves in the same area code by the end of August and 10 months later had finally reached the pinnacle of professional basketball after a 131-92 drubbing of the Los Angeles Lakers.
As wrong as it is, all of the great ones need a championship to validate their careers. Speaking with Michelle Tafoya minutes after the victory had become official an exasperated Garnett said repeatedly, "What can you say now? I'm certified." What he meant was his place in basketball history is secure and all of his detractors have nothing left to say. The same now goes for Pierce and Allen who, before this season, were known as the selfish player who played no defense and the Lord of the Jumper, respectively. Both flashed their whole package in the finals and for all Garnett was in the clincher (with that monster 26-point, 12-rebound, 3-block performance I had forecasted yesterday) it was the two guards who made a majority of the plays down the stretch for the C's. Pierce took home the MVP, but it very easily could have (and in my opinion should have) gone to Allen who set an NBA finals record with 22 three-pointers made in the series.
I hate admitting when I am wrong, but boy was I totally off base with regards to these Celtics. And not just in the Eastern semi's when I said LeBron would take over Game 7 in Boston or in the finals which I predicted the Lakers to win in 6, but from the very beginning. If you go back to my NBA predictions you'll see that I picked the Toronto Raptors to win the Atlantic Division and Boston finishing as the five seed. What?! Well maybe I'm not as certified for this as I once thought.
Boston was the best team in the NBA from November 1-June 17 because they had three unselfish superstars yearning for their first championship, an extremely underrated coach in Doc Rivers that stressed defense, and a collection of role players who went above and beyond what I felt they were capable of. One of the reasons I was so skeptical about the C's was because of everyone surrounding the "Big 3." Rajon Rondo came into the season as a young point guard who couldn't shoot and grew into the perfect fit for the team. He capped off his sophmore campaign with a 21-point, 8-assist and 6-steal performance, one so fine that Phil Jackson said afterwords was the difference in the ballgame. Kendrick Perkins is one of the better post defenders and rebounders in the NBA and didn't need to score so he too was a perfect fit. But the biggest shock was the play of James Posey, Eddie House and P.J. Brown, especially in the Finals. All three played great defense, got to loose balls, hit timely shots and are just as much a reason the Celtics are champions today as the "Big 3." The beauty of their title run, in case you hadn't already noticed, is that it was a total team effort. In a league that promotes individual stars, the 2007-08 Boston Celtics showed what can be accomplished when players work together and stars sacrifice their games for the betterment of the team.
One last thought from last night. If anyone still thinks athletes don't care about the sports they play, go back and watch Garnett's reaction after the game. He was running around the floor at TD Banknorth Garden screaming, crying, smiling, kissing the leprechaun and hugging everyone- including NBA legend Bill Russell- that was in plain view. He and Pierce both were still out of breath as they spoke to the media roughly 30 minutes after the win. If that didn't inspire ringless superstars sitting where these two were at this time last year then maybe nothing will. Money is great, but you get the impression from these players that the grind of it all isn't worth it without the winning.
Another NBA season in the books, one that will go down as one of the best in league history. I hate when it's over, but after going through a few scenarios that could see more superstars landing in different cities similar to the way Allen and Garnett did last summer, next season could end up being even better. Hopefully next June we'll be discussing Houston Rockets tandem Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming or Allen Iverson, wherever he may be, asking themselves "how did I get here?" But don't be surprised if the conversation centers around a Celtics repeat.
DTM
(Many of you may be wondering why Kobe Bryant's name didn't pop up once in this ramble. I felt that he and the Lakers weren't deserving of the space after losing by 40 and allowing 131 points in an elimination game in the NBA Finals. Note to Kobe: Jordan would have never allowed that, but it's okay because you'll never be Jordan.)
As wrong as it is, all of the great ones need a championship to validate their careers. Speaking with Michelle Tafoya minutes after the victory had become official an exasperated Garnett said repeatedly, "What can you say now? I'm certified." What he meant was his place in basketball history is secure and all of his detractors have nothing left to say. The same now goes for Pierce and Allen who, before this season, were known as the selfish player who played no defense and the Lord of the Jumper, respectively. Both flashed their whole package in the finals and for all Garnett was in the clincher (with that monster 26-point, 12-rebound, 3-block performance I had forecasted yesterday) it was the two guards who made a majority of the plays down the stretch for the C's. Pierce took home the MVP, but it very easily could have (and in my opinion should have) gone to Allen who set an NBA finals record with 22 three-pointers made in the series.
I hate admitting when I am wrong, but boy was I totally off base with regards to these Celtics. And not just in the Eastern semi's when I said LeBron would take over Game 7 in Boston or in the finals which I predicted the Lakers to win in 6, but from the very beginning. If you go back to my NBA predictions you'll see that I picked the Toronto Raptors to win the Atlantic Division and Boston finishing as the five seed. What?! Well maybe I'm not as certified for this as I once thought.
Boston was the best team in the NBA from November 1-June 17 because they had three unselfish superstars yearning for their first championship, an extremely underrated coach in Doc Rivers that stressed defense, and a collection of role players who went above and beyond what I felt they were capable of. One of the reasons I was so skeptical about the C's was because of everyone surrounding the "Big 3." Rajon Rondo came into the season as a young point guard who couldn't shoot and grew into the perfect fit for the team. He capped off his sophmore campaign with a 21-point, 8-assist and 6-steal performance, one so fine that Phil Jackson said afterwords was the difference in the ballgame. Kendrick Perkins is one of the better post defenders and rebounders in the NBA and didn't need to score so he too was a perfect fit. But the biggest shock was the play of James Posey, Eddie House and P.J. Brown, especially in the Finals. All three played great defense, got to loose balls, hit timely shots and are just as much a reason the Celtics are champions today as the "Big 3." The beauty of their title run, in case you hadn't already noticed, is that it was a total team effort. In a league that promotes individual stars, the 2007-08 Boston Celtics showed what can be accomplished when players work together and stars sacrifice their games for the betterment of the team.
One last thought from last night. If anyone still thinks athletes don't care about the sports they play, go back and watch Garnett's reaction after the game. He was running around the floor at TD Banknorth Garden screaming, crying, smiling, kissing the leprechaun and hugging everyone- including NBA legend Bill Russell- that was in plain view. He and Pierce both were still out of breath as they spoke to the media roughly 30 minutes after the win. If that didn't inspire ringless superstars sitting where these two were at this time last year then maybe nothing will. Money is great, but you get the impression from these players that the grind of it all isn't worth it without the winning.
Another NBA season in the books, one that will go down as one of the best in league history. I hate when it's over, but after going through a few scenarios that could see more superstars landing in different cities similar to the way Allen and Garnett did last summer, next season could end up being even better. Hopefully next June we'll be discussing Houston Rockets tandem Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming or Allen Iverson, wherever he may be, asking themselves "how did I get here?" But don't be surprised if the conversation centers around a Celtics repeat.
DTM
(Many of you may be wondering why Kobe Bryant's name didn't pop up once in this ramble. I felt that he and the Lakers weren't deserving of the space after losing by 40 and allowing 131 points in an elimination game in the NBA Finals. Note to Kobe: Jordan would have never allowed that, but it's okay because you'll never be Jordan.)
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Celtics Must Have 6th Sense
Procrastinating is never a good idea. Putting off paying the bills, filing your taxes or waiting to start a 20-page thesis paper the night before it's due are all situations that generally end badly for the procrastinator. The same applies in the sporting world, in this case the NBA Finals, where the Boston Celtics are serving Championship Point #2 at the TD Banknorth Garden tonight. So that begs the question to Doc, KG and Co.: why put off 'til Thursday what you can finish tonight?
A Game 6 slip up by the home team would not be the end of the world, but it would be a terrible reversal of fortunes that may spell doom. Not only would the Celtics be on the brink of becoming the the first team in NBA Finals history to blow a 3-1 series lead, but they would have to stop Kobe Bryant for the last 48 minutes of the 2007-08 NBA season, with his fourth NBA championship staring him right in the face, to avoid doing so. The thought makes the men in green shake and the fans sweat. As much as you may hate Bryant and love the lovable "Big 3," I know about 80 percent of the country would put their money on No. 24 in a deciding Game 7 in Boston, L.A., Beijing, wherever. That's why the Celtics must be driven to end this now while they're ahead.
Boston has not lacked the killer instinct in this series, evidenced by their 24-point rally in Game 4 and their near comeback from 20 down in Game 5. They talked about finishing the series in L.A and nearly did just that, so fans and observers should not worry that the C's will come out and lay an egg tonight because they have a mere one game edge and the comfort of hosting a potential winner-takes-all game on Thursday. They want to finish it tonight, whether or not they can is a whole 'nother question.
This has been one of the strangest Finals in recent years, mostly because both teams have a legitimate shot at winning it all, which has not been the case lately (see the New Jersey Nets in '02 and '03 and the LeBroneliers last year), but also because both teams have absolutely dominated each game at different times. The past three games have seen one team go up by 20+ points, only to lose the lead entirely or have to come up with a clutch shot or a big stop to hang on for dear life. What's also very odd is how quiet the series' two biggest superstars, Bryant and Kevin Garnett, have been for the most part. The Celtics defense has been incredible on Bryant and his supporting cast has mostly failed him through the first five games, but it's amazing how soft Garnett has played against one of the league's finest softies in Pau Gasol.
KG is similar to Tim Duncan in that he can score 20 and grab 15 rebounds in his sleep, but there are times where those numbers are bigger than his actual impact on the game. The other 29 teams in the NBA would love to have that problem, but aren't you just waiting for Garnett to have a dominating 33-point, 7-rebound, 3-block performance in this series as he did in the pivitol Game 5 against the Pistons? It may come tonight. Check that, it must come tonight. This is exactly why Boston capped off their amazing summer by trading for the Big Ticket- so he would bring his intensity and insane ability to the floor in the biggest game of the season and deliver the city its 17th banner. If this sleeping giant doesn't come alive tonight, you can bet that the other one will when it matters most.
Kobe needs this series to cement his legacy; he knows it, Phil Jackson knows it, you and I know it and Kobe knows that all of the above know it. Picture the Lakers coming back from 3-1 down and winning the last two games in Boston, with No. 24 going off for 35 in Game 7 and winning Finals MVP. MJ never did it and there isn't an athlete in professional sports that is as obsessed with one-upping a legend as much as Bryant is with Jordan. He has his chance to do it and soak in every television, radio and print analyst anointing him as the best that ever lived for at least a week until the hype dies down and reality sets back in. The scary thing is, he can do it and make it look easy, which is why it is imperative Boston seals the deal tonight.
