Impressions From "Boring" 2008 NBA Draft

One word has been used to describe last night's NBA Draft: boring. Newsflash: every professional sports league's draft is boring and over analyzed, yet the audience increases by the millions with each passing year. On the contrary, while it may have been dull this draft at least kept your attention throughout as there were 16 deals made during the draft or in the hours thereafter. I'll have to get out my book but that has to be some sort of record for the NBA. If not, the Portland Trailblazers had to have set a new landmark by swinging five of the 16. Who knows how any of the 60 players selected are going to pan out for the teams that selected them, but here's what I think of the all the action from Thursday night and a few guesses as to what we may be saying about the 2008 class 5-7 years down the line.

Best draft: New Jersey Nets. The Nets gave fans a reason to believe in the organization again after a disastrous 2007-08 season. The early trade of Richard Jefferson to Milwaukee for Yi Jianlian and Bobby Simmons looks confusing on the surface but it will rid them of RJ's ridiculous contract and give them cap space for the LeBron sweepstakes in 2010. As for their draft night selections, the Nets haven't had a decent big since Kenyon Martin in 2004 and they landed two in this draft in Stanford's Brooks Lopez and California's Ryan Anderson. In the past few years New Jersey has wasted time and money on bigs like Shawn Williams and Josh Boone, but make no mistake, these two will solidify the pivot very soon if not next season. Lopez and Anderson combined for 40 points, 19 rebounds and three blocks per game last season in the Pac-10 which, in my opinion, was the strongest conference in college basketball. I'm looking forward to watching this combination develop. They also made a great value pick at No. 40 with Memphis wing Chris Douglas-Roberts, a player most scouts saw as a late first rounder.

Worst draft: Seattle Sonics. I was going to say the Indiana Pacers, but they're going to get beaten up again here shortly so I figured I'd give it a deeper look and this is what I came up with. The Sonics needed a draft similar to the one the Nets had to give their fans in whatever city they play in next year some hope. Instead they draft Russell Westbrook from UCLA with the fourth pick. He projects as a point and Seattle already has two young ones in Luke Ridnour and Earl Watson. I know those names don't scare you, but why not have them as holdovers for another season and draft Brooks Lopez to anchor the middle where they currently have, uh, no one (sorry Nick Collison). Or draft D.J. Augustine or Jerryd Bayless. Or trade the picks for a veteran to help Kevin Durant. Do anything but take Westbrook at four. They noticed their need for a center a bit late because they drafted a big with their last four selections (Serge Ibaka-24, DJ White- 29, DeVon Hardin- 50, Sasha Kaun- 56). I'm confused as to what the Sonics strategy was and in a few years they will be too.

Biggest Steal: Most everybody will say Kansas' Darrell Arthur, but I'm going to go with Ohio State's Kosta Koufos. Koufos somehow landed in Utah's lap at 23 after most scouts saw his name coming off the board in the mid-late teens. When picking that late in the first round, general managers are looking for players with the potential to help their team in the future, but not so much the upcoming season. Koufos is perfect for Jerry Sloan's offense that needs big men with range to succeed. He shot 51 percent from the floor and 35 percent from deep last year so this is a player that could potentially step in right away and help the Jazz. Mehmet Okur could be the perfect mentor to Koufos early on and I see Koufos developing into a better version of Okur. He's fairly athletic for someone who is 7-1 and he blocked just under two shots per game last year in Columbus so the defensive potential is there as well.

Biggest Reach: Sacramento taking Rider PF Jason Thompson at No. 12. Thompson was projected as a late-first/early-second round pick and was taken in the lottery by Sactown. What? LSU's Anthony Randolph, who I never knew played a minute last year but everyone seems to be so high on, was still on the board as was Robin Lopez and Marreese Speights from Florida. ESPN's Chad Ford said Thompson is solid and nothing more and has reached his ceiling, meaning what you see now is what you're going to get. He averaged 20 points, 13 rebounds and almost three blocks last season, but there is some question whether his destruction of the MAAC will translate to the NBA. I would have to agree that the beasts of the blocks in the Western Conference are a bit tougher to deal with then whatever LeMoyne was throwing at him the past four years, so add me to the group of second guessers.

What were they thinking? Pick: The Charlotte Bobcats selecting D.J. Augustine with the ninth pick. The Bobcats could have very easily landed in the "Worst Draft" category, but drafting the Bob Cousy Award winner, given to the best point guard in college basketball, isn't necessarily a bad thing. I guess Micheal Jordan could chalk this up as taking the best player available rather than taking the biggest need, but I'm not buying it. Jordan was blessed when Brooks Lopez fell to nine and I bet you that even his ex-wife thought he wouldn't screw up and pass on him. Lo and behold, he did, but that's okay because M.J. made it clear long before Thursday night that he has no idea when it comes to talent evaluation (Adam Morrison over Brandon Roy and of course the whole Kwame Brown fiasco), which is weird based on that story that he saw Michael Finley becoming an NBA star when he met him in middle school. I always thought that story was a lie, too. Anyway, the BobJohnsonCats have Raymond Felton at point guard and Nazr Mohammad and Ryan Hollins playing next to Emeka Okafor. Doesn't that mean that the better choice would have been taking Lopez, who would have fit in perfectly next to the defensive minded, glass-eating Okafor? Well, hey, at least they paid millions to move up to No. 20 to take Alex Ajinca to make up for the mistake. Awful, Michael.

