Handicapping the NFC Wild Card Race

Within the past five minutes I have noticed a statistic that is rather alarming. All eight division leaders in the NFL lead the second place team by at least two games. This shows that the NFL, a league once filled with parity, is turning more into a league that is top heavy and not much else- similar to the NBA. So with one month left in the season and the division races pretty much wrapped up, I decided that it would be a good time to handicap every team's chance in each conference of stealing the two wildcards. To break it down for you, I will allocate a number to each team and give one reason why they will make it and why they may be left out. The number will represent the teams odds of grabbing the wild card, and is based solely on the schedule they have remaining. Each game is worth five points; if the team has great odds to win the game they will receive five points, while if the odds are very poor they could receive a one or somewhere in between. This will be based on teams that I believe have a realistic shot, not a mathematical one. So for example, the Panthers are 5-7, but they are very bad and will not be included here. I'll start today with the NFC, followed by the AFC tomorrow.

NFC:
- Teams in the race: Arizona, Chicago, Detroit, Minnesota, New Orleans, NYG, Washington
(Alphabetical order, not order of finish)

1. Arizona Cardinals (6-6): 14
Will make playoffs because: Only one team (Seattle) remaining on their schedule has a record of.500 or better.
Will miss playoffs because: They struggle to run the ball and relying on Kurt Warner to carry an offense was so five years ago.

2. Chicago Bears (5-7): 10
Will make playoffs because: Rex Grossman is looking like the first rounder he was.
Will miss playoffs because: Devin Hester can only save your (behind) so many times. Oh yea, and they're from Chicago, meaning if it can go wrong, it will.

3. Detroit Lions (6-6): 5
Will make playoffs because: Riding their current four game skid, teams will forget they exist, similar to the way they did during their 6-2 start, and they will run the table to a wildcard berth.
Will miss the playoffs because: They have what could be the most difficult four game stretch to end the season (Dal., @SD, KC, @GB), and are low on confidence riding a four game losing streak.

4. Minnesota Vikings (6-6): 15
Will make the playoffs because: No team is better at running the ball and stopping the run.
Will miss the playoffs because: Tavaris Jackson is their quarterback!

5. New Orleans Saints (5-7): 11
Will make the playoffs because: Of the wildcard contenders, Brees, Bush and Colston is the most potent offensive threesome.
Will miss the playoffs because: They turn it over way too much and have too many teams to jump.

6. New York Giants (8-4): 14
Will make playoffs because: They lead every other NFC wild card contender by two games with four to go.
Will miss playoffs because: The Giants are 7-14 after Nov. in the Tom Coughlin era, and everyone would be talking about another swoon had they not staged a miracle comeback in Chicago on Sunday.

7. Washington Redskins (5-7): 10
Will make playoffs because: Some divine power is rooting for them heavily.
WIll miss playoffs because: They can't run the ball (Portis has just two 100 yd rushing games this season), and the Sean Taylor travesty will understandably be too much to overcome.

The final month should be very interesting because a number of these teams play eachother, meaning each team can help their own cause by knocking off another contender. Based on how they are playing now and the games that remain on the schedule, I believe the Giants and Vikings will complete the NFC playoff picture. I can't tell you how badly I wanted to put in Arizona over the Giants because I still feel like they will choke, but I also refuse to endorse the Cardinals. With that said, I am completely sold on Minnesota despite their quarterback troubles. If you can run the ball and stop the run you will go far in this league and, as I said in their analysis, no team in the NFL is better at doing those two things then Minnesota.

What two teams will earn the wildcards in the AFC? Check back tomorrow for my outlook on that. Until then, GO SPARTANS!

DTM