For tonight I'm sticking with the C's, but beyond that... well, not so much. Kobe won't be denied in a Game 7 so, Boston, finish your work tonight or, like so many others, you could face the consequences of procrastination.
DTM
A Game 6 slip up by the home team would not be the end of the world, but it would be a terrible reversal of fortunes that may spell doom. Not only would the Celtics be on the brink of becoming the the first team in NBA Finals history to blow a 3-1 series lead, but they would have to stop Kobe Bryant for the last 48 minutes of the 2007-08 NBA season, with his fourth NBA championship staring him right in the face, to avoid doing so. The thought makes the men in green shake and the fans sweat. As much as you may hate Bryant and love the lovable "Big 3," I know about 80 percent of the country would put their money on No. 24 in a deciding Game 7 in Boston, L.A., Beijing, wherever. That's why the Celtics must be driven to end this now while they're ahead.
Boston has not lacked the killer instinct in this series, evidenced by their 24-point rally in Game 4 and their near comeback from 20 down in Game 5. They talked about finishing the series in L.A and nearly did just that, so fans and observers should not worry that the C's will come out and lay an egg tonight because they have a mere one game edge and the comfort of hosting a potential winner-takes-all game on Thursday. They want to finish it tonight, whether or not they can is a whole 'nother question.
This has been one of the strangest Finals in recent years, mostly because both teams have a legitimate shot at winning it all, which has not been the case lately (see the New Jersey Nets in '02 and '03 and the LeBroneliers last year), but also because both teams have absolutely dominated each game at different times. The past three games have seen one team go up by 20+ points, only to lose the lead entirely or have to come up with a clutch shot or a big stop to hang on for dear life. What's also very odd is how quiet the series' two biggest superstars, Bryant and Kevin Garnett, have been for the most part. The Celtics defense has been incredible on Bryant and his supporting cast has mostly failed him through the first five games, but it's amazing how soft Garnett has played against one of the league's finest softies in Pau Gasol.
KG is similar to Tim Duncan in that he can score 20 and grab 15 rebounds in his sleep, but there are times where those numbers are bigger than his actual impact on the game. The other 29 teams in the NBA would love to have that problem, but aren't you just waiting for Garnett to have a dominating 33-point, 7-rebound, 3-block performance in this series as he did in the pivitol Game 5 against the Pistons? It may come tonight. Check that, it must come tonight. This is exactly why Boston capped off their amazing summer by trading for the Big Ticket- so he would bring his intensity and insane ability to the floor in the biggest game of the season and deliver the city its 17th banner. If this sleeping giant doesn't come alive tonight, you can bet that the other one will when it matters most.
Kobe needs this series to cement his legacy; he knows it, Phil Jackson knows it, you and I know it and Kobe knows that all of the above know it. Picture the Lakers coming back from 3-1 down and winning the last two games in Boston, with No. 24 going off for 35 in Game 7 and winning Finals MVP. MJ never did it and there isn't an athlete in professional sports that is as obsessed with one-upping a legend as much as Bryant is with Jordan. He has his chance to do it and soak in every television, radio and print analyst anointing him as the best that ever lived for at least a week until the hype dies down and reality sets back in. The scary thing is, he can do it and make it look easy, which is why it is imperative Boston seals the deal tonight.
For tonight I'm sticking with the C's, but beyond that... well, not so much. Kobe won't be denied in a Game 7 so, Boston, finish your work tonight or, like so many others, you could face the consequences of procrastination.
DTM
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Reaction to the Dolphins Releasing Zach Thomas
1,866 tackles, 19.5 sacks, 17 interceptions, 13 forced fumbles, 7 fumble recoveries, 4 TD, 7 Pro Bowl selections, 5 AP First Team All-Pro selections.
That is what Bill Parcells or Jeff Ireland or Tony Sparano let loose from the Miami Dolphins today. The numbers, as great as they are, do not justify what a great player Zach Thomas was for the past twelve years. He was the heart and soul of the Dolphins and the defenses he led, save 2007 when he missed all but five games, were outstanding, finishing in the top-5 a number of times, and rarely outside the top-10. Similar to the way Dan Marino never won a championship because the defense could never stop anyone, Zach Thomas will leave Miami ringless because the offense often struggled to put up 17 point in a game. He wore his emotions on his sleeve, something that he often says probably hurt the team more then it helped, but that was how tough each loss was for him. One of my favorite Zach Thomas moments was after a loss to the Jets in October 2001, in which the team had a 17-0 haltime lead, he came out and said that the team was soft and "absolute garbage." That isn't something that most coaches would want their leaders saying to the media after a loss, but that is just the kind of player Zach was. The Dolphins responded by winning six of their final eight games after that and finishing atop the AFC East with New England.
Inspiring is a word that best defines Thomas. A late 5th round draft choice in 1996, few remember him being drafted at all and the ones who do probably didn't think he had a shot to make the roster. Turns out this 5-11, 228 pound, smaller-than-most-running backs-linebacker did make the roster. Then he won NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year after notching 180 tackles, two sacks, three interceptions, two fumble recoveries, and two forced fumbles. The rest is history after that because those numbers became commonplace for Thomas over the next 11 seasons.
You want inspiring? Four of my most memorable moments watching Thomas could be labeled as just that. How about in the first half of his first career game he puts a hit on Patriots wide receiver Shawn Jefferson that left him motionless on the ground and ultimately knocked him out for the game? It was the hit heard 'round the league because from that point on, the NFL knew who Zach Thomas was. How about his 22 tackles in the 2002 Wild Card Playoff game against the Ravens? Doctors advised him to sit the game out because of fear that if he played he would sustain serious injuries to his already injured neck. The man's well-being was on the line and rather then sit and watch the fate of his team unfold before him, he went out and did everything he could to help them advance. How about the game clinching interception in the 2001 season opener in Tennessee? The Dolphins led the host Titans 24-16 with less than two minutes to play. Neil O'Donnell took over for an injured Steve McNair and tried to lead them to a last minute comeback. Thomas stepped into the flat, picked off O'Donnell's pass and ran it back for a touchdown, and even threw in a front flip as he crossed the goal-line. Lastly, how about the two stops he made on Falcons rookie phenom Michael Vick in the waning seconds in 2001? Thomas was underrated athletically, but there is no reason he should have been able to track down and stop Vick short of the goal line on consecutive plays from the one yard-line. But he did, preserving a 21-14 victory and clinching the final playoff spot he would have in his career as a Dolphin.
Zach Thomas will forever be a fan favorite in Miami and will have his jersey retired and name plastered in the Dolphins Ring of Fame at Dolphins Stadium as soon as he calls it a career. Thomas began his career as a long shot to make Jimmy Johnson's first Miami roster and finished it as the best linebacker in Dolphins history, and arguably a Hall of Fame linebacker. I'll never understand why he isn't a sure bet for Canton, but I hope to one day have a vote and I can assure you that Zach Thomas will get my vote every year until he is voted in. Name three linebackers who have been better then Thomas the past 12 years.. Tough isn't it? If you came up with any, how many of them led defenses that were constantly in the top-5 to 10 in the league? Ray Lewis. That's all I have. But wait... Zach has more tackles than anyone currently in the Hall of Fame. That has to count for something. The one thing writers say holds him back is his lack of playoff success, which again, has little to do with his play. If every player was as good and as dedicated and played with as much heart as Thomas did for Miami, he would've won the Super Bowl. Unfortunately it doesn't work like that, so please don't hold that against him.
I hope he does give it one more shot with a contender, as hard as it would be to see him in the middle of any defense other than Miami. In fact, sign with New England. Miami Herald's Dolphins beat writer Armando Sulguero wrote in his blog today that he hopes Thomas does anything but that. But why not? Junior Seau and Teddi Bruschi are unsigned and Thomas is better then both of them now and maybe ever, so there is room for him. And, while this past season showed nothing is guaranteed, the Patriots will be in the playoffs and will give him the best shot to win the ring he deserves. So you have my blessing Zach (I know how much that matters), and how could I not grant you that much after you granted me so many blessings on the field for the past 12 seasons? As usual, I am sad when another Dolphins legend leaves without the hardware because he was letdown by the other side of the ball and management in general. But unlike the other sports writers of the world, I won't hold that against you. Thanks for everything.
DTM
That is what Bill Parcells or Jeff Ireland or Tony Sparano let loose from the Miami Dolphins today. The numbers, as great as they are, do not justify what a great player Zach Thomas was for the past twelve years. He was the heart and soul of the Dolphins and the defenses he led, save 2007 when he missed all but five games, were outstanding, finishing in the top-5 a number of times, and rarely outside the top-10. Similar to the way Dan Marino never won a championship because the defense could never stop anyone, Zach Thomas will leave Miami ringless because the offense often struggled to put up 17 point in a game. He wore his emotions on his sleeve, something that he often says probably hurt the team more then it helped, but that was how tough each loss was for him. One of my favorite Zach Thomas moments was after a loss to the Jets in October 2001, in which the team had a 17-0 haltime lead, he came out and said that the team was soft and "absolute garbage." That isn't something that most coaches would want their leaders saying to the media after a loss, but that is just the kind of player Zach was. The Dolphins responded by winning six of their final eight games after that and finishing atop the AFC East with New England.
Inspiring is a word that best defines Thomas. A late 5th round draft choice in 1996, few remember him being drafted at all and the ones who do probably didn't think he had a shot to make the roster. Turns out this 5-11, 228 pound, smaller-than-most-running backs-linebacker did make the roster. Then he won NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year after notching 180 tackles, two sacks, three interceptions, two fumble recoveries, and two forced fumbles. The rest is history after that because those numbers became commonplace for Thomas over the next 11 seasons.
You want inspiring? Four of my most memorable moments watching Thomas could be labeled as just that. How about in the first half of his first career game he puts a hit on Patriots wide receiver Shawn Jefferson that left him motionless on the ground and ultimately knocked him out for the game? It was the hit heard 'round the league because from that point on, the NFL knew who Zach Thomas was. How about his 22 tackles in the 2002 Wild Card Playoff game against the Ravens? Doctors advised him to sit the game out because of fear that if he played he would sustain serious injuries to his already injured neck. The man's well-being was on the line and rather then sit and watch the fate of his team unfold before him, he went out and did everything he could to help them advance. How about the game clinching interception in the 2001 season opener in Tennessee? The Dolphins led the host Titans 24-16 with less than two minutes to play. Neil O'Donnell took over for an injured Steve McNair and tried to lead them to a last minute comeback. Thomas stepped into the flat, picked off O'Donnell's pass and ran it back for a touchdown, and even threw in a front flip as he crossed the goal-line. Lastly, how about the two stops he made on Falcons rookie phenom Michael Vick in the waning seconds in 2001? Thomas was underrated athletically, but there is no reason he should have been able to track down and stop Vick short of the goal line on consecutive plays from the one yard-line. But he did, preserving a 21-14 victory and clinching the final playoff spot he would have in his career as a Dolphin.
