Dissecting the issues in Chicago

As you may have noticed, I predicted the Chicago Bulls to break through in 2007-08 and win the Eastern Conference. As of today, they are actually making me look like a professional member of the media; one who makes predictions thinking they know it all, but in reality are just as lost as a member of your high school goth club. The Bulls are 1-5 through six games and are coming off a 30-point home loss to the Toronto Raptors. They have also lost home games to the 76ers and Clippers, and have a road loss to Milwaukee. It's not quite time to panic, as the Bulls started 3-9 last year and finished with 49 wins and a playoff sweep of the then-World Champion Miami Heat. Here's a look at five things that have put Chicago in their current state, things they must address if I am going to look any smarter than my sister when it comes to sports predictions.

1. Lack of post presence: If you know anything about the NBA, you know that the Chicago Bulls, even in their championship years, had a serious lack of a player who could score on the low blocks. They start Ben Wallace, a $60M waste who is averaging an overwhelmingly bad 3.5 points and 4.8 rebounds in 27 minutes of play. Wallace is known for his defensive prowess and rebounding, so you figure those numbers will improve, but again, he gives you nothing in terms of offense. They have Tyrus Thomas at the four. Thomas is a great athlete with a ton of potential, but cannot play with his back to the basket, and gets pushed around by bigger, stronger forwards. A few nice players come off the bench- Joe Smith, Andres Nocioni- but are very similar to Thomas offensivly. Until the Bulls get a reliable post presence who can take attention away from the perimeter shooters, they will struggle.

2. Dying by the jumper: As TNT's Charles Barkley put it this week at the half of the Bulls/Pistons game, "You don't live by the jumper, you die by the jumper. The Bulls are dying by the jumper." Surprise, Surprise, Sir Charles was right. As a team, Chicago is shooting 38% as a team. Other then Luol Deng and Nocioni, the team's most reliable scorers are off to miserable starts shooting the ball. Ben Gordon is shooting 35%, Kirk Hinrich 32%, Chris Duhon 37%, Thabo Sefelosha 21%. These four players all are primarily jump shooters, and if they're all on on a given night, very few teams can beat them, however, that is very unlikely. Similar to Wallace's early troubles in his area of expertise, you figure the Bulls shooting percentages will go up because these guys are good shooters, but they need to find a way to get more points in the paint and more easy buckets in transition to offset the early shooting struggles.

3. Defense has been offensive: Stellar defense has been a staple of Scott Skiles teams the past couple seasons. The Bulls are consistently in the top-5 of points allowed and shooting percentage against. Opponents are shooting 43%, and 37% from three point land. In case you are unaware, that is very bad, especially the three point percentage. They are also allowing 96 ppg, which would finish about middle of the pack at seasons end, but it's a problem when your offense is only averaging 86 ppg. The team is full of energy players and capable defenders, and knowing the offense is struggling, the team should be that much more focused defensivly. They are also sitting at -3 for rebounding average on the season. Again, Ben Wallace was mistakenly given $60M to make sure that doesn't happen. He is killing the Bulls and my fantasy team.

4. Very little bench production: Of the team's 86.5 point average, the bench is averaging 32.2 of those points. That doesn't look bad at first glance, but you have to look a bit deeper to see the problem. Skiles has 11 players playing 17 minutes or more, so he goes very deep into his rotation. Seventeen minutes is more then enough time to find an offensive rhythem in a game, and very few are actually doing that for Chicago. Andres Nocioni has been admirable, averaging 11.7 points, and Joe Smith is putting in 8.7 a clip. As you see there, two of the six players bench players are accounting for 20.4 of the 32.2 points the bench produces. That means four players getting decent minutes are doing very little to justify their time on the court. The biggest problem lies at point guard where Chris Duhon is providing no relief from Kirk Hinrich's early struggles from the field when he comes into the game. Point guard is the team's most important position, especially when you have nothing on the low blocks, and the Bulls are getting nothing from either of theirs.

5. Kobe trade rumors: The front office made a mistake by getting active in the Kobe-chase just days before the regular season started. This clearly affected the team's best player, and bargaining chip, Luol Deng, and that has had a resonating affect on the team as a whole. Kobe is not only a drain on his own organization, but he's now proving to be a drain on other teams as well. Look, Luol Deng is not Kobe, but he is budding into a bonafide superstar, just ask the Miami Heat and Detroit Pistons. His numbers aren't bad right to this point, but he needs to be on the floor longer then his 33 minute average and the offense needs to go through him. What Skiles should do is give him the extra three minutes that he's instead giving to the league's best chucker, Ben Gordon. Deng is the team's best player, certainly their most efficient player on offense, and becoming a lockdown defender on defense. If the team is going to crawl out of this early hole, it's going to be because of Deng. If that is going to happen sooner rather then later, the front office needs to make it clear that this kid is not for sale, so that he may focus on getting his current team right, rather then thinking of going to another.

Until next time,
DTM