Best Deal/Worst Deal: Portland getting the rights to Jerryd Bayless and Ike Diogu from Indiana and sending them the rights to Brandon Rush and Jarrett Jack. Lucky for you this is a package deal which means less time you have to spend reading this garbage. Since I'm an optimist, let's start with the good part. The Blazers landed Bayless who, in my mind, is the best point guard in this draft to add to their bundle of young talent and potential all-stars. Diogu is no slouch either as he possesses strength, decent range and the ability to finish down low. I believe firmly that if Portland can keep its young core intact, and that will be a big if when the rookie contracts expire, they will be champions within the next five years and Bayless will be the one at the controls. His averages of 20 points and four assists at Arizona last year should eventually translate to the NBA because this kid has the full arsenal offensively and the weapons around him to create easy opportunities for. This also allows Brandon Roy to play off the ball full-time and not worry so much about being the distributer. Then throw in the twin towers of this era in Greg Oden and LaMarcus Aldridge and you have one scary monster growing in the Northwest.

On the flip side, the Indiana Pacers (sigh). This has nothing to do with this particular deal but you kick off draft day by getting rid of Jermaine O'Neal for a pair of old high tops and a wet towel, then you go and do this. Everyone knows and understands they are trying to rebuild, but you don't do that by throwing away your best asset. I also would like an explanation as to why Larry Bird dealt Bayless who, again, could turn into one of the great point guards of this generation for Jarrett Jack. Starting the rebuilding process by drafting a potentially great point guard is a great way to start, but trading one away for a back-up is very bad. The problem is that Jack will be Indiana's starter because all indications point to the organization buying out Jamaal Tinsley's contract sometime in the near future, leaving them with Jack and Travis Diener to run the offense. Huh? This rebuilding project looks to be one that is very long and drawn out and a lot of that has to do with this stumper. If you weren't sure as to why I wanted to nail the Pacers for having the worst draft, you may now have a better idea.

Second rounder most likely to achieve star status: Billy Walker, Kansas State, pick No. 47 by Boston. Second round picks generally end up becoming role players in the NBA or star players overseas, but rarely do they rise to reach the top flight of NBA players. Gilbert Arenas, Monta Ellis, Carlos Boozer, Rashard Lewis and Stephen Jackson are among the few that have and if someone from the class of 2008 is going to, it most likely will be Walker. Scouts say he could put Vince Carter's highlight reels to shame and would have been a lottery pick last year had he not injured his ACL. That may be the only thing that keeps Walker from becoming the player many believed he would and I'm going to go out on a limb and say he has a career comparable to the Mavericks Josh Howard. He averaged 16 and six playing next to Michael Beasley at KSU last year and it's hard to imagine him not having the same production on the NBA level if he can stay healthy. The talent is obviously there and him slipping to Boston late in the second may be a blessing in disguise because he will have no pressure to perform for the next year or two. If he uses that time to get his knees right, get his weight down and develop his game to go along with his freakish athletic ability, Walker will have the other 29 GM's wishing they had taken a chance. Mark it down.

Best Player: Derrick Rose, Memphis. I know, I know, I'm taking a real chance by saying the No. 1 pick will be the best player from this year's class. Well actually I may be. Go back 10 years to the 1998 draft, one that is now fair to evaluate. The Clippers took Michael Olowokandi with the first pick. The best player from that class? Paul Pierce, selected No. 10 by Boston. How about the 2001 class? Michael Jordan and the Washington Wizards had the first pick and took (gulp) Kwame Brown. The best player from '01, Gilbert Arenas, was taken 31 players later by Golden State. The point I'm trying to make is that No. 1 is far from a sure thing, but to me, Rose is about as sure as they come. The thing I love already is his situation. One reason many top picks don't pan out is because they get stuck on horrible teams and can't handle the burden of carrying a city. Rose landed in Chicago on a team that was projected by yours truly, and many professionals I might add, to win the Eastern Conference about eight months ago. That of course was an awful prediction, but there is much more talent on the Bulls roster than there is on most teams with the first pick. As of today he'll be playing with guys like Ben Gordon, Joakim Noah and Luol Deng, but my guess is that John Paxson will package Gordon and others to pick up a quality veteran that can help better the situation right away. Then there is Rose's game. He's got the complete package and all the tools to be just as special as Chris Paul or Deron Williams have recently become for their teams. Most importantly his college coach, John Calipari, said Rose has the desire to be the best point guard to ever play the game. You don't hear that type of endorsement from college coaches as often as you used to, but Calipari said it and meant it. A kid with his talent and any desire at all has to be a sure bet to become the best player from the 2008 draft class and maybe even more.

Biggest Bust: Anthony Randolph, LSU. I was going to go with Kevin Love here, but the more I watch his highlights and look at his numbers the more I think he will become nothing less than Emeka Okafor statistically. Any player selected in the lottery that does not pan out should be considered a bust and Randolph rounded out the lottery. I swear on everything holy that I had never heard of him until about a week ago and that says something because I follow college basketball religiously. Watching ESPN's clips of Randolph and looking at his numbers, I think of one player: Stromile Swift. Same build, same school, same raw ability that will ultimately amount to nothing. He averaged 16 points, eight rebounds and two blocks. Nice numbers, but he also has the shooting percentage of a shooting guard except a majority of his attempts come from about 8-10 feet closer. He also averages a Jason Kidd-like three turnovers per game despite the fact that he doesn't touch the ball anywhere near as much as a point guard does. Randolph put up solid numbers on a bad team, just like Swift. He is 6-10 and all of 197 lbs. I'm 6-1/185, do the math. The two things he has going for him that Swift didn't is he is going to Golden State, not Memphis, and he was the 14th pick, not the second. His draft profile compared him to Brandan Wright, who was the eighth pick in last year's draft and Randolph's new teammate. At this point, that's not a bad projection because, like Wright, the Warriors have no idea what they are getting in Randolph. But if I had to guess I would say he is the bust of 2008.

DTM