Zach Thomas will forever be a fan favorite in Miami and will have his jersey retired and name plastered in the Dolphins Ring of Fame at Dolphins Stadium as soon as he calls it a career. Thomas began his career as a long shot to make Jimmy Johnson's first Miami roster and finished it as the best linebacker in Dolphins history, and arguably a Hall of Fame linebacker. I'll never understand why he isn't a sure bet for Canton, but I hope to one day have a vote and I can assure you that Zach Thomas will get my vote every year until he is voted in. Name three linebackers who have been better then Thomas the past 12 years.. Tough isn't it? If you came up with any, how many of them led defenses that were constantly in the top-5 to 10 in the league? Ray Lewis. That's all I have. But wait... Zach has more tackles than anyone currently in the Hall of Fame. That has to count for something. The one thing writers say holds him back is his lack of playoff success, which again, has little to do with his play. If every player was as good and as dedicated and played with as much heart as Thomas did for Miami, he would've won the Super Bowl. Unfortunately it doesn't work like that, so please don't hold that against him.
I hope he does give it one more shot with a contender, as hard as it would be to see him in the middle of any defense other than Miami. In fact, sign with New England. Miami Herald's Dolphins beat writer Armando Sulguero wrote in his blog today that he hopes Thomas does anything but that. But why not? Junior Seau and Teddi Bruschi are unsigned and Thomas is better then both of them now and maybe ever, so there is room for him. And, while this past season showed nothing is guaranteed, the Patriots will be in the playoffs and will give him the best shot to win the ring he deserves. So you have my blessing Zach (I know how much that matters), and how could I not grant you that much after you granted me so many blessings on the field for the past 12 seasons? As usual, I am sad when another Dolphins legend leaves without the hardware because he was letdown by the other side of the ball and management in general. But unlike the other sports writers of the world, I won't hold that against you. Thanks for everything.
DTM
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Shaq Trade Puts Flame Out In Phoenix
If the Suns traded for Shaquille O'Neal to rid themselves of their unhappy star Shawn Marion then great, mission accomplished. But if new General Manager Steve Kerr really believes this move makes the Suns better then he clearly will never be as good of a personnel man as he was a set shooter. Everything you are reading about this trade from the so-called professional analysts is true (for once). Shaq is a bad fit in Phoenix. He would have been four years ago if he came straight from L.A. when he actually had some gas left in the tank, and since his large tank is sitting on "E" right now, it's an even worse fit. The Suns are a run and gun, out-shoot, we-dare-you-to-outscore-us team. They have never been about stopping anybody nor have they ever attempted to beat a team in the half-court. Look at O'Neal's history. Name me one team he has played on that wasn't at least very good on defense and played strictly in the half court on offense? You can't because naturally Shaq's presence in the paint will make you a better defensive team if the players around you are willing to play on that end, and of course if you have the most dominant big man of this century, you aren't going to run your offense in transition.
Newsflash: the Suns just traded away their best defender in Marion, leaving them with one player on their team who has even heard the word defense (Raja Bell), which will minimize Shaq's effect on the defensive end, and there aren't many players on the Suns who are equipped to play offense in the half-court. Amare Stoudamire has no mid-range game, which is what a four man must have playing next to the Big Fella, and the guards are all used to releasing down the floor as soon as a rebound is cleared and waiting on the other end for Steve Nash to find them. How do you think Bell, Barbosa, Grant Hill, and Boris Diaw are going to fare now that they are constricted to the half-court? This is a trade that would have to be made at the beginning of the season for it to work because that would allow the players and coaches to get accustomed to working with O'Neal and getting used to a new style offense. That is exactly what those 10 preseason games are for. Unfortunately, the season is just about 50 games old, so there is no "wait it out" period for the Suns. The clock has been ticking on this franchise for the past few years now and with their new addition being 35 and out of gas, one has to believe that the Suns window to capture the championship that has eluded them is closing at an even faster rate.
DTM
Newsflash: the Suns just traded away their best defender in Marion, leaving them with one player on their team who has even heard the word defense (Raja Bell), which will minimize Shaq's effect on the defensive end, and there aren't many players on the Suns who are equipped to play offense in the half-court. Amare Stoudamire has no mid-range game, which is what a four man must have playing next to the Big Fella, and the guards are all used to releasing down the floor as soon as a rebound is cleared and waiting on the other end for Steve Nash to find them. How do you think Bell, Barbosa, Grant Hill, and Boris Diaw are going to fare now that they are constricted to the half-court? This is a trade that would have to be made at the beginning of the season for it to work because that would allow the players and coaches to get accustomed to working with O'Neal and getting used to a new style offense. That is exactly what those 10 preseason games are for. Unfortunately, the season is just about 50 games old, so there is no "wait it out" period for the Suns. The clock has been ticking on this franchise for the past few years now and with their new addition being 35 and out of gas, one has to believe that the Suns window to capture the championship that has eluded them is closing at an even faster rate.
DTM
Sunday, February 3, 2008
Super Bowl Sunday: The Idiot Makes His Final Pick
The day has finally come. Super Bowl Sunday. The final chapter of a rather anti-climactic season. As predictable as this season has been, I've still managed to log a 4-6 record picking these playoffs, and these two teams have contributed to that record in different ways. Of the the four games I picked correctly, two of them were games New England won, which doesn't make me a genius because everyone has been picking New England since late-April 2007. Of the six games I've picked wrong, the Giants won three of them. I stand 2-0 picking New England games and 0-3 in picking Giants games, so something has to give today.
Super Bowl: New York Giants vs. New England Patriots
The ridiculous amount of senseless coverage the media gives the Super Bowl in the two weeks leading up to the game has had me laughing even harder than usual. Not because a player said something funny or another player got arrested the night before the biggest game of their lives, but because of the media members themselves analyzing this game. I would say that I've seen about 40% of the media, whether it be on television or on the internet, picking the Giants to win this game. So let me get this straight.. all of you people who have been worshipping the machine that is the New England Patriots all year long, and yes I mean ALL OF YOU, are now picking them to lose the biggest game of the season and break up their undefeated season? And for what reason? Because the Giants ONLY lost to them by three points a month ago at home in the final week of the season in a meaningless game other than the fact that it cemented New England into regular season history forever? And it's all the same people who a week prior to that were saying the Giants were going to lose in Buffalo and thus be eliminated from the playoffs because they had no chance of beating the Patriots the final week of the season. This is why I can't wait to become a part of the professional media because I can say one thing all year long and then completely change my opinion on a whim based on no real logic.
Look the Giants are a great story. Eli Manning has had a great postseason and who doesn't feel good for Lawrence "thank god they aren't calling me Scott Norwood, Jr." Tynes after he saved his career with that 47-yard kick in overtime to send New York to the Super Bowl? But this is the Patriots we're talking about here. They've been here before, in case you forgot, and rather recently. They've won four, or excuse me, three (it will be four after tonight) of the last five Super Bowls, and still have many of the same pieces in place from those championship teams. The scary thing about it is that the pieces that aren't the same are better than the ones that were there before. Take for example the Super Bowl MVP from their last title in 2005, Deion Branch. Yea, that MVP was replaced by some dude named Randy Moss. An old Corey Dillion has been replaced by Lawrence Maroney, and the 95-year old slot receiver, Troy Brown, has been replaced by Wes Welker, who led the entire league in catches this year. Is the defense old? Sure it is, but it's never been about the players on defense during their reign, it's been about the brains behind the defense. Yes, I'm talking about Bill Belichek. You didn't think wide receiver Troy Brown in his mid-30's was truly a great cornerback did you? Of course he wasn't, but Belichek made him look competent for the time he had to fill in. Belichek will throw everything he has at Eli Manning today and it will be a great experience for him to refer back to someday, but for today, it will be a nightmare. Any offense the Giants get will be from the running game and their little bolt of lightning, Ahmed Bradshaw. That may work in the Giants favor because that means the clock is moving and the Patriots offense is off the field; however, I can't see it working long enough and manufacturing enough points to win the game.
So yes, Plaxico Burress, the Patriots will outscore you today and they will score more than 17 points in doing so. And yes, fans and media members everywhere, we are going to see history today whether you like it or not, and I'm not talking about the Greatest Upset in Super Bowl History. The Patriots are going to win this game going away because that's just what they do. Whenever they hear that the media thinks they may have a test on their hands, they pull through with their best performance of the season. Anyone who is upset about that can blame the wonderful media because the Patriots successful march to history is entirely their fault.
Patriots: 37
Giants: 17
MVP: It will be Tom Brady, but if I had to guess someone else I would go with Wes Welker.
NostraDTMus
Super Bowl: New York Giants vs. New England Patriots
The ridiculous amount of senseless coverage the media gives the Super Bowl in the two weeks leading up to the game has had me laughing even harder than usual. Not because a player said something funny or another player got arrested the night before the biggest game of their lives, but because of the media members themselves analyzing this game. I would say that I've seen about 40% of the media, whether it be on television or on the internet, picking the Giants to win this game. So let me get this straight.. all of you people who have been worshipping the machine that is the New England Patriots all year long, and yes I mean ALL OF YOU, are now picking them to lose the biggest game of the season and break up their undefeated season? And for what reason? Because the Giants ONLY lost to them by three points a month ago at home in the final week of the season in a meaningless game other than the fact that it cemented New England into regular season history forever? And it's all the same people who a week prior to that were saying the Giants were going to lose in Buffalo and thus be eliminated from the playoffs because they had no chance of beating the Patriots the final week of the season. This is why I can't wait to become a part of the professional media because I can say one thing all year long and then completely change my opinion on a whim based on no real logic.
Look the Giants are a great story. Eli Manning has had a great postseason and who doesn't feel good for Lawrence "thank god they aren't calling me Scott Norwood, Jr." Tynes after he saved his career with that 47-yard kick in overtime to send New York to the Super Bowl? But this is the Patriots we're talking about here. They've been here before, in case you forgot, and rather recently. They've won four, or excuse me, three (it will be four after tonight) of the last five Super Bowls, and still have many of the same pieces in place from those championship teams. The scary thing about it is that the pieces that aren't the same are better than the ones that were there before. Take for example the Super Bowl MVP from their last title in 2005, Deion Branch. Yea, that MVP was replaced by some dude named Randy Moss. An old Corey Dillion has been replaced by Lawrence Maroney, and the 95-year old slot receiver, Troy Brown, has been replaced by Wes Welker, who led the entire league in catches this year. Is the defense old? Sure it is, but it's never been about the players on defense during their reign, it's been about the brains behind the defense. Yes, I'm talking about Bill Belichek. You didn't think wide receiver Troy Brown in his mid-30's was truly a great cornerback did you? Of course he wasn't, but Belichek made him look competent for the time he had to fill in. Belichek will throw everything he has at Eli Manning today and it will be a great experience for him to refer back to someday, but for today, it will be a nightmare. Any offense the Giants get will be from the running game and their little bolt of lightning, Ahmed Bradshaw. That may work in the Giants favor because that means the clock is moving and the Patriots offense is off the field; however, I can't see it working long enough and manufacturing enough points to win the game.
So yes, Plaxico Burress, the Patriots will outscore you today and they will score more than 17 points in doing so. And yes, fans and media members everywhere, we are going to see history today whether you like it or not, and I'm not talking about the Greatest Upset in Super Bowl History. The Patriots are going to win this game going away because that's just what they do. Whenever they hear that the media thinks they may have a test on their hands, they pull through with their best performance of the season. Anyone who is upset about that can blame the wonderful media because the Patriots successful march to history is entirely their fault.
Patriots: 37
Giants: 17
MVP: It will be Tom Brady, but if I had to guess someone else I would go with Wes Welker.
NostraDTMus
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Guess Who! NBA All-Star Edition
This time of year there is always much debate about who should really be starting for the NBA All-Star teams. The fact is, the NBA All-Star game can be the most exciting, but is always the most meaningless and fraud of them all. For the most part, the starters remain the same each season, even if a certain star switches conferences (see Kevin Garnett). And why is that? Well, because unlike the MLB and NFL, the NBA's All-Star teams are selected by the fans. No player vote is counted, nor is the coaches. That leaves players like Chris Paul, who in my opinion is the league MVP through the season's first half, possibly out of the game entirely. The NBA needs to do something about this because the fans often get it wrong.
NBA legend and TNT analyst Charles Barkley was particularly upset about one of the starters named this past Thursday, and I can't for the life of me understand why he has such beef with this particular selection. I'll let you decide how legitimate Barkley's argument is. Without giving away their names, I'm going to list each player's numbers through the games of January 25; their role on the team, and their team's record to this point. At the end, after you have a chance to decide the legitimacy of Sir Charles' beef, I will give you the names of each player. A little 'Guess Who'- NBA Edition.
Player A (named All-Star starter)- 43 games/22.1 ppg/10.7 rpg/2.4 apg/2.7 bpg
Offensive role: Focal point of offense, player opposing team must gameplan for most
Defensive role: Most dependable post defender, shot alterer
Team Record: 24-19 (SOS- .519)
Player B (Barkley's choice)- 41 games/9.4 ppg/14.4 rpg/3 apg/3.9 bpg
Offensive role: Fourth option at best, requires no extra game planning from opposition
Defensive role: Own the paint, change shots, defensive catalyst
Team record: 26-16 (SOS- .489)
Viewing the numbers, it becomes clear that both players are used differently by their respective ball club. However, the only true deficit in any statistical category comes in points per game. Player A dominates that category, and is considerably close in each other category listed. Player A leads his team in points, rebounds, and blocked shots and is the focal point of the offense. He is also depended on just as heavily as Player B in his role on defense- to clog the lane, and change shots. Player B has little to no responsibility on offense other than to take up space and clean the glass. That allows him to save his energy for one end of the floor, while Player A clearly does not have this luxury. Player B's team has a slightly better record, but that slim margin can be wiped out by the fact that Player A's team has played a considerably more difficult schedule to this point.
So who are these mystery candidates? I'll give you a few clues. Player A is the worst officiated player in the NBA and has kept his team above water despite the team's other star missing 15 games. Player B plays on a team with two players who were named All-Star starters, which doesn't help his cause in any way because it could be argued that their ability has helped Player B flourish.
If you didn't know before the clues, and you still don't know with the help of them, then what you have gathered at this point is that you wasted your time reading this piece because you know nothing about the NBA. Player A is the Houston Rockets center, Yao Ming, and Player B is the Denver Nuggets center, Marcus Camby. Both players deserve a spot on the roster and lets be real, it really doesn't matter which is on the court at what time because centers are basically invisible throughout the All-Star game anyway because it's a guards showcase. And I know Barkley is a true Rockets hater, but seriously Charles, Yao deserves to be the Western Conference's starter at center and you don't have enough ammo in that tank to convince me otherwise.
DTM
NBA legend and TNT analyst Charles Barkley was particularly upset about one of the starters named this past Thursday, and I can't for the life of me understand why he has such beef with this particular selection. I'll let you decide how legitimate Barkley's argument is. Without giving away their names, I'm going to list each player's numbers through the games of January 25; their role on the team, and their team's record to this point. At the end, after you have a chance to decide the legitimacy of Sir Charles' beef, I will give you the names of each player. A little 'Guess Who'- NBA Edition.
Player A (named All-Star starter)- 43 games/22.1 ppg/10.7 rpg/2.4 apg/2.7 bpg
Offensive role: Focal point of offense, player opposing team must gameplan for most
Defensive role: Most dependable post defender, shot alterer
Team Record: 24-19 (SOS- .519)
Player B (Barkley's choice)- 41 games/9.4 ppg/14.4 rpg/3 apg/3.9 bpg
Offensive role: Fourth option at best, requires no extra game planning from opposition
Defensive role: Own the paint, change shots, defensive catalyst
Team record: 26-16 (SOS- .489)
Viewing the numbers, it becomes clear that both players are used differently by their respective ball club. However, the only true deficit in any statistical category comes in points per game. Player A dominates that category, and is considerably close in each other category listed. Player A leads his team in points, rebounds, and blocked shots and is the focal point of the offense. He is also depended on just as heavily as Player B in his role on defense- to clog the lane, and change shots. Player B has little to no responsibility on offense other than to take up space and clean the glass. That allows him to save his energy for one end of the floor, while Player A clearly does not have this luxury. Player B's team has a slightly better record, but that slim margin can be wiped out by the fact that Player A's team has played a considerably more difficult schedule to this point.
So who are these mystery candidates? I'll give you a few clues. Player A is the worst officiated player in the NBA and has kept his team above water despite the team's other star missing 15 games. Player B plays on a team with two players who were named All-Star starters, which doesn't help his cause in any way because it could be argued that their ability has helped Player B flourish.
If you didn't know before the clues, and you still don't know with the help of them, then what you have gathered at this point is that you wasted your time reading this piece because you know nothing about the NBA. Player A is the Houston Rockets center, Yao Ming, and Player B is the Denver Nuggets center, Marcus Camby. Both players deserve a spot on the roster and lets be real, it really doesn't matter which is on the court at what time because centers are basically invisible throughout the All-Star game anyway because it's a guards showcase. And I know Barkley is a true Rockets hater, but seriously Charles, Yao deserves to be the Western Conference's starter at center and you don't have enough ammo in that tank to convince me otherwise.
DTM
Sunday, January 20, 2008
Championship Weekend Prediction: Party Like it's 1997
Finished the Divisional Round 2-2 after getting burned by the Manning's. What a shock. If I sweep the final three games I can finish a respectable 6-5 for the playoffs. In order to do that I have to- get ready for it- "take it one game at a time." Lets start with the AFC.
AFC Championship: San Diego Chargers vs. New England Patriots
The Bolts shocked the world last weekend in Indianapolis, although, it shouldn't be as big of a shock as everyone made it out to be. The Chargers haven't lost since Nov. 18 at Jacksonville- an eight game span. When the playoffs began, I felt Rivers would be the one to do them in since he seemed to be more focused on trash talking anyone and everyone rather then beating the other team. Rivers has proven me wrong the past few weeks, along with another quarterback that we'll get to later, but I think he may do them in today for a completely different reason. The late word just came in that Rivers will start today, which sounds good for San Diego, but the reality is the man is not healthy. He will have trouble moving around on his injured knee and that's the last thing you want when going against a Bill Belichek defense. It also doesn't help that LT and Antonio Gates are hobbled as well. Teams at full strength can't beat the Patriots, how do you expect a team whose three best players are playing with serious injuries? The Chargers have been a great story, and provided me personally with great joy last weekend after knocking of Peyton and the Colts, but I don't see them going into Foxboro beating the Pats at full strength let alone their current state. I think the Charger defense pressures Brady and gives the Pats some problems early, but this should get ugly in the second half after Billy Boy makes his halftime adjustments. It's 18 and counting as the Pats roll, 29-13.
NFC Championship: New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers
The Giants have won nine straight road games. The Packers lost once at home in 2007, and just twice in playoff history at Lambeau Field, so something has to give today. Let me start off by saying that people are making way too much out of the weather situation in Green Bay. The game-time temperature is supposed to be around one degree with a -12 wind chill, and everyone seems to think this favors the Packers. First of all, conditions like that favor no one because they just don't happen that often and neither of these teams practice in a cooler in preparation. Secondly, the Giants are from New York and it would actually be colder in Giants Stadium under those temperatures because the wind would be a much greater factor, so don't tell me the Giants are at a disadvantage because of weather. They are at a disadvantage because the Packers have Brett Favre. This legend is on a mission to retire in 2008. He has talked about wanting to continue next year, but I can promise you he will hang it up if he wins today and beats New England in two weeks. However, if that is going to happen, its going to come down to his running back Ryan Grant. Throwing the ball will be very difficult under the freezing conditions so I'm guessing the running backs will have a lot to say about who wins this game. There isn't a back left playing as well as Ryan Grant has been and while the Giants sport a great ground game with Jacobs and Bradshaw, I think Grant will again steal the show as he did last week against Seattle. His play should open up some opportunities down field for Favre and he will expose the Giants secondary in ways Tony Romo couldn't last week. Eli Manning has been fantastic the past few weeks, but I don't see him going into Lambeau and upstaging the legend. Eli and the Giants will be back, but it's Favre and the Packers day, 17-10 Packers.
The stage is set. A rematch of the '97 Super Bowl, a game that a young Brett Favre won 35-21 over Bill Parcells' and Drew Bledsoe's Patriots. A growing legend- Tom Brady- vs. an immortal in Brett Favre. It should be a special game. Check back in two weeks for my prediction on that match-up or another if some surprises occur today.
NostraDTMus
AFC Championship: San Diego Chargers vs. New England Patriots
The Bolts shocked the world last weekend in Indianapolis, although, it shouldn't be as big of a shock as everyone made it out to be. The Chargers haven't lost since Nov. 18 at Jacksonville- an eight game span. When the playoffs began, I felt Rivers would be the one to do them in since he seemed to be more focused on trash talking anyone and everyone rather then beating the other team. Rivers has proven me wrong the past few weeks, along with another quarterback that we'll get to later, but I think he may do them in today for a completely different reason. The late word just came in that Rivers will start today, which sounds good for San Diego, but the reality is the man is not healthy. He will have trouble moving around on his injured knee and that's the last thing you want when going against a Bill Belichek defense. It also doesn't help that LT and Antonio Gates are hobbled as well. Teams at full strength can't beat the Patriots, how do you expect a team whose three best players are playing with serious injuries? The Chargers have been a great story, and provided me personally with great joy last weekend after knocking of Peyton and the Colts, but I don't see them going into Foxboro beating the Pats at full strength let alone their current state. I think the Charger defense pressures Brady and gives the Pats some problems early, but this should get ugly in the second half after Billy Boy makes his halftime adjustments. It's 18 and counting as the Pats roll, 29-13.
NFC Championship: New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers
The Giants have won nine straight road games. The Packers lost once at home in 2007, and just twice in playoff history at Lambeau Field, so something has to give today. Let me start off by saying that people are making way too much out of the weather situation in Green Bay. The game-time temperature is supposed to be around one degree with a -12 wind chill, and everyone seems to think this favors the Packers. First of all, conditions like that favor no one because they just don't happen that often and neither of these teams practice in a cooler in preparation. Secondly, the Giants are from New York and it would actually be colder in Giants Stadium under those temperatures because the wind would be a much greater factor, so don't tell me the Giants are at a disadvantage because of weather. They are at a disadvantage because the Packers have Brett Favre. This legend is on a mission to retire in 2008. He has talked about wanting to continue next year, but I can promise you he will hang it up if he wins today and beats New England in two weeks. However, if that is going to happen, its going to come down to his running back Ryan Grant. Throwing the ball will be very difficult under the freezing conditions so I'm guessing the running backs will have a lot to say about who wins this game. There isn't a back left playing as well as Ryan Grant has been and while the Giants sport a great ground game with Jacobs and Bradshaw, I think Grant will again steal the show as he did last week against Seattle. His play should open up some opportunities down field for Favre and he will expose the Giants secondary in ways Tony Romo couldn't last week. Eli Manning has been fantastic the past few weeks, but I don't see him going into Lambeau and upstaging the legend. Eli and the Giants will be back, but it's Favre and the Packers day, 17-10 Packers.
The stage is set. A rematch of the '97 Super Bowl, a game that a young Brett Favre won 35-21 over Bill Parcells' and Drew Bledsoe's Patriots. A growing legend- Tom Brady- vs. an immortal in Brett Favre. It should be a special game. Check back in two weeks for my prediction on that match-up or another if some surprises occur today.
NostraDTMus
Monday, January 14, 2008
Same Peyton, Different Year; Other Playoff Observations
A 2-2 finish this weekend wasn't exactly the revival I was looking for, but it was baby steps in the right direction. Here are some observations from the Divisional Round:
1. I nailed every aspect of the Packers/Seahawks pick with a big exception: Ryan Grant. We did see a vintage Brett Favre performance as he played mistake free football and threw some serious darts in the snow storm- a few which were snowballs- and the Seattle running game continued to sputter. What in the world happened to Shaun Alexander? I understand that Steve Hutchinson is good, but did he really account for every yard and touchdown that Alexander scored in that historic 2005 season? It appears so because in the 23 games he has played since losing Hutch, Alexander has rushed for 1,612 yards and 11 TD, averaging 3.55 ypc. In 2005 alone, he ran for 1,880 yards and 27 TD, averaging 5.1 ypc. Maybe that's why Holmgren lost his mind that off-season when the front office let Hutchinson go without much of a fight. If you still don't think the offensive line is that important, just take a look at Alexander's dramatic dip in productivity as proof of why it is. While injuries and age have some affect as well, Alexander and the Seahawks are still feeling the impact of losing Hutchinson. Anyway, Grant was the story of this game. His playoff debut began as a nightmare, but he ended up awakening from his wildest dream. Grant deserves a lot of credit for not letting the two early fumbles completely ruin his day as there are a number of veterans who may have tanked after such a dismal, error-filled start. If Grant continues to play this way, I wouldn't be so quick to hand Tom Brady and Bob Kraft their fourth title in seven years. Even the Patriots haven't played a team with the offensive balance the Packers have when Grant is playing at a high level. His breakout should make the next few weeks that much more interesting.
2. While the Pats victory over the Jags provided my second and final victory of the weekend, the game also provided me with a revelation. That would be that the Jacksonville Jaguars are the NFL's second best team in 2007-08. If you read my prediction of that game you noticed that I had little to no faith that the Jags would hang around very long in Foxboro. To my surprise, however, David Garrard went toe-to-toe with Tom Brady for about three quarters before burning out like every other quarterback on the other side does when matched up with The Great One. Jack Del Rio put his job and the season on the line in August when he released Byron Leftwich and promoted Garrard. I was the first person to scoff at the move, but again, I was wrong. The move worked and everything else went as planned (i.e the success of the running game and the defensive dominance). You can tell that this is an organization on the ups and may be New England's biggest threat in 2008-09. On the other side, Tom Brady is still the best quarterback in the game today and two victories from being the greatest in history, and Bill Belichek is still mad today even though his team is in the AFC Championship for the fifth time in seven years. And while I could write forever about how great the Patriots are, I'll just say this: Everyone who is saying that Brady is only having this magical season because of Wes Welker and Randy Moss, you lost any and all leverage on that argument this weekend. Moss caught one of Brady's 26 completions for 14 of his 262 yards. Brady would be the games best with Randy Moss and Terrell Owens or Teddy Ginn and Derek Hagan, LET IT GO!
3. The Sunday slate of games further emphasized why to never go against your heart. Lets start with the Colts-Chargers game. I hate Peyton Manning, but I hate him more in the playoffs. I had never picked the Colts in the playoffs prior to Sunday, and never will again. I told a friend of mine, still the only Colts fan I know to this day, in November 2005 that Manning would choke and the Colts would lose their first playoff game. Sure enough, Manning choked against the Steelers and the Colts lost their first playoff game. Despite the flashy new bling he acquired this offseason, Manning is still a playoff choke artist. Everyone loves to throw out the fact that Manning threw just three touchdowns and SEVEN interceptions in four playoff games last year during their Super Bowl run. Had it not been for the resurgent defense and the out of the blue breakout of Dominick Rhoades, Manning would have never won it last year, and I can say confidently today that he would have retired ringless. Now berate me and say that it wasn't his fault they lost yesterday because he threw for over 400 yards and three touchdowns. Okay great, now I'll counter with he threw for 400 yards because the Chargers took away their running game so he was forced to throw the whole game, and he threw two interceptions in the red zone, one that resulted in an 89-yard touchdown return only to be called back by a phantom holding call. I'm starting to think Joey Porter was absolutely right when he said the refs want the Colts to win every year after their victory in '05. I digress, but again, and you can quote me on this, I will never ever ever pick a Peyton Manning-led team to win a playoff game ever again because you know the guy will find a way to choke it away. The Chargers didn't even have their best player or their starting quarerback and Manning still couldn't find a way to lead his team to victory at home. Pathetic. Consider yourself lucky that you stole your ring last winter Peyton, now do the right thing and go pawn it because you should never have one. One quick word on the Chargers. Has any team ever flown further under the radar? The Bolts have won eight straight games and no one has bothered to notice or give them a fighting chance in any of these games. While I do see them getting obliterated in Foxboro Sunday, they deserve to make the trip and Norv Turner and Philip Rivers should get the love they deserve for this clearly unexpected run to Championship Weekend. How many teams would've won on the road without a player that is as important to their team as LT is to the Chargers? And how many would have hung on to win in the fourth without their starting quarterback who was having a career day? Not many. Major props to the Bolts.
4. Last week my personal public enemy number one, Skip Bayless, said on ESPN that he would take Eli Manning over Tony Romo for the next five years and I was absolutely disgusted with him as usual. While I will never stray from my feeling that he is the worst sports analyst from the weak crop ESPN has to offer, he may actually have been right here. Two weeks ago Romo and Manning had the same number of playoff victories- zero. Two weeks later, Eli is two up on Tony and has played outstanding in his past two. Even more impressive is the fact that both victories were on the road. Romo didn't play poorly Sunday, nor did he get much help from his mates- Patrick Crayton in particular, but this was supposed to be his year. Romo was the NFL's best quarterback not named Tom Brady in 2007, but unfortunatly, 2007 ended 14 days ago. I think Romo has what it takes to be a big winner in the NFL, and I pay no attention to his personal life, but it's clear that you see a different quarterback in the postseason than you do under the lights in the regular season. He seems to make that costly blunder at the worst time, similar to the way his Sunday counterpart used to. Eli has now gone two straight games without making that fatal mistake that has cost his team game after game for the past five years. Bayless may become one for the century with this bold call, but he'll have to wait a few more years to find out. Meanwhile, don't these Giants sort of remind you of the 2005-06 Pittsburgh Steelers? A quarterback hitting his stride at the right time, throwing to an underrated, yet very productive group of wide receivers, a stout offensive line leading the charge, and a defense that lives and dies off of pressuring the quarterback for four quarters. The thing about them that most reminds me of that Steelers squad is their running back combination. The effective change of pace speedster playing the role of Willie Parker is Ahmad Bradshaw, and Brandon Jacobs is their version of Jerome Bettis, playing the bruiser role. This team, like the Steelers, will have to win three games on the road just to get to the Super Bowl. Two down, one to go. A date with Brett Favre and a raucous Lambeau crowd looms, but I wouldn't be surprised if the G-men made it three for three on the road and marched on to Arizona.
DTM
1. I nailed every aspect of the Packers/Seahawks pick with a big exception: Ryan Grant. We did see a vintage Brett Favre performance as he played mistake free football and threw some serious darts in the snow storm- a few which were snowballs- and the Seattle running game continued to sputter. What in the world happened to Shaun Alexander? I understand that Steve Hutchinson is good, but did he really account for every yard and touchdown that Alexander scored in that historic 2005 season? It appears so because in the 23 games he has played since losing Hutch, Alexander has rushed for 1,612 yards and 11 TD, averaging 3.55 ypc. In 2005 alone, he ran for 1,880 yards and 27 TD, averaging 5.1 ypc. Maybe that's why Holmgren lost his mind that off-season when the front office let Hutchinson go without much of a fight. If you still don't think the offensive line is that important, just take a look at Alexander's dramatic dip in productivity as proof of why it is. While injuries and age have some affect as well, Alexander and the Seahawks are still feeling the impact of losing Hutchinson. Anyway, Grant was the story of this game. His playoff debut began as a nightmare, but he ended up awakening from his wildest dream. Grant deserves a lot of credit for not letting the two early fumbles completely ruin his day as there are a number of veterans who may have tanked after such a dismal, error-filled start. If Grant continues to play this way, I wouldn't be so quick to hand Tom Brady and Bob Kraft their fourth title in seven years. Even the Patriots haven't played a team with the offensive balance the Packers have when Grant is playing at a high level. His breakout should make the next few weeks that much more interesting.
2. While the Pats victory over the Jags provided my second and final victory of the weekend, the game also provided me with a revelation. That would be that the Jacksonville Jaguars are the NFL's second best team in 2007-08. If you read my prediction of that game you noticed that I had little to no faith that the Jags would hang around very long in Foxboro. To my surprise, however, David Garrard went toe-to-toe with Tom Brady for about three quarters before burning out like every other quarterback on the other side does when matched up with The Great One. Jack Del Rio put his job and the season on the line in August when he released Byron Leftwich and promoted Garrard. I was the first person to scoff at the move, but again, I was wrong. The move worked and everything else went as planned (i.e the success of the running game and the defensive dominance). You can tell that this is an organization on the ups and may be New England's biggest threat in 2008-09. On the other side, Tom Brady is still the best quarterback in the game today and two victories from being the greatest in history, and Bill Belichek is still mad today even though his team is in the AFC Championship for the fifth time in seven years. And while I could write forever about how great the Patriots are, I'll just say this: Everyone who is saying that Brady is only having this magical season because of Wes Welker and Randy Moss, you lost any and all leverage on that argument this weekend. Moss caught one of Brady's 26 completions for 14 of his 262 yards. Brady would be the games best with Randy Moss and Terrell Owens or Teddy Ginn and Derek Hagan, LET IT GO!
3. The Sunday slate of games further emphasized why to never go against your heart. Lets start with the Colts-Chargers game. I hate Peyton Manning, but I hate him more in the playoffs. I had never picked the Colts in the playoffs prior to Sunday, and never will again. I told a friend of mine, still the only Colts fan I know to this day, in November 2005 that Manning would choke and the Colts would lose their first playoff game. Sure enough, Manning choked against the Steelers and the Colts lost their first playoff game. Despite the flashy new bling he acquired this offseason, Manning is still a playoff choke artist. Everyone loves to throw out the fact that Manning threw just three touchdowns and SEVEN interceptions in four playoff games last year during their Super Bowl run. Had it not been for the resurgent defense and the out of the blue breakout of Dominick Rhoades, Manning would have never won it last year, and I can say confidently today that he would have retired ringless. Now berate me and say that it wasn't his fault they lost yesterday because he threw for over 400 yards and three touchdowns. Okay great, now I'll counter with he threw for 400 yards because the Chargers took away their running game so he was forced to throw the whole game, and he threw two interceptions in the red zone, one that resulted in an 89-yard touchdown return only to be called back by a phantom holding call. I'm starting to think Joey Porter was absolutely right when he said the refs want the Colts to win every year after their victory in '05. I digress, but again, and you can quote me on this, I will never ever ever pick a Peyton Manning-led team to win a playoff game ever again because you know the guy will find a way to choke it away. The Chargers didn't even have their best player or their starting quarerback and Manning still couldn't find a way to lead his team to victory at home. Pathetic. Consider yourself lucky that you stole your ring last winter Peyton, now do the right thing and go pawn it because you should never have one. One quick word on the Chargers. Has any team ever flown further under the radar? The Bolts have won eight straight games and no one has bothered to notice or give them a fighting chance in any of these games. While I do see them getting obliterated in Foxboro Sunday, they deserve to make the trip and Norv Turner and Philip Rivers should get the love they deserve for this clearly unexpected run to Championship Weekend. How many teams would've won on the road without a player that is as important to their team as LT is to the Chargers? And how many would have hung on to win in the fourth without their starting quarterback who was having a career day? Not many. Major props to the Bolts.
4. Last week my personal public enemy number one, Skip Bayless, said on ESPN that he would take Eli Manning over Tony Romo for the next five years and I was absolutely disgusted with him as usual. While I will never stray from my feeling that he is the worst sports analyst from the weak crop ESPN has to offer, he may actually have been right here. Two weeks ago Romo and Manning had the same number of playoff victories- zero. Two weeks later, Eli is two up on Tony and has played outstanding in his past two. Even more impressive is the fact that both victories were on the road. Romo didn't play poorly Sunday, nor did he get much help from his mates- Patrick Crayton in particular, but this was supposed to be his year. Romo was the NFL's best quarterback not named Tom Brady in 2007, but unfortunatly, 2007 ended 14 days ago. I think Romo has what it takes to be a big winner in the NFL, and I pay no attention to his personal life, but it's clear that you see a different quarterback in the postseason than you do under the lights in the regular season. He seems to make that costly blunder at the worst time, similar to the way his Sunday counterpart used to. Eli has now gone two straight games without making that fatal mistake that has cost his team game after game for the past five years. Bayless may become one for the century with this bold call, but he'll have to wait a few more years to find out. Meanwhile, don't these Giants sort of remind you of the 2005-06 Pittsburgh Steelers? A quarterback hitting his stride at the right time, throwing to an underrated, yet very productive group of wide receivers, a stout offensive line leading the charge, and a defense that lives and dies off of pressuring the quarterback for four quarters. The thing about them that most reminds me of that Steelers squad is their running back combination. The effective change of pace speedster playing the role of Willie Parker is Ahmad Bradshaw, and Brandon Jacobs is their version of Jerome Bettis, playing the bruiser role. This team, like the Steelers, will have to win three games on the road just to get to the Super Bowl. Two down, one to go. A date with Brett Favre and a raucous Lambeau crowd looms, but I wouldn't be surprised if the G-men made it three for three on the road and marched on to Arizona.
DTM
Saturday, January 12, 2008
Looking to Rebound: Divisional Playoff Predictions
I'll attempt to save face this weekend after a miserable 1-3 showing on Wild Card Weekend.
Saturday
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers
"We want the ball and we're gonna score!"- Matt Hasselbeck after winning the overtime coin toss in 2003 Wild Card game at Lambeau. If you recall, this was the season that the nation was pulling for Brett Favre. Okay so that's every season, but it was even moreso in the '03-'04 playoffs because it was just weeks after his magical Monday Night performance in Oakland only hours after his father died tragically. I was one of those who was pulling for Favre, but for this brief moment, I began rooting for the Seahawks. It's rare that you find a person with the balls to make such a bold prediction at an away stadium, Lambeau Field no less. Unfortunately, it didn't work out in overtime for the Seahawks as Al Harris picked off Hasselbeck and took it straight to the house a few minutes after Matty's Nostradamus impersonation. I don't see today's game going much better for the visiting Seahawks. The running game is still sputtering and receivers Deion Branch and DJ Hackett are banged up. The Packers, on the other hand, come in rested and healthy and have the balance on offense that can off-set the Seahawks pass rush. It's been a magical and improbable season for the Pack, and I don't see it ending today at home. We see a vintage Favre performance as the Packers take it, 24-13.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots
Let's just for a minute go back to the 2005 season. The Jaguars go to New England as winners of eight of their last nine regular season games, while the Patriots were flying under the radar despite being the defending Super Bowl champions and winning their third consecutive division title with relative ease. Everyone loved the Jags in that hyped-up Wild Card game. Byron Leftwich, the quarterback at the time, was playing great, the running game was running all over everyone, and the defense was unbreakable. The Patriots won 28-3, winning the second half 21-0. Fast forward to 2007, the Jags have won seven of nine and, for some unexplainable reason, I have seen a number of analysts, the same ones who have gushed over the Pats week after week, pick the Jaguars to go to Foxboro and beat the unbeaten. I'm lost. The Steelers scored 29 points on them, imagine what the Pats will score. They melted down in the fourth quarter, losing an 18 point lead, imagine what they'll do if they somehow fall into a late lead and see Tom Brady's unflappable demeanor on the other side. So why will the Jags beat the Pats? Because their receivers average a height of 6'4. The Jaguars receivers are taller then the Patriots defensive backs. Awesome, they still are all slouches. Ernest Wilford led the team with 45 receptions this season, a number that would rank fifth on the Patriots, even behind running back Kevin Faulk. The Jags only hope is that Maurice Jones-Drew just goes off for a record day, or Tom Brady gets sick and doesn't play- two things that I don't see happening, and may not be enough for the Jags if they did. Brady and Moss give Gostkowski the day off, Pats win 35-17.
Sunday
San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts
November 11, 2007: Week 10, Chargers 23, Colts 21.
You see the above score and say, well the Chargers pulled it off once, why can't they do it again? Well lets see.. Peyton Manning threw six interceptions, the Chargers scored twice on special teams and Adam Vinatieri missed two chip shot field goals, including the potential game winner from 29 yards out. Add all that up and the Chargers should've been up by so much that they should've been sitting their starters in the fourth quarter. Instead, it actually came down to the most clutch kicker of all time missing an almost unmissable kick. I'm still skeptical over Manning in the playoffs (I know he finally won a Super Bowl, but remember he threw 3 TD and 7 INT in the playoffs last year), but I am willing to bet my well being that he and Vinatieri don't perform that badly today, especially at home. Despite his own playoff struggles, I could see LaDanian Tomlinson single handedly winning this game for San Diego, especially on this surface where he'll run the 40 in about 3.4 seconds. Unfortunately the Chargers will be without Antonio Gates and his 984 receiving yards and nine touchdowns and I think that's ultimately where the upset talk ends. Tomlinson keeps it close against an overrated defense, but Indy gets its rematch with New England next weekend, 38-28 Colts.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
This is the weekends most intriguing match-up, and the hardest game to pick for a couple of reasons. Number one, it's a division game, the teams know eachother well and anything can happen. Number two, while you may want to give the edge to Dallas, keep in mind that it is very hard to beat a team three times in the same season. And lastly, while the Cowboys boast the better record, and the darling quarterback, it's the Giants and their beleaguered quarterback who have played much better of late. I am tired of hearing about the Romo/Simpson drama, and I don't put too much into Romo's late season struggles because they had pretty much everything wrapped up in early-December, but you just get the feeling that the Giants are finally ready to win a game of this magnitude. Manning has strung together a few great performances against good defenses (NE, TB), and the defense was dominant in Tampa last week. The Cowboys have been off for a week, but have been off mentally for about a month and I could see them coming out very rusty in the early stages of the game. That's when the Giants have to make their move. I want to doubt Terrell Owens and his health, but I would never after his performance in the Super Bowl against New England. There's also the fact that he doesn't need to be at 100% to run by the Giants secondary which is suspect at best. They played well against Tampa Bay, but Romo and his cast are much more dangerous then Jeff Garcia and Joey Galloway. I'm so tempted to pick the Giants and if they win, I'm going to hate myself for not going with my heart. Nevertheless, I'm taking Dallas to advance on the foot of Nick Folk- Cowboys win a classic, 34-31.
Here's to a better showing,
NostraDTMus
Saturday
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers
"We want the ball and we're gonna score!"- Matt Hasselbeck after winning the overtime coin toss in 2003 Wild Card game at Lambeau. If you recall, this was the season that the nation was pulling for Brett Favre. Okay so that's every season, but it was even moreso in the '03-'04 playoffs because it was just weeks after his magical Monday Night performance in Oakland only hours after his father died tragically. I was one of those who was pulling for Favre, but for this brief moment, I began rooting for the Seahawks. It's rare that you find a person with the balls to make such a bold prediction at an away stadium, Lambeau Field no less. Unfortunately, it didn't work out in overtime for the Seahawks as Al Harris picked off Hasselbeck and took it straight to the house a few minutes after Matty's Nostradamus impersonation. I don't see today's game going much better for the visiting Seahawks. The running game is still sputtering and receivers Deion Branch and DJ Hackett are banged up. The Packers, on the other hand, come in rested and healthy and have the balance on offense that can off-set the Seahawks pass rush. It's been a magical and improbable season for the Pack, and I don't see it ending today at home. We see a vintage Favre performance as the Packers take it, 24-13.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots
Let's just for a minute go back to the 2005 season. The Jaguars go to New England as winners of eight of their last nine regular season games, while the Patriots were flying under the radar despite being the defending Super Bowl champions and winning their third consecutive division title with relative ease. Everyone loved the Jags in that hyped-up Wild Card game. Byron Leftwich, the quarterback at the time, was playing great, the running game was running all over everyone, and the defense was unbreakable. The Patriots won 28-3, winning the second half 21-0. Fast forward to 2007, the Jags have won seven of nine and, for some unexplainable reason, I have seen a number of analysts, the same ones who have gushed over the Pats week after week, pick the Jaguars to go to Foxboro and beat the unbeaten. I'm lost. The Steelers scored 29 points on them, imagine what the Pats will score. They melted down in the fourth quarter, losing an 18 point lead, imagine what they'll do if they somehow fall into a late lead and see Tom Brady's unflappable demeanor on the other side. So why will the Jags beat the Pats? Because their receivers average a height of 6'4. The Jaguars receivers are taller then the Patriots defensive backs. Awesome, they still are all slouches. Ernest Wilford led the team with 45 receptions this season, a number that would rank fifth on the Patriots, even behind running back Kevin Faulk. The Jags only hope is that Maurice Jones-Drew just goes off for a record day, or Tom Brady gets sick and doesn't play- two things that I don't see happening, and may not be enough for the Jags if they did. Brady and Moss give Gostkowski the day off, Pats win 35-17.
Sunday
San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts
November 11, 2007: Week 10, Chargers 23, Colts 21.
You see the above score and say, well the Chargers pulled it off once, why can't they do it again? Well lets see.. Peyton Manning threw six interceptions, the Chargers scored twice on special teams and Adam Vinatieri missed two chip shot field goals, including the potential game winner from 29 yards out. Add all that up and the Chargers should've been up by so much that they should've been sitting their starters in the fourth quarter. Instead, it actually came down to the most clutch kicker of all time missing an almost unmissable kick. I'm still skeptical over Manning in the playoffs (I know he finally won a Super Bowl, but remember he threw 3 TD and 7 INT in the playoffs last year), but I am willing to bet my well being that he and Vinatieri don't perform that badly today, especially at home. Despite his own playoff struggles, I could see LaDanian Tomlinson single handedly winning this game for San Diego, especially on this surface where he'll run the 40 in about 3.4 seconds. Unfortunately the Chargers will be without Antonio Gates and his 984 receiving yards and nine touchdowns and I think that's ultimately where the upset talk ends. Tomlinson keeps it close against an overrated defense, but Indy gets its rematch with New England next weekend, 38-28 Colts.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
This is the weekends most intriguing match-up, and the hardest game to pick for a couple of reasons. Number one, it's a division game, the teams know eachother well and anything can happen. Number two, while you may want to give the edge to Dallas, keep in mind that it is very hard to beat a team three times in the same season. And lastly, while the Cowboys boast the better record, and the darling quarterback, it's the Giants and their beleaguered quarterback who have played much better of late. I am tired of hearing about the Romo/Simpson drama, and I don't put too much into Romo's late season struggles because they had pretty much everything wrapped up in early-December, but you just get the feeling that the Giants are finally ready to win a game of this magnitude. Manning has strung together a few great performances against good defenses (NE, TB), and the defense was dominant in Tampa last week. The Cowboys have been off for a week, but have been off mentally for about a month and I could see them coming out very rusty in the early stages of the game. That's when the Giants have to make their move. I want to doubt Terrell Owens and his health, but I would never after his performance in the Super Bowl against New England. There's also the fact that he doesn't need to be at 100% to run by the Giants secondary which is suspect at best. They played well against Tampa Bay, but Romo and his cast are much more dangerous then Jeff Garcia and Joey Galloway. I'm so tempted to pick the Giants and if they win, I'm going to hate myself for not going with my heart. Nevertheless, I'm taking Dallas to advance on the foot of Nick Folk- Cowboys win a classic, 34-31.
Here's to a better showing,
NostraDTMus
Monday, January 7, 2008
Was I Born to be a Sports Writer or What?
You may or may not have read my post regarding my predictions for this past weekends NFL playoff games. If you did, you would notice that the teams I picked to win went 1-3. That is the only figure I need to assure me that I was born to analyze and write about sports at the highest level. You see us sports writers, whether we are aspiring to be or have already reached the top of the profession, have one thing in common... we don't know jack. We like to think we do and we try our best to get it right, but the reality is that not most, but all of us know just as much as the average Joe that watches the games from his couch or the guy who blows thousands of dollars a year gambling trying to pick these games. The only difference is that I can put my insight into words and on paper better then you, and I may know more in general about the teams and the players and history and blah, blah, blah. The time I spend reading about sports, studying players and watching games absolutely sickens me, and it's times like this weekend that show how worthless all that time I spend is.
I raved about Ben Roethlisberger and how much better-equipped he was to succeed this weekend against playoff virgin David Garrard and what happens? Well neither played particularly well, but Ben throws three awful first half interceptions, and while he was fantastic in the second half, it was Garrard who led the Jags to victory in the final minute with an incredible 32- yard run on 4th and two. I underestimate the Seahawks at home and go for the feel good story of the Redskins, only to see exactly why Todd Collins hadn't made an NFL start in 10 years prior to this December. I trash Eli and his lack of success in big games, and compare Jeff Garcia to Steve Young with regards to his poise and accuracy, but as it turned out, Eli played flawlessly for three quarters, especially during the game clinching 15 play, 92-yard drive in the fourth quarter. Garcia, on the other hand, played the way he did in Detroit and Cleveland, which subsequently got him benched in two cities who are allergic to good quarterbacks.
So how'd I do this weekend? Well, I have another confession to make. I'm a huge Vince Young fan, and you can underline the word huge. Think of High School Musical and how much America's youth loves it, double their obsession, and you have how much I love VY (weird comparison I know, but I just saw a commercial for the play on ice and figured what the heck). Whenever the guy is on the field, I always believe whole-heartedly that his team is going to win, and despite his struggles yesterday and for much of this season, I will feel the same way when next year rolls around. I was this close to going out on a whim and picking Young and the Titans to upset the Chargers yesterday, a pick that would've made me 0 for the weekend. What's worse is that I probably would've picked them next weekend in New England had they won because I would think 'Hey, Young single handedly beat that unbeatable USC team in college, why can't he beat the unbeatable Patriots? He can, and I'm taking 'em!" That's how my brain works people, and lucky for me, this apple doesn't fall too far from the sports writers tree.
DTM
I raved about Ben Roethlisberger and how much better-equipped he was to succeed this weekend against playoff virgin David Garrard and what happens? Well neither played particularly well, but Ben throws three awful first half interceptions, and while he was fantastic in the second half, it was Garrard who led the Jags to victory in the final minute with an incredible 32- yard run on 4th and two. I underestimate the Seahawks at home and go for the feel good story of the Redskins, only to see exactly why Todd Collins hadn't made an NFL start in 10 years prior to this December. I trash Eli and his lack of success in big games, and compare Jeff Garcia to Steve Young with regards to his poise and accuracy, but as it turned out, Eli played flawlessly for three quarters, especially during the game clinching 15 play, 92-yard drive in the fourth quarter. Garcia, on the other hand, played the way he did in Detroit and Cleveland, which subsequently got him benched in two cities who are allergic to good quarterbacks.
So how'd I do this weekend? Well, I have another confession to make. I'm a huge Vince Young fan, and you can underline the word huge. Think of High School Musical and how much America's youth loves it, double their obsession, and you have how much I love VY (weird comparison I know, but I just saw a commercial for the play on ice and figured what the heck). Whenever the guy is on the field, I always believe whole-heartedly that his team is going to win, and despite his struggles yesterday and for much of this season, I will feel the same way when next year rolls around. I was this close to going out on a whim and picking Young and the Titans to upset the Chargers yesterday, a pick that would've made me 0 for the weekend. What's worse is that I probably would've picked them next weekend in New England had they won because I would think 'Hey, Young single handedly beat that unbeatable USC team in college, why can't he beat the unbeatable Patriots? He can, and I'm taking 'em!" That's how my brain works people, and lucky for me, this apple doesn't fall too far from the sports writers tree.
DTM
Saturday, January 5, 2008
Wild Card Weekend Forecast
Saturday:
Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks appear to have the advantage in this game because of their great home-field atmosphere. Unfortunately it appears that may be the only advantage they take into the ballgame. Their only home loss came to New Orleans in mid-October, but you have to go even further back than that to find the last time they had a 100 yard rusher (Week 3 vs. Cincinnati). It will be key for the Hawks to find a balance offensively today because Washington's secondary has been playing about as well as any unit in recent weeks and they don't stand much of a chance if Hasselbeck throws it 40 times. Seattle is a different team at home (7-1), but the Redskins are riding a wave of emotion and have that feel of a team of destiny. In this battle of "12th man's" I give the edge to the one of higher power- Sean Taylor. Todd Collins protects the ball and takes his and his teams Cinderella story to the Lone-star State for a rubber with the Cowboy next week, 20-16 Redskins.
Jacksonville Jaguars at PIttsburgh Steelers
Everybody and their brother has jumped off the Pittsburgh Steelers and onto the Jacksonville bangwagon. I'm not one of those people. Tom Jackson and I may be the only two people in the universe who think Pittsburgh is going to win this game. I understand that Jacksonville went to Pittsburgh and won not even a month ago. That was a great showing, and they are undoubtably among the leagues hottest teams, but lets look at the the key positions and who holds the advantages. At quarterback David Garrard is making his first career playoff start on the road, while Big Benny has already won a Super Bowl. To add to that, while everyone is all over Garrard and his efficiency, Roethlisberger had probably the best season for a quarterback not named Brady or Romo. The Steelers hold a serious edge at wide receiver with Hines Ward, Nate Washington and Santonio Holmes (I'll stop there because I can't name Jacksonville's receivers and I'm too lazy to look them up at this point). Defensively, the Steelers rank numero uno, and while the Jags made mince meat of it a few weeks ago, do you really think Mike Tomlin hasn't made some serious adjustments in the weeks leading up to this game? The nationwide perception of the Steelers has fallen off considerably since they took a beat down in Foxboro (thanks a lot Anthony Smith), but then again, who hasn't this season? I think the Steelers go into this game with a chip on their shoulder and show the world that they will once again be a factor in the AFC race and, with all do respect to Jacksonville, I think they do it emphatically, 27-10.
Sunday
New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I didn't have to look any further than the quarterbacks to decide the winner of this match-up. It kills me how fast the media can change their tune, just look at Eli Manning. The guy played miserable for much of the season, but he plays his best game of the season in WEEK 17 against New England and everyone is again saying that he is a franchise quarterback. The thing the Eli-lovers must have missed was that he threw his only interception of the game on his first pass after New England regained the lead late in the fourth quarter. I still look at Manning and see a quarterback that lacks composure and confidence, but that may just be the classic "Manning Demeanor." Whatever it is, he still turns the ball over too much (20 INT), and completes far too little of his passes (56% completions) for me to consider him a factor. He doesn't handle pressure well and you can bet that Jon Gruden will release the hounds on him today. On the flip side, you have Jeff Garcia. The fact that he is still playing amazes me. He made a few Pro Bowls in San Fran then signed as a free agent savior in Detroit (gulp) and Cleveland (yikes) only to be benched in both places. How many quarterbacks move on to lead a team to the playoffs after being benched in Cleveland and Detroit? Well it's not many, but here is one, and Garcia has done an admirable job. He, unlike Manning, is very calm in the pocket and doesn't turn the ball over, going 11 of the 13 games he started without throwing an interception. He also holds something else that Manning does not, and that would be the control and respect of the men in his huddle. The Giants can talk all they want about how they trust Eli, but just ask Tiki Barber how much respect Eli has in his own huddle. The last big thing Garcia has over Manning is a playoff win. Garcia won a number of them in San Francisco and won one last year for Philadelphia. The funny thing is that his last two playoff victories have come against the G-Men, in 2002 with SF and last year in Philly. After the Bucs take this game 23-14, I would like to know if it will be the first time in history that a quarterback beats a team in the playoffs as the starter for three different clubs.
Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers
This game was the hardest for me to pick. I love Vince Young and the aura he brings despite his hideous numbers this season (9 TD 17 INT), and I can't stand Philip Rivers and his trash talking Jay Cutler. I can't decide if the quarterbacks will completely decide this game or have little to do with the outcome. You know both teams will pound the ball, and that makes it hard for me to pick against San Diego because you know that LT will get at least 30 touches today. I think the Titans are better defensively then the Chargers, but if Haynesworth's hamstring is still nagging him, it's hard to believe that they will be able to contain the running game. It seems that all the injuries are building up on the Titans at the wrong time- Young, Bo Scaife, Roydell Williams, and Haynesworth- while the Chargers are completely healthy. Young being a game-time decision makes me want to pick the Titans because you know he will play and I have this feeling that he is going to give us that "put my team on my back and shock the world" performance that he constantly gave at Texas and in his rookie campaign last season, but he has been in and out of games too often lately for me to believe he's healthy enough to put out such an effort. I think the healthier and more experienced home team gets it done today. Mark this down because I can promise you that this will be the only time I ever pick a Norv Turner team to beat a Jeff Fisher team, 28-24 Chargers.
NostraDTMus
Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks appear to have the advantage in this game because of their great home-field atmosphere. Unfortunately it appears that may be the only advantage they take into the ballgame. Their only home loss came to New Orleans in mid-October, but you have to go even further back than that to find the last time they had a 100 yard rusher (Week 3 vs. Cincinnati). It will be key for the Hawks to find a balance offensively today because Washington's secondary has been playing about as well as any unit in recent weeks and they don't stand much of a chance if Hasselbeck throws it 40 times. Seattle is a different team at home (7-1), but the Redskins are riding a wave of emotion and have that feel of a team of destiny. In this battle of "12th man's" I give the edge to the one of higher power- Sean Taylor. Todd Collins protects the ball and takes his and his teams Cinderella story to the Lone-star State for a rubber with the Cowboy next week, 20-16 Redskins.
Jacksonville Jaguars at PIttsburgh Steelers
Everybody and their brother has jumped off the Pittsburgh Steelers and onto the Jacksonville bangwagon. I'm not one of those people. Tom Jackson and I may be the only two people in the universe who think Pittsburgh is going to win this game. I understand that Jacksonville went to Pittsburgh and won not even a month ago. That was a great showing, and they are undoubtably among the leagues hottest teams, but lets look at the the key positions and who holds the advantages. At quarterback David Garrard is making his first career playoff start on the road, while Big Benny has already won a Super Bowl. To add to that, while everyone is all over Garrard and his efficiency, Roethlisberger had probably the best season for a quarterback not named Brady or Romo. The Steelers hold a serious edge at wide receiver with Hines Ward, Nate Washington and Santonio Holmes (I'll stop there because I can't name Jacksonville's receivers and I'm too lazy to look them up at this point). Defensively, the Steelers rank numero uno, and while the Jags made mince meat of it a few weeks ago, do you really think Mike Tomlin hasn't made some serious adjustments in the weeks leading up to this game? The nationwide perception of the Steelers has fallen off considerably since they took a beat down in Foxboro (thanks a lot Anthony Smith), but then again, who hasn't this season? I think the Steelers go into this game with a chip on their shoulder and show the world that they will once again be a factor in the AFC race and, with all do respect to Jacksonville, I think they do it emphatically, 27-10.
Sunday
New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I didn't have to look any further than the quarterbacks to decide the winner of this match-up. It kills me how fast the media can change their tune, just look at Eli Manning. The guy played miserable for much of the season, but he plays his best game of the season in WEEK 17 against New England and everyone is again saying that he is a franchise quarterback. The thing the Eli-lovers must have missed was that he threw his only interception of the game on his first pass after New England regained the lead late in the fourth quarter. I still look at Manning and see a quarterback that lacks composure and confidence, but that may just be the classic "Manning Demeanor." Whatever it is, he still turns the ball over too much (20 INT), and completes far too little of his passes (56% completions) for me to consider him a factor. He doesn't handle pressure well and you can bet that Jon Gruden will release the hounds on him today. On the flip side, you have Jeff Garcia. The fact that he is still playing amazes me. He made a few Pro Bowls in San Fran then signed as a free agent savior in Detroit (gulp) and Cleveland (yikes) only to be benched in both places. How many quarterbacks move on to lead a team to the playoffs after being benched in Cleveland and Detroit? Well it's not many, but here is one, and Garcia has done an admirable job. He, unlike Manning, is very calm in the pocket and doesn't turn the ball over, going 11 of the 13 games he started without throwing an interception. He also holds something else that Manning does not, and that would be the control and respect of the men in his huddle. The Giants can talk all they want about how they trust Eli, but just ask Tiki Barber how much respect Eli has in his own huddle. The last big thing Garcia has over Manning is a playoff win. Garcia won a number of them in San Francisco and won one last year for Philadelphia. The funny thing is that his last two playoff victories have come against the G-Men, in 2002 with SF and last year in Philly. After the Bucs take this game 23-14, I would like to know if it will be the first time in history that a quarterback beats a team in the playoffs as the starter for three different clubs.
Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers
This game was the hardest for me to pick. I love Vince Young and the aura he brings despite his hideous numbers this season (9 TD 17 INT), and I can't stand Philip Rivers and his trash talking Jay Cutler. I can't decide if the quarterbacks will completely decide this game or have little to do with the outcome. You know both teams will pound the ball, and that makes it hard for me to pick against San Diego because you know that LT will get at least 30 touches today. I think the Titans are better defensively then the Chargers, but if Haynesworth's hamstring is still nagging him, it's hard to believe that they will be able to contain the running game. It seems that all the injuries are building up on the Titans at the wrong time- Young, Bo Scaife, Roydell Williams, and Haynesworth- while the Chargers are completely healthy. Young being a game-time decision makes me want to pick the Titans because you know he will play and I have this feeling that he is going to give us that "put my team on my back and shock the world" performance that he constantly gave at Texas and in his rookie campaign last season, but he has been in and out of games too often lately for me to believe he's healthy enough to put out such an effort. I think the healthier and more experienced home team gets it done today. Mark this down because I can promise you that this will be the only time I ever pick a Norv Turner team to beat a Jeff Fisher team, 28-24 Chargers.
NostraDTMus
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